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Optobear

Is May cleverly sabotaging Brexit?

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Are we all misjudging Theresa's political skills?

Here is a scenario:

Let's imagine that she is in favour of remain. She achieves leadership of the Tory party by pretending to have changed her spots, however, it is all a clever ruse. She then wins over lots of support by championing Brexit, but then pulls an amazing stunt by calling for an election. Instead of the ostensible reason for the election, i.e. having an increased majority, she actually intends to totally **** up the whole process, and end up in coalition? To this end, she writes the most unpopular manifesto, comes up with a way of taking the housing wealth from her core voters, aims to introduce grammar schools, and even steals food from school children.

Not content with a manifesto that is designed to wind up her supporters, she then makes a total hash of public appearances, and then refuses, in a cowardly way, to debate with the other party leaders.

This way she enters a Lib-Dem coalition, and Brexit is averted, and better still it isn't even her fault. It isn't as if there is any precedent for a Tory leader calling for a public vote and then finding they don't get the result they 'wanted'. How could she have known?

Well played Mrs May.

----

Someone remind me about Occam's razor... is it that the simplest explanation, that fits all the available facts, is probably correct?

Optobear

 

 

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There's got to be some explanation for her apparent determination to throw the election.

The other possibility might be playing the long game: they suspect a massive economic crash is coming and want to be out of power when it does so they can claim it was Labour wot done it, and then be in power for at least a generation thereafter.

Unless she really is that incompetent?

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4 minutes ago, LC1 said:

There's got to be some explanation for her apparent determination to throw the election.

The other possibility might be playing the long game: they suspect a massive economic crash is coming and want to be out of power when it does so they can claim it was Labour wot done it, and then be in power for at least a generation thereafter.

Unless she really is that incompetent?

The country always looks like it's about to fall apart and you'd be mad to want to run it, probably because it is and is always going downhill. That never puts off people who want power.

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6 minutes ago, LC1 said:

There's got to be some explanation for her apparent determination to throw the election.

The other possibility might be playing the long game: they suspect a massive economic crash is coming and want to be out of power when it does so they can claim it was Labour wot done it, and then be in power for at least a generation thereafter.

Unless she really is that incompetent?

This was my thought the moment she called the election.  There is so much weakness in the economy and an almost complete denial of this by the Tories. I can't believe they are so stupid that they believe their own lies so the only thing that made any sense to me is that they are trying to dodge the next collapse.

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I always thought they'd use delaying tactics, transitional arrangements etc. to avoid a full Brexit and then lose the election to a Lib\Lab coalition which would abort the process. Multi-nationals & Establishment happy, job done.

Of course bringing the election forward was a master stroke in achieving this. So yes Optobear, I think you may be onto something.

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17 minutes ago, anonlymouse said:

Hanlon's Razor - "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity"

Haha, you're probably right there :)

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18 minutes ago, anonlymouse said:

Hanlon's Razor - "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity"

+1

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No - she's really not that smart. Her entire career has been characterised by incompetence and U-turns.

There is one element of truth in the OP though  IMHO - she is aiming to be less beholden to the Hard Brexiteers in the party by having a more workable majority. HOpefully she won't get it.

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43 minutes ago, LC1 said:

There's got to be some explanation for her apparent determination to throw the election.

The other possibility might be playing the long game: they suspect a massive economic crash is coming and want to be out of power when it does so they can claim it was Labour wot done it, and then be in power for at least a generation thereafter.

Unless she really is that incompetent?

Yes, I think she is...

This is more than "trouble", though. It is extremely dangerous. If we are to believe the narrative coming out of No 10., then Mrs May is taking her advice from an extremely narrow base, selling her a mixed-up version of reality which is leading the nation to perdition. 

http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86490

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It's very odd, but I don't see a covert plot to scupper brexit.

before she called the election.

tory polls very strong

tory expenses election scandal looming

tory working majority small

prior tory manifesto limited future tax and spend.

 

so it was a good move at the time to go for a general election.

i do think she is most likely to still win, with a similar majority she currently has.

impact on brexit will be tiny.

but brexit is running out of time and this election is a waste of time.

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14 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

but brexit is running out of time and this election is a waste of time.

Funny how May repeatedly said that Brexit is so important and demanding that the distraction of a Scottish Independence Referendum must be avoided at all costs, yet we can spare the time for a General Election.

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1 hour ago, anonlymouse said:

Hanlon's Razor - "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity"

Correct. It's more a case that May has been found out, as she's stepped into the spotlight so we can clearly see her flaws.

She's rubbish. A real political lightweight. 

I suspect she'll make a monumental mess of Brexit and we'll crash out with no deal.

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1 hour ago, anonlymouse said:

Hanlon's Razor - "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity"

Quite. It's always tempting to think that politicians know what they're doing, but history is against it.

I think this is probably a more accurate portrayal of the average politician's approach to elections you might be better off losing: The Marshmallow Test

May called this election primarily because she thought it was a shoe-in for an increased majority, and she didn't want to repeat Brown's mistake. Corbyn had been written off by pretty much everyone - the Guardian, and Freedman in particular, can go eff themselves - so I don't think it occurred to them that May's 'personality' might be a problem.

Whatever the outcome, Corbyn has (probably) won. The only bad result for him would be an increased Tory majority and/or a loss of Labour seats, and that's looking increasingly unlikely. In order of preference:

  1. Labour win
  2. Hung parliament
  3. Reduced Tory majority, Labour gains
  4. Reduced Tory majority, Labour unchanged
  5. No change
  6. Increased Tory majority

The Tories has assumed 6, but 3 or 2 are looking more and more likely. The Blairites will be holed below the water, and neoliberalism is a dead duck bobbing alongside.

