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General Election Prediction Poll

What do you think the outcome of the election will be?  

269 members have voted

  1. 1. What do you think the outcome of the election will be:

    • Labour Win
      32
    • Tory Win
      154
    • Hung Parliament
      83


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3 minutes ago, Patient London FTB said:

Boris could win the leadership but would be punished by the electorate for the 'let's give £350m to the NHS' history

Edit: it makes sense for him to address that skeleton by basing a campaign on promising to actually do what he was perceived to have said

Yep which basically means rolling back austerity. It's obviously uncharted territory for the Tories but they could learn something from Trump when he talks about infrastructure spending and making America great again, it is a big vote winner. But whether the Tory landowning elite will allow it is another matter.

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17 hours ago, Dorkins said:

Yeah right, hear this all the time. No food on supermarket shelves and the lights go out if house prices go back to 3x average wages. I can remember the mid 1990s, houses were cheap and martial law was not required. It's just a scare story. HPI had winners and losers, so will HPC.

I'm inclined to agree that a HPC will not necessarily entail a big recession. Depends on the speed/scale of the crash. In reality these things take place over five to seven years, rather than overnight. So say houses collapse by 50 percent in London and South East, and another 10 percent in the parts of the country that never recovered from 2008.

IF the economy can start to rebalance towards manufacturing and exports in that timeframe (taking advantage of the weak pound), then a HPC doesn't necessarily mean a long recession, but I think a short recession is inevitable due to the reliance of domestic consumer spending on HPI. 

But one of the reasons the economy is in such a mess is politicians have kicked the can down the road, not wanting a recession on their watch, and so pumped the housing market at any sign of negative economic data. Hence why prices are in some places 16 times earnings.

I think the public would now accept a politician who says, Listen, recessions happen, they are part of the economic cycle, and trying to prevent them does more harm than good. I would phrase it like that rather than saying "We are going to crash the housing market so young people can get on the ladder".

In the meantime, the fact we are going through a period of political instability is a good thing insofar as it will scare off the foreign investors who regard London property as a safe hedge. There is a lot of hot money swirling around and the sooner that disappears from London property, the better. 

Nine Elms flats will be 50 percent of current valuations in five years time.

Edited by thisisthisitmaybe

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On 05/06/2017 at 10:58 AM, ****-eyed octopus said:

 

Guido suggesting polls somewhat erroneous:

https://order-order.com/2017/06/02/tory-and-labour-candidates-all-believe-may-heading-for-comfortable-win/

And there was a Grauniad article saying something similar a couple of days ago (they shut comments down after the first one though). Seems to have disappeared ...

Ha ha Guido the clown strikes again.

seriously though why do people still bother with this Tory Shill Gobsh1te?

still living off his anti new labour glory days I can only presume.  Since 2010 he's become a sad irrelevant parody of himself. 

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20 minutes ago, thisisthisitmaybe said:

Yep which basically means rolling back austerity. It's obviously uncharted territory for the Tories but they could learn something from Trump when he talks about infrastructure spending and making America great again, it is a big vote winner. But whether the Tory landowning elite will allow it is another matter.

Fingers crossed they do something useful for once by not allowing it then, more vandalism? No thanks.

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19 hours ago, geezer466 said:

100 Things you need to know about Jeremy Corbyn..     ^_^

Quote

If Jeremy Corbyn is a 'terrorist sympathiser', then what will Theresa May be called when she joins with the DUP?

"Because if Jeremy Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser, what the hell do you call a political party that was endorsed by the Ulster Defence Association and the Red Hand Commando."

 

 
Edited by Saving For a Space Ship

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Not to toot my own horn (actually, to toot my own horn), but I wrote this on here the night before the election, and I think I got everything right except DUP instead of Lib Dems. I still think Maybot is gone. Just goes to show what 9 pints of focused on-the-street research can reveal. I wonder if YouGov will give me a job and an expenses account?

"My train was cancelled yesterday evening so I thought sod it, I will go for a pint.

