General Election Prediction Poll

[Venger]

1 hour ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

In some ways I think the Tory massive pre election poll lead made them complacent.

You could see how that lead led them to propose several policies that would strike at the Tory core vote, including the much mis interpreted "dementia tax". I think the idea was that they had so much of a lead that they could do stuff like this and still win, making their life easier. I think the whole dementia tax thing was a real own goal. Definitely unnecessary. Then there did not seem to be enough Tory attacks on the Labour soak the rich taxation and key campaigners such as Hammond were notably absent. I see he is still very quiet

On the other side Corbyn responded with soak the rich and pork barrel politics. He also gained a lot in the charisma stakes, and to me came over a lot better on the TV debates (and actually turned up). I have little doubt that Corbyns policies would lead this country into a right mess, but they worked well for a public that wants to vote themselves free money.

Honestly didn't see anything of Hammond in the campaigning.

It seemed to me some Conservatives were trying to offer an honest outlook of tight financial situation ahead (and thus how triple-lock to possibly be unlocked), and more realistic about sharing burden of costs for care-home costs.   That some of the house to go into the equation toward costs.

I'm not sure whether it tilted some over to Labour or not.   Many are very protective of HPI, as I took notice of with Equitable Life... they would rather bring the whole thing down for others, than suffer anything to their guaranteed winz.

One thing is certain, it's fun to look back on all those lecturing Conservative easy mad-gainz sure-thing "already won it big" and who were laying into those with doubts.

On 4/19/2017 at 5:46 AM, Venger said:

Well all that suggests she has limited room for happy-happy giveaways, and will have to go for a harder "heaven pretty good/fair if you do, but the hell if you don't" approach, and hope they can sell it to enough voters.  Perhaps some faith that other parties just do not have enough about them that voters will peel away from Conservatives.

However some people look likely to lose out.  

And many individuals don't like losing out on their positions and could switch to who they think will do best by them.   Ask the Equitable Life GARs who put their own financial interests first (from what I have read).

And it's not impossible that other parties could see some renewed appeal if they offer more for certain vested interests, if they come out fighting.

 

Maybe there was something in Mikhail's (?) view about Conservatives not being so business friendly as well, and a turn against Conservatives from private enterprise?

Can't recall what Chancellor U-turned on in last Budget, but it wasn't business friendly.

Just guesses though.   Not the thumping Conservative victory some assumed though.

On 6/7/2017 at 6:47 PM, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I have only ever vote Conservative, but this time will vote Lib Dem, partly for a similar reason. I have always hated Theresa May's stance on liberty and personal freedom.

 

On 5/25/2017 at 11:04 PM, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Looks like Theresa's crypto socialist manifesto has been called out by the UK'S SMB firms.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/05/25/britains-small-businesses-overwhelmingly-reject-tory-manifesto/

Seriously I can't vote for this, it's fair to say the Lib Dems probably have the most free market manifesto.

 

On 5/29/2017 at 9:37 PM, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

But also unconvinving.  

Not in anyway a leader and certainly not real Prime MInister Material; only got their by default, last person standing in the Resevoir Dogs shoot out of the Tory party election.

 

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

20 minutes ago, Venger said:

Honestly didn't see anything of Hammond in the campaigning.

It seemed to me some Conservatives were trying to offer an honest outlook of tight financial situation ahead (and thus how triple-lock to possibly be unlocked), and more realistic about sharing burden of costs for care-home costs.   That some of the house to go into the equation toward costs.

I'm not sure whether it tilted some over to Labour or not.   Many are very protective of HPI, as I took notice of with Equitable Life... they would rather bring the whole thing down for others, than suffer anything to their guaranteed winz.

One thing is certain, it's fun to look back on all those lecturing Conservative easy mad-gainz sure-thing "already won it big" and who were laying into those with doubts.

 

Maybe there was something in Mikhail's (?) view about Conservatives not being so business friendly as well, and a turn against Conservatives from private enterprise?

Can't recall what Chancellor U-turned on in last Budget, but it wasn't business friendly.