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1 hour ago, Optobear said:

Are we all misjudging Theresa's political skills?

 

 

I think being in control of the negotiating, the TV, the MSM is the key to them sabotaging it.

 

 

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40 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I think being in control of the negotiating, the TV, the MSM is the key to them sabotaging it.

I have noticed a significant (imo) shift in emphasis within the msm, giving JC more positive coverage and TM more negative.

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1 hour ago, Dave Beans said:

Unless she really is that incompetent?

Yes, I think she is...

+1

Her career has been one of serial failure.

Her only real ability is the ability to always divert the blame for her failures onto someone else. She is now about to find out that's a lot more difficult when you have the number one job.

Add in her awkward personality and wooden presentation and you have a female less intelligent version of Gordon Brown.   

 

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9 minutes ago, LC1 said:

I have noticed a significant (imo) shift in emphasis within the msm, giving JC more positive coverage and TM more negative.

I thought Jezza played a blinder yesterday, saying he was not going to take part and then changing his mind, apparently at the last minute.  Completely wrong-footed the Tories and made TM look pathetic.  Good plan.  It was obvious this was planned some time ago because he was well rehearsed.

Coupled to this, the audience was clearly chosen to be anti-Tory and anti-UKIP.  Jezza put in a storming performance encouraged by wild applause.  Amber Rudd was dull and got barely a few desultory claps.  Paul Nuttall floundered at the beginning of each reply, his inexperience at these events showed through.  Not helped by the boos and interruptions at every turn.

Anyhow the perception will be that Jeremy "won" this event, almost surely.

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I've virtually given up watching the news the Labour soundbites of nurses using foodbanks ( the 80% of the population that earn less than nurses presumably are not worthy) the Nhs falling apart and spend spend spend seems to be winning the day. 

Seeing the adulation for Comrade Corbyn by the Cambridge students yesterday after the debate and the hand picked audience of Tory hecklers at the debate and you just know Labour are in the driving seat.

God knows what the next polls will come out with.

 

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1 minute ago, kzb said:

I thought Jezza played a blinder yesterday, saying he was not going to take part and then changing his mind, apparently at the last minute.  Completely wrong-footed the Tories and made TM look pathetic.  Good plan.  It was obvious this was planned some time ago because he was well rehearsed.

Coupled to this, the audience was clearly chosen to be anti-Tory and anti-UKIP.  Jezza put in a storming performance encouraged by wild applause.  Amber Rudd was dull and got barely a few desultory claps.  Paul Nuttall floundered at the beginning of each reply, his inexperience at these events showed through.  Not helped by the boos and interruptions at every turn.

Anyhow the perception will be that Jeremy "won" this event, almost surely.

The way that Nuttal has this weird staccato method at the end of each point that he makes, drives      me       up     the      wall..

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3 minutes ago, kzb said:

I thought Jezza played a blinder yesterday, saying he was not going to take part and then changing his mind, apparently at the last minute.  Completely wrong-footed the Tories and made TM look pathetic.  Good plan.  It was obvious this was planned some time ago because he was well rehearsed.

Coupled to this, the audience was clearly chosen to be anti-Tory and anti-UKIP.  Jezza put in a storming performance encouraged by wild applause.  Amber Rudd was dull and got barely a few desultory claps.  Paul Nuttall floundered at the beginning of each reply, his inexperience at these events showed through.  Not helped by the boos and interruptions at every turn.

Anyhow the perception will be that Jeremy "won" this event, almost surely.

Could backfire the Brits are for fair play. The audience were there for lynching Rudd and Nuttall. Shame on the polling organisation that chose this supposedly representative audience. 

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10 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

I've virtually given up watching the news the Labour soundbites of nurses using foodbanks ( the 80% of the population that earn less than nurses presumably are not worthy) the Nhs falling apart and spend spend spend seems to be winning the day. 

Seeing the adulation for Comrade Corbyn by the Cambridge students yesterday after the debate and the hand picked audience of Tory hecklers at the debate and you just know Labour are in the driving seat.

God knows what the next polls will come out with.

A few nutty students can't win a general election. And as for the what the next polls say - who cares. The election will be decided by a national poll on June 8th - not by some unscientific poll published in the national press tomorrow.

People on here really need to get a grip. What is fed into your heads by the media is not representative of what the country as a whole is thinking.

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3 hours ago, LC1 said:

There's got to be some explanation for her apparent determination to throw the election.

The other possibility might be playing the long game: they suspect a massive economic crash is coming and want to be out of power when it does so they can claim it was Labour wot done it, and then be in power for at least a generation thereafter.

Unless she really is that incompetent?

I've never seen any evidence ever that any politician is willing to make such a short-term-sacrifice-for-long-term-gain play, they are just all power obsessed and wouldnt knowingly give up power for 5 minutes if they didnt absolutely have to.

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I would have been sceptical of deliberate undermining themselves to lose the election - however, I am completely u-turned by the fact that they chose probably the worst time ever to announce that they would legalise fox hunting if they win. Who is going to vote for someone who not only promises that, but puts the chocolate cherry on top by saying that they are personally in favour of fox hunting? A few die-hard squirey toby jug and side-whiskers types will be ecstatic but nearly everyone else will go ewwww no thanks. 

What next, secretly printing ballot papers with a waxy bit so you can't put a cross against Conservative?

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