Exit Highbury and Islington station and complete pandemonium. Corbyn's in town.

Never seen anything like it. What the Pollsters don't realise is how militant these young'uns are. Not only are they voting for a change, but they are also organised and ensuring all their friends are voting too. Ok I was in his backyard but he has mobilised the young vote across the country and that is a new factor in our politics.

Got chatting to some pretty young northern lasses outside the pub. We basically agreed their generation is screwed if things continue as they are. 

People talk about the UKIP vote going to the Tories but I think this isn't clear cut. Some are just born protesters who hate any government so they will vote for Labour to kick the current government in the nuts. Also many of them have been affected by austerity and are still angry.

My prediction is a hung parliament, with the Tories doing a deal with the Lib Dems, and an end to Maybot." 

Edited by thisisthisitmaybe

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48 minutes ago, thisisthisitmaybe said:

Yep which basically means rolling back austerity. It's obviously uncharted territory for the Tories but they could learn something from Trump when he talks about infrastructure spending and making America great again, it is a big vote winner. But whether the Tory landowning elite will allow it is another matter.

It also means winning people over by supporting a soft Brexit, at which point Boris will be knifed by the Brextremists

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1 hour ago, Will! said:

When the parliamentary conservative party identifies someone it believes can lead it to a majority at a general election, but plausible candidates are in short supply.  Personally I have £20 at 50/1 on Jeremy Hunt being the next Prime Minister. 

It's currently a poisoned chalice - any tory who has long term ambitions will keep a low profile - you will of course always get the 'look-at-me' self-publicists al a boris

I'd like to see Rory Stewart - very impressive individual, but I hope he has the good sense to keep his powder dry and let this sh!tstorm pass

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18 minutes ago, Driver said:

Ruth Davidson would be a good choice, shore up the Scottish vote, the gay vote and she is pretty down to earth too.

I don't think Ruth has the political maturity or experience (yet?).

A few weeks ago she had her own embarrassing u-turn (prescription charges)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39913881

Her pre-emptive jumping in with both feet on the supposed DUP/LGBT question could be seen as a strange sense of priorities on which to urgently approach the PM the morning after the GE
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-40229826
 

Hard to see how she could become a UK MP, and I don't think her Brexit priorities are any more likely to unite the Conservative party than those of other contenders.
 

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58 minutes ago, knock out johnny said:

I'd like to see Rory Stewart - very impressive individual, but I hope he has the good sense to keep his powder dry and let this sh!tstorm pass

Interesting choice. My parent's MP, and they seem impressed with him despite usually not saying much about politics. The impression I get from them is that he tries to make some effort for the constiutency. How that would all turn out if there was real power though?

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On 6/9/2017 at 11:55 AM, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Are they not teaching arithmetic in schools these days ?

I did well in Maths, but even better in English, meaning I can read things like this:

"The property market has been starkly divided since the financial crisis recovery. London, the South East and popular areas in the South bounced back strongly, while elsewhere around Britain prices remained stuck in the doldrums."

Are you saying that a HPC has taken place in London and the South East? 
Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-4588252/Will-shock-election-2017-result-cause-house-prices-fall.html#ixzz4jbkdoN00 
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

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1 hour ago, knock out johnny said:

I'd like to see Rory Stewart - very impressive individual, but I hope he has the good sense to keep his powder dry and let this sh!tstorm pass

 

15 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Interesting choice. My parent's MP, and they seem impressed with him despite usually not saying much about politics. The impression I get from them is that he tries to make some effort for the constiutency. How that would all turn out if there was real power though?

Like Maysan?  ;)

Stewart does seem very capable.

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50 minutes ago, Driver said:

Ruth Davidson would be a good choice, shore up the Scottish vote, the gay vote and she is pretty down to earth too.

I suppose it might at least mean that the LGBT community will finally have to STFU about all the the horrific ''issues'' of discrimination, inequality and exclusion that they supposedly suffer from.

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Ruth Davidson <==> Peter Kay

:o Same person? You decide.

