General Election Prediction Poll

[TheCountOfNowhere]

I've gone for hung parliament.

Given Scotland will vote SNP I dont see how Labour can win it but given the fact the BrExit was 52/48 then I'd say we'll see a 50/50 split in the votes which could see Torys mess it right up ( deliberately or otherwise )

 

Edited June 1, 2017 by TheCountOfNowhere

[jiltedjen]

Lots of 'shy tory' voters who won't admit to the polling that they are going to vote Tory, will vote Tory. Only way for labour to win is for labour to alleady be well ahead in the polls at this stage. 

The only thing that maybe changes it from a 'sure fire' Tory win to only a 'very probable' win is the removal of pensioner bribes, which labour have kept intact. 

Im in the southwest where the lib dems have a death grip, I suspect absolute worse case for the tories is a libcon gov again. this is a key area.

im voting labour as although I don't think they are in with a chance, I would like the left to be left, not another Tory light BTL brigade that they have been for the previous 10 years.

around the world we are heading to the right, I don't think Blighty will change that trend sadly

[maverick73]

12 minutes ago, fru-gal said:

Tory win. A lot of people forget that the older generation isn't as vocal online as the younger generation and obviously the "shy" Tory effect. I think a lot of the scare stories are also an attempt to scare Tory voters into going out and voting and not being complacent.

Last year every survey was biased to remain.... have they updated the way the analyse data from their sample pools 

[crashmonitor]

At the end of the day unless you are going to receive a free University education, feel your benefits will be more secure etc. then you will probably be amongst the majority who will receive no financial benefit from Labour's big spend. The average working person is secretly a Tory outside the public sector.

Socialist Governments have their projects to reward the few ( may be a tenth of the population ) but the majority end up suffering once the country is bust down the line.

My hunch is still for the Tories.

 

Edited June 1, 2017 by crashmonitor

[anonlymouse]

1 hour ago, maverick73 said:

Last year every survey was biased to remain.... have they updated the way the analyse data from their sample pools 

The only model that predicted leave was the same one which YouGov are using to predict a hung parliment. So possibly in for quite an upset come Friday 9th June.

[frederico]

If only Diane Abbot was not there labour would walk it.... Maybe.

Can't really see Corbyn as PM 

[Bruce Banner]

2 hours ago, fru-gal said:

Tory win. A lot of people forget that the older generation isn't as vocal online as the younger generation and obviously the "shy" Tory effect. I think a lot of the scare stories are also an attempt to scare Tory voters into going out and voting and not being complacent.

I am and if I were in the country I'd be voting Labour (in the hope of getting a hung parliament) for the first time in my life.

[zugzwang]

13 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

At the end of the day unless you are going to receive a free University education, feel your benefits will be more secure etc. then you will probably be amongst the majority who will receive no financial benefit from Labour's big spend. The average working person is secretly a Tory outside the public sector.

Socialist Governments have their projects to reward the few ( may be a tenth of the population ) but the majority end up suffering once the country is bust down the line.

My hunch is still for the Tories.

 

It's capitalism that's bust. Has been since 2008. The idea of the economy as a quasi-static equilibrium optimally maintained by the free market. Until this is more broadly understood, and frankly it's barely grasped here on HPC where its shortcomings have been comprehensively explored, things will never get better.

[Stu1]

4 extra bank holidays

[GreenDevil]

Any vote is a wasted vote, we are living in a communist state controlled by the central bankers, what ever happens dont expect any change. Perhaps a labour win will bring on the crash sooner? 

[maverick73]

1 hour ago, anonlymouse said:

The only model that predicted leave was the same one which YouGov are using to predict a hung parliment. So possibly in for quite an upset come Friday 9th June.

I would welcome a hung parliament. That would cause anarchy... increasing risk, increasing cost of borrowing, unless the unleash further credit into the system 

[Sancho Panza]

1 hour ago, anonlymouse said:

The only model that predicted leave was the same one which YouGov are using to predict a hung parliment. So possibly in for quite an upset come Friday 9th June.

Not quite.virtually all the online polls called it for Leave,phone polls called it for Remain

Political Betting 6/12/16

'The polls did NOT get BREXIT wrong: Only 41% had REMAIN leads. 59% didn’t

Is it too much to expect Britain’s PR people to check simple facts?

One of the enduring myths from June 23rd was that the polls got it wrong. Some did but most in the official campaign period didn’t as shown in the chart.

That esteemed body that allegedly speaks for PR people, the Public Relations and Communications Association (PRCA), has announced it is holding an inquiry into polling specifically referencing GE2015 and the June 23rd referendum. Certainly the former was a big polling fail and there has been a major inquiry into what went wrong and many pollsters have made changes. Quite what PR men can add to the serious examination that has taken place is hard to say.

But the suggestion that keeps on getting repeated is that the polls got BREXIT wrong. This is rubbish as I keep on repeating. There were more LEAVE lead polls carried out during the official campaign period than REMAIN ones. The figures were 14 REMAIN leads, 17 LEAVE leads and 3 polls had it tied.

It is certainly true that two or three of the final polls were off the mark but the overall picture was reasonably good.

A big factor was postal voting which started more than three weeks beforehand and represented maybe a fifth of all votes. The greater the time gap between the act of voting and being polled is bound to increase errors.