Just guesses though.   Not the thumping Conservative victory some assumed though.

 

 

 

I live in Tory Heartlands and have been a party member.

I can tell you the members were not happy with Theresa May being foisted on them; also

At least 1/3 of the members are heavily pro-European, it used to be more, but the fruit cakes seemed to displace the more moderate members partly due to some sort of post Thatcherite cult growing that has no understanding of actual Thatcherism. Mrs Thatcher was actually a muscular Liberal, not some dreadful authoritarian like Theresa May.

Finally, the budget and the manifesto seem to have been documents accidentally jammed in the photocopier by Gordon Brown, which only come lose atter Cameron had left Downing Street.

(I blame the clergy based upbringings personally.)

 

Edited June 9, 2017 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[Venger]

41 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Of course or he wouldn't have got the job. However, he had a genuine dislike of BTL and amateur landlords in particular. 

A post is coming back to me of you having a chat with an MP, and maybe some anti-BTL position given to you in private, but I can't recall if it was Barwell.*

(?)

I've not seen any anti-BTL positioning from him in public though.  Anyway he's gone now.

14 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

My MP (Gavin Barwell) is toast then 

----------

* Ah yes - below.

On 10/9/2016 at 11:20 PM, Dorkins said:

Leave inheritance to grandkids to solve housing crisis
Started by Nabby81, October 9, 2016

It's not the Telegraph saying this, it's the blimmin' Housing Minister, Gavin Barwell:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/09/inheritance-should-skip-a-generation-says-minister/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 

On 10/9/2016 at 11:44 PM, Scunnered said:

This guy's just brimming over with brilliant ideas. 

Should be able to buy a house, your own place to live, from earnings.  Hard-work.  Achievement.  Not all dependent on housing wealth of family who've gone before you.

On 10/14/2016 at 1:33 PM, Confusion of VIs said:

He is actually a very good constituency MP, who has a genuine interest in housing and is not a fan of either BTL or amateur LLs.

I looked at the sources of the headlines about reducing minimum flat sizes and passing on inheritances to the grandchildren. The first seems to have been a generalisation based upon comments about a specific type of student accommodation. The second was a deliberate misrepresentation to generate a headline, he actually said he would not want to live in a country where you needed an inheritance to afford to buy a home.     

 

Whatever.  I didn't notice much of him apart from many Tweets about litter.   I think he was under instruction when did some of those meetings about housing at local venues (as I remember it) with pre-agreed statement to give the BTLers set to complain about S24.

On 7/18/2016 at 1:52 PM, Confusion of VIs said:

On a brighter note, I have spoken to him about housing issues (in general) a couple of times and gained the impression that he is no fan of BTL or amateur landlords.

 

On 11/11/2016 at 3:50 PM, Confusion of VIs said:

Don't tell P118 but I had a brief conversation with Gavin Barwell last night and took the chance to ask if there was any chance of the government going back on implementing C24. I was expecting to be given something along the lines of a no plans at the moment response but instead got a pretty unequivocal no.  

 

[zugzwang]

1 hour ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

There's nothing extreme about any of it so long as you are prepared to fund it in a way that is not vunerable to short term fluctuation.

But he won't. He'll fund it through QE (currency tax) or borrowing and he won't have any control over when the plug is pulled. At that point everything goes tits up.

Labour's spending plans are broadly funded out of general taxation but the point is irrelevant. The UK private sector is still crippled by debt and will have to be supported by govt borrowing on an unprecedented scale for at least another ten years while it deleverages. Even the Tories are aware of it, hence the deficit reduction horizon being pushed back to 2025-26. In effect, indefinitely suspended.

[olliegog]

1 hour ago, rollover said:

That's shocking election result

 

 

it is shocking re diane abbott

was it a sympathy vote because she is ill?

Edited June 9, 2017 by olliegog
a

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

18 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Labour's spending plans are broadly funded out of general taxation but the point is irrelevant. The UK private sector is still crippled by debt and will have to be supported by govt borrowing on an unprecedented scale for at least another ten years while it deleverages. Even the Tories are aware of it, hence the deficit reduction horizon being pushed back to 2025-26. In effect, indefinitely suspended.

