General Election Prediction Poll

[Dorkins]

11 minutes ago, fru-gal said:

She was a remainer. I am not a conspiracy theorist but I wouldn't be surprised if this was the plan all along (to sabotage Brexit). Nothing else can explain such a woeful performance from the Tories.

If running an awful campaign and losing the majority was the plan, May has executed it to perfection.

[Bruce Banner]

11 minutes ago, fru-gal said:

She was a remainer. I am not a conspiracy theorist but I wouldn't be surprised if this was the plan all along (to sabotage Brexit). Nothing else can explain such a woeful performance from the Tories.

Only after much procrastination!

In the end, at the eleventh hour, she decided that Remain suited her agenda best.

[thisisthisitmaybe]

50 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Stop embarrassing yourself son. 

 

I'd like to see that chart instead just for London and the South East. There has been no crash here, just a continuation of existing HPI. But as I've said before I think that is now changing.

[koala_bear]

12 minutes ago, AvoidDebt said:

Tweet from Henry Pryor. First insight into reaction from property scamsters? 

Shares in house builders have suffered reports @BBCSimonJack - concerns over the economy but also perhaps loss of housing strategy? 

Housing Minister lost his seat...

[NuBrit]

4 minutes ago, fru-gal said:

I thought they wanted the exact opposite (no border, soft brexit)?

They want to have a soft border with open trade but no special status within in the EU to and want to fully exit the customs union, single market, etc.

Basically, they want to have the cake and eat it. 

[winkie]

All people want is the truth, openness, fairness and transparency, fed up with the lies and obfuscation, not saying something one day and another the following week, keep slagging off the opposition,unable to answer simple relevant questions, treating the electorate as idiots, huge divisions and egos inside parties......want to know the plan, how going to get there, along with the consequences of outcomes.....how can any party lead a country, win a majority when they can't even agree within themselves....nuts.

[Confusion of VIs]

3 hours ago, fru-gal said:

Gavin Barwell lost his seat .

Why so happy, he was the nearest thing to an anti landlord HPC supporting housing minister you are likely to find in government.

[Bear Goggles]

2 hours ago, Dorkins said:

Good for HPC I think. Politicians will start being scared of the young, might make them a bit more reluctant to repeatedly bash the pro-HPI policy button.

This. 

And the fact that the tabloids, with their rabidly pro-rentier narrative, really do now have a declining influence.

[copydude]

Honey, I Just Shrunk The Quids

Here in sunny Warsaw, my rent keeps going up. That's because the pound has been falling ever since Ms May called the 'unnecessary' election. This has now culminated in the pound falling off a cliff.

I understand (as of today) she has no intention of resigning. But it seems that the European view is that she has severely diminished credibility.

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

27 minutes ago, thisisthisitmaybe said:

I'd like to see that chart instead just for London and the South East. There has been no crash here, just a continuation of existing HPI. But as I've said before I think that is now changing.

Are they not teaching arithmetic in schools these days ?

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

40 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Why so happy, he was the nearest thing to an anti landlord HPC supporting housing minister you are likely to find in government.

That is the point I was also making.

 

[adarmo]

On 2017-6-1 at 4:40 PM, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I've gone for hung parliament.

Given Scotland will vote SNP I dont see how Labour can win it but given the fact the BrExit was 52/48 then I'd say we'll see a 50/50 split in the votes which could see Torys mess it right up ( deliberately or otherwise )

 

Good work, and calling it that early too!

[reddog]

So is this peak Corbyn?

 

Or will he come up with even more extreme policies ready to win the next election?

[kzb]

Shocked to hear that 20-25% of votes are POSTAL.

When is the earliest you can vote by post?

Many of these voters will have voted before the terrorist attacks, and indeed before the main party manifestos were actually published.

How is this allowed?

[thecrashingisles]

56 minutes ago, hotairmail said:

Well, one thing is that it has become clearer now that both Scotland and Northern Ireland want to remain part of the Union.

After the Brexit ref. there were many claiming that the vote showed a clamour for independence and that Brexit itself meant the union falling apart. That has been put firmly to bed.

Wishful thinking.  Sinn Fein made big gains and the SNP won a clear majority in Scotland.  We can chose the union or Brexit, but pushing on with Brexit will break the union.

[NuBrit]

Just now, thecrashingisles said:

Wishful thinking.  Sinn Fein made big gains and the SNP won a clear majority in Scotland.  We can chose the union or Brexit, but pushing on with Brexit will break the union.

