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General Election Prediction Poll

What do you think the outcome of the election will be?  

269 members have voted

  1. 1. What do you think the outcome of the election will be:

    • Labour Win
      32
    • Tory Win
      154
    • Hung Parliament
      83


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30 minutes ago, NuBrit said:

Labour win Kensington.

You couldn't make this up, more millionaire ''Socialists'' salivating about the prospect of the freedom of movement propping up their assets (especailly house prices). Whilst the Tories living in their 20k miner cottages in north East Derbyshire and Mansfield are drowning their sorrows at the local miner's club. The new Tory heartlands, Mansfield..........

 

pleasley-mansfield-nottinghamshire-engla

Edited by crashmonitor

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35 minutes ago, NuBrit said:

Labour win Kensington.

A third General Election count in Kensington will begin this evening, authorities have said.

The Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea said the recount would take place at 6pm.

http://www.itv.com/news/london/2017-06-09/third-kensington-election-count-taking-place-tonight/

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19 minutes ago, NuBrit said:

I think the Conservative party will be able to trudge on just fine. The DUP on the other hand, minority coallition partners historically get smashed to bits the next time they go to the polls. Considering the high water mark the DUP are at, I think it's likely they will take a kicking next time

NI doesn't have elections, they have tribal headcounts. The DUP will be fine because their vote won't go anywhere else, and if they abstain or spoil their ballot they will let the other tribe win.

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8 minutes ago, White Craw said:

A third General Election count in Kensington will begin this evening, authorities have said.

The Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea said the recount would take place at 6pm.

http://www.itv.com/news/london/2017-06-09/third-kensington-election-count-taking-place-tonight/

I think it was waived by the Conservatives

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31 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

You couldn't make this up, more millionaire ''Socialists'' salivating about the prospect of the freedom of movement propping up their assets (especailly house prices). Whilst the Tories living in their 20k miner cottages in north East Derbyshire and Mansfield are drowning their sorrows at the local miner's club. The new Tory heartlands, Mansfield..........

 

pleasley-mansfield-nottinghamshire-engla

I suspect that Kensington has far fewer (wealthy) British residents than it once did. But still retains a number of council estates which help the Labour vote. Would need to check the boundaries to see exactly what areas are included. 

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12 minutes ago, moneyfornothing said:

What is the general feeling on commonwealth citizens having the power to vote in British elections? Are people aware that this exists?

Only found this out a few years ago, when a kiwi colleague informed me he was voting.

 

To me it is something open to abuse, especially by our Pakistani and Bangladeshi friends.  Would be simple to change the law.

 

To me it blows my mind that the Tories are so f00kin dumb that they didn't use there majority to change things like this (and also push through the boundary changes, which apparently some Tories weren't keen on as they may lose their seats)

Edited by reddog

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6 hours ago, fru-gal said:

Gavin Barwell lost his seat :D.

:o

2 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Why so happy, he was the nearest thing to an anti landlord HPC supporting housing minister you are likely to find in government.

Always seemed to me like he took directions from above.

Never saw him as anti-BTL at all.

Bye bye Barwell.

Quote

 

Tory Housing Minister attacked ban on letting fees just weeks before banning them
Gavin Barwell had claimed the policy would cause rents to rise

Wednesday 23 November 2016

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/letting-fees-ban-landlords-gavin-barwell-attacked-a7433566.html

 

 

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In some ways I think the Tory massive pre election poll lead made them complacent.

You could see how that lead led them to propose several policies that would strike at the Tory core vote, including the much mis interpreted "dementia tax". I think the idea was that they had so much of a lead that they could do stuff like this and still win, making their life easier. I think the whole dementia tax thing was a real own goal. Definitely unnecessary. Then there did not seem to be enough Tory attacks on the Labour soak the rich taxation and key campaigners such as Hammond were notably absent. I see he is still very quiet :)

On the other side Corbyn responded with soak the rich and pork barrel politics. He also gained a lot in the charisma stakes, and to me came over a lot better on the TV debates (and actually turned up). I have little doubt that Corbyns policies would lead this country into a right mess, but they worked well for a public that wants to vote themselves free money.