The Tories will borrow a lot of money. Labour will borrow even more and tax more. How much will depend on how much tax they can actually raise, especially from corporates which have a nasty habit of finding ways round it.

You only have to look at the manifestos to see that Labours is all about pork and more about ideology than realism. They would try to tax and probably fail, and then borrow their way to oblivion. I don't see that as a realistic scenario though. I don't see how Labour can gain power. Even when you look at the mess the Tories made of this election they still need too many seats. 

[Saving For a Space Ship]

  Five things you need to know about DUP politicians and science

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2134162-five-things-you-need-to-know-about-dup-politicians-and-science/

[Shrink Proof]

[Maynardgravy]

28 minutes ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

  Five things you need to know about DUP politicians and science

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2134162-five-things-you-need-to-know-about-dup-politicians-and-science/

Good grief. That makes the tea party look almost sane.

[Impatiently Waiting]

1 hour ago, hotairmail said:

Without Scotland they will always be forming minority government if at all.

Strategically they need to get rid of the SNP. Now voters have resoundingly told the SNP they do not want another referendum and independence, there seems little point in them now. They should really be on a similar trajectory to UKIP from now on if the Tories and Labour play this right.

SNP are the biggest party in Scotland and got 37% of the vote. 

 

They got a bloody nose for indyref2 but still have a lot of support. Interestingly a lot of people that support SNP don't support independence. They like their policies apart from independence and are happy to vote for them normally. Last nights result would have been very different if indyref2 hasn't been announced a few months back.

[geezer466]

42 minutes ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

  Five things you need to know about DUP politicians and science

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2134162-five-things-you-need-to-know-about-dup-politicians-and-science/

 

100 Things you need to know about Jeremy Corbyn..    

 