There is no chance of Northern Ireland leaving, at least not anytime soon. Sinn Fein's vote only grew because they took the other nationalist party's vote away. The combined Irish nationalist vote is at a high water mark in the low 40's and has been bobbing around this area for years now. Maybe in 20 year time the demographic will change enough for Irish nationalists to have enough votes to leave the UK. Brexit is not a factor in whether you vote nationalist or unionist here.

Scotland is in a very similar situation. A nationalist vote that is in the low/mid 40's range, and hasn't gone anywhere in quite some time, and if anything, in this election maybe declined a little. 

[kzb]

I think this is a good result. 

It means the Tories can't bring in their dementia tax, stop the winter fuel allowance or the triple lock. 

Further NHS privatisation will be blocked.  Increases in tuition fees will be blocked.

On the other hand Labour's spending plans will not happen on the scale feared.

What's not to like?

[cool_hand]

What are we all here for? A House Price Crash. This has got to put a dent in the market, how big, that is the question?

[Bruce Banner]

Unbelievable speech by May!

[Venger]

There was always something disturbing about all of May's repeated "Strong and Stable Leadership" framing.

On that point it should be your lieutenants championing (and explaining) your leadership qualities, and not yourself, imo - else some arrogance, and in the subconscious as not the truth of things.

 

Radio in car just had some Conservative mind, not pleased with May, claim she was like a robot with all 'strong and stable leadership'.   (Although was it Ed Milliband on the radio who joked the other week that she sounds "Weak And Wobbly" - hehe.)

That he never wants to hear the phrase again, and acknowledged that Corbyn could naturally string some words together to create a clear picture, and connect a lot with people.

Also wasn't impressed with the questionably timed dinner with Junker (which was always going to lead to some fallout... 'different galaxy') ... followed by May's Strong and Stable Leadership, and projecting risks/dangers that next leader will have to deal with.... who obviously needs to be Strong & Stable.  

Quote

“But it also shows that actually at times these negotiations are going to be tough. And in order to get the best deal for Britain we need to ensure that we’ve got that strong and stable leadership going into those negotiations.”  1 May 2017  https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/01/jean-claude-juncker-to-theresa-may-on-brexit-im-10-times-more-sceptical-than-i-was-before

Bloody difficult woman needs to do some politics now, to keep position, and perhaps her own future not so strong-and-stable as leader of conservatives.  (Unravel / take heads).

[NuBrit]

2 minutes ago, cool_hand said:

What are we all here for? A House Price Crash. This has got to put a dent in the market, how big, that is the question?

I thought the outcome is actually quite bullish for house prices.

May has a majority (albeit in a coalition), she will now be under pressure to abandon deficit targets, which should mean more borrowing, more spending, more trashing the pound, and ultimately more house price inflation. 

[NuBrit]

Labour win Kensington.

[crashmonitor]

35 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

Wishful thinking.  Sinn Fein made big gains and the SNP won a clear majority in Scotland.  We can chose the union or Brexit, but pushing on with Brexit will break the union.

I was a Leaver but based on these results I think an exit from the single Market is probably out of the question. There were a lot of poor folk in places like Mansfield, North East Derbyshire and Skegness that voted Tory for the first time, but will now be very disappointed.

In theses areas house prices were not an issue, they are at about the same level as 2004,  just pocket money prices for the rich Socialists living down south. Most of them just didn't want to live in a country with a hundred million people by the middle of the century, race and creed were irrelevant.

Meanwhile, I believe the rotation that was underway into Equities  and out of houses will come to a halt and houses may be seen as the safe bet. The law of unintended consequences. And the props of unlimited immigration are back on the agenda.

In spite of my views I think May trying to trudge on with the DUPs would be a disaster. Maybe game over on any sort of Brexit. I actually think a progressive Alliance would be more stable than what May is trying for. She's just a lame duck joke with no authority.

 

Edited June 9, 2017 by crashmonitor

[“Nasty Piece of work”]

Dead woman, dead party, dead government.

[NuBrit]

7 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

 

In spite of my views I think May trying to trudge on with the DUPs would be a disaster. Maybe game over on any sort of Brexit. I actually think a progressive Alliance would be more stable than what May is trying for.

 

I think the Conservative party will be able to trudge on just fine. The DUP on the other hand, minority coallition partners historically get smashed to bits the next time they go to the polls. Considering the high water mark the DUP are at, I think it's likely they will take a kicking next time