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3 hours ago, thisisthisitmaybe said:

....Hence why prices are in some places 16 times earnings.

I think the public would now accept a politician who says, Listen, recessions happen, they are part of the economic cycle, and trying to prevent them does more harm than good. I would phrase it like that rather than saying "We are going to crash the housing market so young people can get on the ladder".

In the meantime, the fact we are going through a period of political instability is a good thing insofar as it will scare off the foreign investors who regard London property as a safe hedge. There is a lot of hot money swirling around and the sooner that disappears from London property, the better. 

Nine Elms flats will be 50 percent of current valuations in five years time.

 

Given where we are with house prices and BTLers with their claims on multiple properties, would prefer market events to remove it as any sort of choice from politicians, where they don't have the control.  Surely we must be close to that...?  

I refuse to pay these prices (even if perhaps I could with deposit and mortgage) for I am unwilling to be complicit in the madness.  Many others don't even have the choice.  It only requires more buyers to hold out, but it's a free-will free-choice market out there.

Just can't see any politican manouvering the way you/I would like them too.

Even if some politicians want it to happen, then they won't take on public responsibility for creating circumstances to give it a push.  Politicians would have to find some reasoning... scapegoating, blaming America, most likely.  

Hopefully the squeals from mad-gainz HPIers/BTLers will be drowned out by the happiness, like in 89-95, as people bought and families upsized, and oldies took losses to mad-gainz.... and sadly a few younger over-reachers came to learn it was not foreverHPI.  Although some of them deserved to be taught the lesson, including HPI+++ spreadsheet buyers, more excited about future mad gainz than owning a home.

On 11/27/2015 at 6:11 AM, Venger said:

"The search for scapegoats is in many respects silly. But it unintentionally makes a point that you should take to heart. When the news is bad and apt to get worse you cannot draw your bearings about the economy or the market from channels of mass communications.

Can you imagine a major newspaper (much less the leaders of the country) saying that stocks fell because objective conditions no longer supported their further rise?

Has it ever been recognised politically that a market has topped out? Or that an economy needed to go through a painful slump to facilitate a transition and shake out dead wood? In every case which we know, politicians have continued to pretend that all was well long after events provided impressive evidence to the contrary.." - Davidson

 

Know of a mid 30s couple who are set to complete on a £600K semi.. not in London nor the South East (and they both work for the same employer).  All happy, and powered by happy Bomads too.   After all, if such a semi is now worth £600K, then parents home must be worth new peak more too.

 

madgainz_pay_what_it_worth.jpg

 

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re the young people

I spent an interesting 5 minutes this afternoon openly laughing while typing at a young one (on mumsnet) who was horrified/aghast that the Conservative party seemed to be calling themselves the conservative and unionist party (because of their association with the DUP) I swiftly disabused the poor dear that this is one of the names they have always gone by:o

really- they are the perpetually offended on that forum who lack the brains/intellect to research the facts before sounding off.

labour voter of course and a JC fan no doubt.

I for one do not think that 'the young' have a monopoly on caring about things I and many other old 'gimmers' would love to see money pumped into the economy, for people who have mega-assets to pay their share, for house prices to fall, for the NHS to be more efficient but - as the song goes 'you can't always get what you want' :)

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7 hours ago, ****-eyed octopus said:

 

What I didn't realise was just how much of the vote May got - 44%, which are Thatcherite levels.

But so did Corbyn. Unprecedented for the losing party. How did he do it? He had a cunning plan.

What every party is looking for is a large, untapped voter pond. Corbyn found it. The yoof.

Young people have become increasingly disenfranchised (as we know on here only too well) but are traditionally apathetic - they couldn't see the relationship between voting & their daily lives. Jezza - or his advisors - reasoned that if they could use their activists to finally persuade them to engage, by using things they understood (social media, celebrity) & promised them loads of free stuff, they could get a result. And they have done, in spades.