1. Invited two IRA members to parliament two weeks after the Brighton bombing.
2. Attended Bloody Sunday commemoration with bomber Brendan McKenna.
3. Attended meeting with Provisional IRA member Raymond McCartney.
4. Hosted IRA linked Mitchell McLaughlin in parliament.
5. Spoke alongside IRA terrorist Martina Anderson.
6. Attended Sinn Fein dinner with IRA bomber Gerry Kelly.
7. Chaired Irish republican event with IRA bomber Brendan MacFarlane.
8. Attended Bobby Sands commemoration honouring IRA terrorists.
9. Stood in minute’s silence for IRA gunmen shot dead by the SAS.
10. Refused to condemn the IRA in Sky News interview.
11. Refused to condemn the IRA on Question Time.
12. Refused to condemn IRA violence in BBC radio interview.
13. Signed EDM after IRA Poppy massacre massacre blaming Britain for the deaths.
14. Arrested while protesting in support of Brighton bomber’s co-defendants.
15. Lobbied government to improve visiting conditions for IRA killers.
16. Attended Irish republican event calling for armed conflict against Britain.
17. Hired suspected IRA man Ronan Bennett as a parliamentary assistant.
18. Hired another aide closely linked to several convicted IRA terrorists.
19. Heavily involved with IRA sympathising newspaper London Labour Briefing.
20. Put up £20,000 bail money for IRA terror suspect Roisin McAliskey.
21. Didn’t support IRA ceasefire.
22. Said Hamas and Hezbollah are his “friends“.
23. Called for Hamas to be removed from terror banned list.
24. Called Hamas “serious and hard-working“.
25. Attended wreath-laying at grave of Munich massacre terrorist.
26. Attended conference with Hamas and PFLP.
27. Photographed smiling with Hezbollah flag.
28. Attended rally with Hezbollah and Al-Muhajiroun.
29. Repeatedly shared platforms with PFLP plane hijacker.
30. Hired aide who praised Hamas’ “spirit of resistance“.
31. Accepted £20,000 for state TV channel of terror-sponsoring Iranian regime.
32. Opposed banning Britons from travelling to Syria to fight for ISIS.
33. Defended rights of fighters returning from Syria.
34. Said ISIS supporters should not be prosecuted.
35. Compared fighters returning from Syria to Nelson Mandela.
36. Said the death of Osama Bin Laden was a “tragedy“.
37. Wouldn’t sanction drone strike to kill ISIS leader.
38. Voted to allow ISIS fighters to return from Syria.
39. Opposed shoot to kill.
40. Attended event organised by terrorist sympathising IHRC.
41. Signed letter defending Lockerbie bombing suspects.
42. Wrote letter in support of conman accused of fundraising for ISIS.
43. Spoke of “friendship” with Mo Kozbar, who called for destruction of Israel.
44. Attended event with Abdullah Djaballah, who called for holy war against UK.
45. Called drone strikes against terrorists “obscene”.
46. Boasted about “opposing anti-terror legislation”.
47. Said laws banning jihadis from returning to Britain are “strange”.
48. Accepted £5,000 donation from terror supporter Ted Honderich.
49. Accepted £2,800 trip to Gaza from banned Islamist organisation Interpal.
50. Called Ibrahim Hewitt, extremist and chair of Interpal, a “very good friend”.
51. Accepted two more trips from the pro-Hamas group PRC.
52. Speaker at conference hosted by pro-Hamas group MEMO.
53. Met Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh several times.
54. Hosted meeting with Mousa Abu Maria of banned group Islamic Jihad.
55. Patron of Palestine Solidarity Campaign – marches attended by Hezbollah.
56. Compared Israel to ISIS, Hamas, Hezbollah and al-Qaeda.
57. Said we should not make “value judgements” about Britons who fight for ISIS.
58. Received endorsement from Hamas.
59. Attended event with Islamic extremist Suliman Gani.
60. Chaired Stop the War, who praised “internationalism and solidarity” of ISIS.
61. Praised Raed Salah, who was jailed for inciting violence in Israel.
62. Signed letter defending jihadist advocacy group Cage.
63. Met Dyab Jahjah, who praised the killing of British soldiers.
64. Shared platform with representative of extremist cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.
65. Compared ISIS to US military in interview on Russia Today.
66. Opposed proscription of Hizb ut-Tahrir.
67. Attended conference which called on Iraqis to kill British soldiers.
68. Attended Al-Quds Day demonstration in support of destruction of Israel.
69. Supported Hamas and ISIS-linked Viva Palestina group.
70. Attended protest with Islamic extremist Moazzam Begg.
71. Made the “case for Iran” at event hosted by Khomeinist group.
72. Photographed smiling with Azzam Tamimi, who backed suicide bombings.
73. Photographed with Abdel Atwan, who sympathised with attacks on US troops.
74. Said Hamas should “have tea with the Queen”.
75. Attended ‘Meet the Resistance’ event with Hezbollah MP Hussein El Haj.
76. Attended event with Haifa Zangana, who praised Palestinian “mujahideen”.
77. Defended the infamous anti-Semitic Hamas supporter Stephen Sizer.
78. Attended event with pro-Hamas and Hezbollah group Naturei Karta.
79. Backed Holocaust denying anti-Zionist extremist Paul Eisen.
80. Photographed with Abdul Raoof Al Shayeb, later jailed for terror offences.
81. Mocked “anti-terror hysteria” while opposing powers for security services.
82. Named on speakers list for conference with Hamas sympathiser Ismail Patel.
83. Criticised drone strike that killed Jihadi John.
84. Said the 7/7 bombers had been denied “hope and opportunity”.
85. Said 9/11 was “manipulated” to make it look like bin Laden was responsible.
86. Failed to unequivocally condemn the 9/11 attacks.
87. Called Columbian terror group M-19 “comrades”.
88. Blamed beheading of Alan Henning on Britain.
89. Gave speech in support of Gaddafi regime.
90. Signed EDM spinning for Slobodan Milosevic.
91. Blamed Tunisia terror attack on “austerity”.
92. Voted against banning support for the IRA.
93. Voted against the Prevention of Terrorism Act three times during the Troubles.
94. Voted against emergency counter-terror laws after 9/11.
95. Voted against stricter punishments for being a member of a terror group.
96. Voted against criminalising the encouragement of terrorism.
97. Voted against banning al-Qaeda.
98. Voted against outlawing the glorification of terror.
99. Voted against control orders.
100. Voted against increased funding for the security services to combat terrorism.