 

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1 hour ago, reddog said:

So is this peak Corbyn?

 

Or will he come up with even more extreme policies ready to win the next election?

What's extreme about rent controls and wanting to bring house prices back in line with incomes? What's extreme about clamping down on corporate tax avoidance and casino banking? What's extreme about providing people with job security, properly funded and regulated public services and lower utility bills?

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5 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

What's extreme about rent controls and wanting to bring house prices back in line with incomes? What's extreme about clamping down on corporate tax avoidance and casino banking? What's extreme about providing people with job security, properly funded and regulated public services and lower utility bills?

On the last one, rather a lot if you can't afford to do that.

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5 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

What's extreme about rent controls and wanting to bring house prices back in line with incomes? What's extreme about clamping down on corporate tax avoidance and casino banking? What's extreme about providing people with job security, properly funded and regulated public services and lower utility bills?

There's nothing extreme about any of it so long as you are prepared to fund it in a way that is not vunerable to short term fluctuation.

But he won't. He'll fund it through QE (currency tax) or borrowing and he won't have any control over when the plug is pulled. At that point everything goes tits up.

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29 minutes ago, reddog said:

Only found this out a few years ago, when a kiwi colleague informed me he was voting.

 

To me it is something open to abuse, especially by our Pakistani and Bangladeshi friends.  Would be simple to change the law.

 

To me it blows my mind that the Tories are so f00kin dumb that they didn't use there majority to change things like this (and also push through the boundary changes, which apparently some Tories weren't keen on as they may lose their seats)

That's practically a Labour vote bloc there .. 

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The Tories need to stretch things out until September next year.Thats when the final boundary changes are put forward and probably need to be passed into law.Looking at demographics and the Labour client state still flooding in,if the Tories dont make it to then they could be out of power for a long time.The Tories will gain around 20 seats as things stand through it.

May really has caused them a disaster here if they go to the country before that.

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This result isn't so bad for May. She still has the same majority as before, 5 years on the election clock and isn't limited by the Cameron-Osborne manifesto.

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11 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

This result isn't so bad for May. She still has the same majority as before, 5 years on the election clock and isn't limited by the Cameron-Osborne manifesto.

If you were a Tory big gun, would you want to help her form a government knowing you would not be in the next one ?

Or would you wait for the collapse and try to get a position in the next one ?

Her biggest problem is her own party. The DUP will happily fall into line in return for their demands being met, which probably won't be too onerous.

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14 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

This result isn't so bad for May. She still has the same majority as before, 5 years on the election clock and isn't limited by the Cameron-Osborne manifesto.

Did you see the election results?

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3 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

This result isn't so bad for May. 

Of course it is. She is damaged by it and it has weakened her position in Europe.

Moreover, having to survive by teaming up with an unspeakable bunch of paramilitary headcases like the DUP is . . . degrading at the very least, if not bizarre.

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1 hour ago, Venger said:

:o

Always seemed to me like he took directions from above.

Never saw him as anti-BTL at all.

Bye bye Barwell.

 

Of course or he wouldn't have got the job. However, he had a genuine dislike of BTL and amateur landlords in particular. 

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6 hours ago, Dorkins said:

Good for HPC I think. Politicians will start being scared of the young, might make them a bit more reluctant to repeatedly bash the pro-HPI policy button.

On the one hand I agree that politicians will start paying attention to the young.  On the other, I think May showed that messing with peoples houses (the Social Care policy), can hit their vote.

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According to Robert Peston a senior Tory MP said:

"We all f***ing hate her. But there is nothing we can do. She has totally f***ed us".

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27 minutes ago, copydude said:

Of course it is. She is damaged by it and it has weakened her position in Europe.

Moreover, having to survive by teaming up with an unspeakable bunch of paramilitary headcases like the DUP is . . . degrading at the very least, if not bizarre.

"The future's crap. The future's Orange."

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