Plus Jeremy is a good campaigner. particularly when you put him in front of uniformly adoring crowds, Trump style. May is, er, rubbish at, er,spontaneous rabble raising. Then she went & dissed her core vote with assaults on pensioners' comfy privileges.

As ever, politicians buy votes. The result had naff all to do with socilaist idealism; Corbyn just made the right offer to the right people. May didn't.

That's how democracy works.

 

Can't remember which unseated Tory it was, but when interviewed he basically said the same. Labour promised to give things, May promised to take things away.

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I have to say I don't blame the yoof at all for rebelling. It isn't the fact that they are having it worse than their parents, but the fact they are having it MUCH WORSE than their parents. For example:

- HPI has been stoked by the Tories who combined austerity with stimulus packages to get reflate the bubble

- Tuition fees TRIPLED in one go. Imagine saying to a pensioner we are going to cut your pension by a two-thirds. 

- The average millennial is lucky to find a job which last more than a year and a half. Unless you are in law, accountancy or academia, the traditional career is finished, and with it the hope of getting a mortgage (which would be fecking stupendously big anyway)

- To be blunt, the boomers are not dying. They are living a fecking long time, with pensions, healthcare, social care, all of which has to be shouldered by the working population. The Tory Manifesto was wrong to mention this, but it is inevitable that the elderly are going to have to pay for their own care if they are asset rich. 

Politics runs by the path of least resistance. The yoof never turned out to vote, hence they've been dumped on. Corbyn has changed all that. I don't think the yoof are actually that bothered about Brexit or multicult experiments, they just want to see a future for themselves, and until Corbyn arrived on the scene, they couldn't.

Edited by thisisthisitmaybe

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18 minutes ago, olliegog said:

re the young people

I spent an interesting 5 minutes this afternoon openly laughing while typing at a young one (on mumsnet) who was horrified/aghast that the Conservative party seemed to be calling themselves the conservative and unionist party (because of their association with the DUP) I swiftly disabused the poor dear that this is one of the names they have always gone by:o

really- they are the perpetually offended on that forum who lack the brains/intellect to research the facts before sounding off.

labour voter of course and a JC fan no doubt.

I for one do not think that 'the young' have a monopoly on caring about things I and many other old 'gimmers' would love to see money pumped into the economy, for people who have mega-assets to pay their share, for house prices to fall, for the NHS to be more efficient but - as the song goes 'you can't always get what you want' :)

A lot thrown into your mix there.

We each take our positions, and perhaps some shocks ahead to the foreverHPIers and BTLer superiors, who many backed, but now up against S24.

I can't see S24 being dropped for it's almost an economic necessity, and my read of the voting suggests a lot more attention has to be given to younger people vs the HPI madness with all the haves-and-have-even-mores (many of who try to shake off they are in such superior positions, and play the victim, and tell the young they want too much).

Things can change.  Only have to look back at some of the scorn some 'hpcers' (inc really big HPIers) gave to those who claimed it was possible that Conservatives lead might fall away... as they 

Quote

 

HPCer to BTLer bragging about his £ mad gainz £

You should never have been allowed to place those bets.

 I couldn't care less how you made out. 

Through your actions you were complicit in financial capture.

You've picked sides already, and you favoured  a horrid notion of yourself in splendid isolation over your ability to live equitably with your neighbour, (sorry, tenant), and damn the consequences. That speaks plainly to what you are.

 

We each make the system.

Quote

 

'Fair?' the Emperor shouted, coming to stand over Gurgeh, blocking the view of the distant fire. 'Why
does anything have to be fair ? Is life fair?' He reached down and took Gurgeh by the hair, shaking his
head. 'Is it? Is it?'

Gurgeh let the apex shake him. The Emperor let go of his hair after a moment, holding his hand as
though he'd touched something dirty. Gurgeh cleared his throat. 'No, life is not fair. Not intrinsically.'

'It's something we can try to make it, though,' Gurgeh continued. 'A goal we can aim for. You can choose to
do so, or not. We have.