[zugzwang]

52 minutes ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

  Five things you need to know about DUP politicians and science

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2134162-five-things-you-need-to-know-about-dup-politicians-and-science/

Bronze Age attitudes to sexuality and marriage too. That's going to be a problem.

Quote

Ruth Davidson signalled her opposition to Theresa May’s deal with the DUP in blunt fashion by tweeting a link to the same-sex marriage lecture she gave at Amnesty 's Pride lecture in Belfast last year.

The Scottish Tory leader is engaged to Jen Wilson, an Irish Catholic Christian who campaigned during the Republic's same-sex marriage referendum, is a practising Christian herself and has said she would like to get married in her local church.

Her views could not be further from those of the DUP, a staunch opponent of same-sex marriage and supporter of the “traditional” definition of marriage.

Speaking of the pro-marriage equality movement, party leader Arlene Foster said in 2016: “They are not going to influence me by sending me abuse – in fact, they are going to send me in the opposite direction and people need to reflect on that.”

Ian Paisley Jr, son of the party’s founder Ian Paisley, has previously called homosexuality “immoral, offensive and obnoxious”. 

Ms Davidson made her point by tweeting: “As a Protestant Unionist about to marry an Irish Catholic, here’s the Amnesty Pride lecture I gave in Belfast”.

She said in the emotional speech that she believed reform on the issue of gay marriage was inevitable in Northern Ireland, despite objections from unionists.

Asked for her views on a coalition with the DUP, she offered a less than ringing endorsement, saying: “What's clear is that we need to ensure that as the parliament reconvenes in Westminster, the Government brings forward a Queen's Speech on the 19th and I support all efforts to do that.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/09/ruth-davidson-distances-dup-deal-tweeting-link-gay-pride-lecture/

 

Edited June 9, 2017 by zugzwang

[GrizzlyDave]

[slawek]

An interesting graph showing that the high polarisation of voters by age is a recent phenomena. It looks like a "war" between young and old using Cons and Lab as proxies.    

[slawek]

16 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

A good find. 

[Shrink Proof]

The Conservative MP for Reigate, Crispin Blunt: "the electorate plainly have got it wrong."

https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/873080414583136256

Oh gosh, awfully sorry Crispin, we forgot. In future we'll all try to remember that we work for you. Look, why don't you take some more tax from us if that'll help smooth things over?

[LittlePig]

4 minutes ago, Shrink Proof said:

The Conservative MP for Reigate, Crispin Blunt: "the electorate plainly have got it wrong."

https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/873080414583136256

Oh gosh, awfully sorry Crispin, we forgot. In future we'll all try to remember that we work for you. Look, why don't you take some more tax from us if that'll help smooth things over?

Hmmm... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Die_Lösung

 

After the uprising of the 17th of June

The Secretary of the Writers Union

Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee

Stating that the people

Had forfeited the confidence of the government

And could win it back only

By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier

In that case for the government

To dissolve the people

And elect another?

[geezer466]

8 minutes ago, slawek said:

A good find. 

Yes because it was Thursday 6th May yesterday ......   

[Toast]

7 hours ago, kzb said:

Shocked to hear that 20-25% of votes are POSTAL.

When is the earliest you can vote by post?

Many of these voters will have voted before the terrorist attacks, and indeed before the main party manifestos were actually published.

How is this allowed?

I had a postal vote this time (I was out of the country at the last election, and forgot to cancel it). I think, with an important caveat to follow, that spreading the voting out makes the result less a hostage to a one-off event; or, put slightly differently, it reduces the power of anyone (be he a politician, media tycoon or madman, or some combination thereof) tying to game the outcome. That caveat is that people have to take voting seriously: I waited until the manifestos were out, and then , God help me, actually read them. Perhaps that was taking things too seriously, as I'm never going to get that time back, but I think the principle is sound.