Mike Smithson'

 

Edited June 1, 2017 by Sancho Panza

[Tempus]

I reckon Tory win, majority of about 50. 

Our only hope of a crash is for Brexit to go badly. Given what we've seen of May, there's every chance it will go very badly. 

[MrMonkey]

4 hours ago, crashmonitor said:

At the end of the day unless you are going to receive a free University education, feel your benefits will be more secure etc. then you will probably be amongst the majority who will receive no financial benefit from Labour's big spend.

Maybe not a direct financial benefit.

But if you get sick and need a doctor, then you want the doctor who was the smartest kid in his class. Not the one wealthy enough to study a medicine degree. That is when the rest of society benefits from free university education.

[MT7726]

I predict a hung parliament and coalition government. 

The lib Dems or Greens (parties opposing Brexit) will become king makers to either Cons or Labour. 

Essentially, the minority party in coalition government will become the whipping boys of any failed Brexit strategy from the main parties, especially hard Brexit; Anything, and everything, regarding Brexit will be blamed on them. It is really what both the main parties / elite want anyway; Brexit in name, but everything will remain the same.

[Broken biscuit]

Easy Tory win increasing their majority to about 70.

 

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

I also expect a hung Parliament, Conservatives short by about 15 seats leaving enough room for a temporary Corbyn administration cobbled together with the SNP, Lib Dems, Greens, Plaid and any other vaguely left special interests.

I also predict May's last act of defiance will be to withdraw the article 50 notification.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

10 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

I am and if I were in the country I'd be voting Labour (in the hope of getting a hung parliament) for the first time in my life.

Where were you in 2010 and 1976 ?

[copydude]

4 hours ago, Broken biscuit said:

Easy Tory win increasing their majority to about 70.

 

Except that all the polls at the moment aren't saying that.

The race is tightening, if nothing else. Only YouGov predicting a hung parliament.

From a massive 150+ landslide a couple of weeks ago, it's a very interesting development. Possible reasons: May looking flaky on closer inspection, dementia tax faux pas, voters now thinking about (the parlous) economy rather than Brexit, UKIPpers not really moving en bloc to the blue party as assumed . . .

I note that this is increasingly being touted as an unnecessary election. If it produces nothing, one wonders whether Ms. May would be invited to resign.

 

 

 

 

[casual_squash]

I think the polls are skewed this time but for different reasons. 

Corbyn will have tapped into the long term, labour leaning disenfranchised vote, in essence part of the electorate that got Blair in in 97 and also recently part of the electorate that turned up for the leave vote last year.  He has also obviously galvanised the core motivated labour vote too along with it.  

The big question though is will this translate into the marginals, where it really matters. The answer I suspect is going to be a big fat no.

The reason being is the Corbyn fear factor will also motivate the core Tory support , plus the core UKIP vote, plus a significant chunk of the leave vote. Plus all in all the economy isn't bad enough to warrant the Tories kicked out...yet. 

I don't think May will get the 100+ majority first talked about but I do suspect she will come out with a sizable majority than she has now.  

 

 

 

 

Edited June 2, 2017 by casual_squash

[Broken biscuit]

28 minutes ago, copydude said:

Except that all the polls at the moment aren't saying that.

The race is tightening, if nothing else. Only YouGov predicting a hung parliament.

From a massive 150+ landslide a couple of weeks ago, it's a very interesting development. Possible reasons: May looking flaky on closer inspection, dementia tax faux pas, voters now thinking about (the parlous) economy rather than Brexit, UKIPpers not really moving en bloc to the blue party as assumed . . .

I note that this is increasingly being touted as an unnecessary election. If it produces nothing, one wonders whether Ms. May would be invited to resign.

The average of the polls (as of yesterday) had the Conservatives on 43.5% and Labour on 36%. That would equate to a Conservative majority (unless the distribution of votes was massively distorted across the country in a way that had never been seen before). Bearing in mind that polls always understate the Conservative vote share I would confidently predict a conservative majority greater than their current majority (and the bookies agree with me).

Also consider this point; It's not the tories share that falling significantly - it's labour that is improving. Now I would hazard a guess that pollsters are picking up a lot of younger people in their samples than will actually vote. In other words, I believe the Labour share is being overstated.

I therefore stand by my prediction of a Tory majority of around 70.

[Broken biscuit]

Because I can't edit my previous post:

The average of the polls (as of yesterday) had the Conservatives on 43.5% and Labour on 36%. That would equate to a Conservative majority (unless the distribution of votes was massively distorted across the country in a way that had never been seen before). Bearing in mind that polls always understate the Conservative vote share I would confidently predict a conservative majority greater than their current majority (and the bookies agree with me).

Also consider this point; It's not the tories share that falling significantly - it's labour that is improving. Now I would hazard a guess that pollsters are picking up a lot more younger people in their samples than will actually vote. In other words, I believe the Labour share is being overstated.

I therefore stand by my prediction of a Tory majority of around 70.

[winkie]

Tory May win....Brexit May not.

[PeanutButter]

Unfortunately, Tory win. Hoping Lab will grab enough to gum the gears though. 

[copydude]

Certainly, many factors in play and all kinds of tactical voting going on:

http://bestforbritain.org/vote-smart

I think I'll go for only a small majority . . . because I tend to think May's personal performance has been very poor.