...'You have not won, Gurgeh,' Nicosar said quietly, voice harsh, almost croaking. 'Your kind will never
win.' He turned back, looking down at him. 'You poor, pathetic male. You play, but you don't
understand any of this, do you?'

Gurgeh heard what sounded like genuine pity in the apex's voice. 'I think you've already decided that I
don't,'
he told Nicosar.

-Player of Games

 

I see one of the BTLers, who writes a lot to try and get S24 overturned, is having a right old go about Dorling 'not understanding' anything, and how Alan Sugar could wipe intellectually wipe the floor with Dorling. 

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1 hour ago, thisisthisitmaybe said:

I have to say I don't blame the yoof at all for rebelling. It isn't the fact that they are having it worse than their parents, but the fact they are having it MUCH WORSE than their parents. For example:

- HPI has been stoked by the Tories who combined austerity with stimulus packages to get reflate the bubble

- Tuition fees TRIPLED in one go. Imagine saying to a pensioner we are going to cut your pension by a two-thirds. 

- The average millennial is lucky to find a job which last more than a year and a half. Unless you are in law, accountancy or academia, the traditional career is finished, and with it the hope of getting a mortgage (which would be fecking stupendously big anyway)

- To be blunt, the boomers are not dying. They are living a fecking long time, with pensions, healthcare, social care, all of which has to be shouldered by the working population. The Tory Manifesto was wrong to mention this, but it is inevitable that the elderly are going to have to pay for their own care if they are asset rich. 

Politics runs by the path of least resistance. The yoof never turned out to vote, hence they've been dumped on. Corbyn has changed all that. I don't think the yoof are actually that bothered about Brexit or multicult experiments, they just want to see a future for themselves, and until Corbyn arrived on the scene, they couldn't.

But they are rebelling by voting for the party that introduced tuition fees and stoked HPI through the 2000s. Labour will do nothing to make the boomers pay for their own care as they'll just use the magic money tree rainforest, further ******ing the young of tomorrow. They are being PLAYED!

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1 minute ago, Northern Welsh Midlander said:

But they are rebelling by voting for the party that introduced tuition fees and stoked HPI through the 2000s. Labour will do nothing to make the boomers pay for their own care as they'll just use the magic money tree rainforest, further ******ing the young of tomorrow. They are being PLAYED!

Corbyn's Labour is very different from New Labour. And his voting record under New Labour was to disagree with pretty much everything the government put forward.

The young are not being played, they are being mobilised in the quest for power. If they can provide the votes to get Corbyn in power, he will happily screw the boomers. The Tories would do the same.

That's why democracy is always loaded in favour of the groups with the most voting power. 

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8 hours ago, slawek said:

Would that be the same Conservative Party whose MPs gave her 60% of the vote in the second ballot Tory leadership election last September !

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)_leadership_election,_2016

Glad to see they are expressing repentance for their actions.

For a failed politician Theresa May got a very big share of the popular vote on Thursday with her party getting over 42.4% of those who cast their ballot. Indeed the Tory share of the vote nationally was up more than 5% on 2015. Since 1970 only Margaret Thatcher in 1979 and Tony Blair in 1997 have gone over 43% and those were elections that marked significant points of political change.

I think that Tory MPs and members who believe that ditching May for Johnson, Gove etc and giving the manifesto a quick paint job will suddenly unleash a lot of untapped Conservative votes are simply deluded. The evidence is that to get a significant majority now the winning party need the opposition vote to be split substantially between different parties. Given the collapse of the UKIP vote and the subdued performance of the Lib Dems that did not happen last week. The reason May did not get a majority on Thursday is not that her supporters failed to turn up at the polls but that Corbyn did an excellent job in getting most of the anti-Tory vote united behind him. 

Edited by stormymonday_2011

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5 minutes ago, stormymonday_2011 said:

Would that be the same Conservative Party Members who gave her 60% of the vote in the second ballot Tory leadership election last September !

 

AFAIK after 2 rounds of voting by MPs May was the only candidate left and became leader-elect well before September, there being no need for a membership vote?

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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