Edited June 9, 2017 by Toast
No edit: this was put as "hidden", for no obvious reason, and wondered whether editing would unstick it. Seems to be happening a lot to other posters too.

[geezer466]

12 minutes ago, slawek said:

An interesting graph showing that the high polarisation of voters by age is a recent phenomena. It looks like a "war" between young and old using Cons and Lab as proxies.    

 

The older age groups have experience living under a hard left Labour Government and have learnt from that...

The Younger age groups still have that little nuance to live through.......

[Toast]

18 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

My MP (Gavin Barwell) is toast then 

There seems to be quite a queue forming for that role recently, but it's not vacant.

[oracle]

10 hours ago, crashmonitor said:

Soft Brexit and freedom of movement has as much to do with it. I think the Market has this wrong because we have chaos in store. ( the 250 is down)

The fact May will try and cling on makes things worse. She's a dead duck.

 

kind of agree here.

markets pricing in a less hardline stance, soft brexit if you will and some kind of norway style deal.

now that very much depends on the EU's position..there are some in the EU that will see this as gaining the upper hand and will want to extract the most punitive deal possible, to discourage others from attempting to leave...however,I still suspect with DUP coalition, if the EU tries to stamp down and take advantage, the walk away option is still very much on the cards, but to some of the other "tentatives" in the EU, the victimisation/punishment route is going to look a bit too familiar from what they were escaping not so many years ago, and the nordics have always been on our side..so there will be plenty of them looking for the offski should the EU play hardball.

and then you have spain and italy, who want a more centralised EU but their banks are toast,and will need recovery, which will come at a big price(which we will not be footing the bill for)

[stormymonday_2011]

4 hours ago, copydude said:

Of course it is. She is damaged by it and it has weakened her position in Europe.

Moreover, having to survive by teaming up with an unspeakable bunch of paramilitary headcases like the DUP is . . . degrading at the very least, if not bizarre.

Bad for May whose reputation as a shrewd political operator has been badly damaged

She backed what she thought was an odds on option and lost

As far as the Tory party is concerned they have endured much worse disasters. They only suffered a net lost of 12 MPs so far and Labour are still over 50 seats away from replacing them as the largest party and are still 65 seats away from getting an outright majority in Parliament.As a consequence May is in a far stronger position than Harold Wilson's minority government of 1974 which only had a 4 seat margin over the next biggest party. in addition the Tories have a significant outright majority of over 50 MPs in England over all other parties combined. As a consequence they need no support from any other party to carry legislation purely relating to England (or England and Wales for that matter) where Scottish and Northern Irish MPs can no longer vote. This means they can get significant chunks of legislation through Parliament without breaking a sweat. The only way the Conservatives can be forced to the polls under the current Parliament act is if they agree to dissolve Parliament since it requires a two thirds majority of MPs.Alternatively, Corbyn can cobble together a coalition of about 6 parties including the DUP for a no confidence vote which seems unlikely. As a consequence unless the Tories spectacularly self destruct internally or the grim reaper produces a bumper crop of by-elections in marginals then they are going to be calling the shots in British politics until 2022 whether people like it or not

Edited June 9, 2017 by stormymonday_2011

[oracle]

11 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I did predict this a while back.

Certainly she it needs to be delayed, even DD recognises this.

I think the EU will demand cancellation.

easy solution there is say "ok we have german elections coming up in september, some new faces etc etc, so let's postpone it till then, reshuffle, go on holiday and so on and then come back to it after everyone is organised"

and proffer an olive branch to germany saying we'll take a look at that "associate member" option.

[Dorkins]

22 minutes ago, slawek said:

An interesting graph showing that the high polarisation of voters by age is a recent phenomena. It looks like a "war" between young and old using Cons and Lab as proxies.    

Let's hope Labour don't disappoint the young the way the Lib Dems did.