Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 78
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted Images

2 hours ago, Digsby said:

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/2017/May_2017.pdf

I'm glad they've acknowledged that house price trends do not change during election periods, something we proved here last time around amid claims that the market weakness in early 2015 was because of the election. 

Having said that, I think this time around, a shock Labour win will trigger the BTL sell-off we've been waiting for.

 

Can't see Labour winning under any circumstances but I could see them doing better than expected with the lib-dems recovering a little and maybe being in a position to form a coalition along with the SNP.

 

I guess it all depends on voting patterns - as we've seen in the last election, the current FPTP system means that you can have a lot of support but end up with few seats (UKIP) or given a different concentration of your support, many seats (SNP) - all depending on how your support is spread out through the various constituencies.

And ultimately, any party which can claim an overall majority of seats - even by just 1 MP -  has 100% of the power.  When was the last time we had a single party government which won over 50% of the total votes cast?  And have we ever had a government that could command the support of over 50% of the entire electorate?

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, mat109 said:

Why is the average price continuing to rise?

Seasonal adjusting - prices normally rise during Spring and fall back in the latter part of the year when demand is usually weaker. To eliminate this distortion and smooth out the data, the sold price indices (Halifax, Nationwide and Land Reg) seasonally adjust their figures. It's usually within 1.5%. Thus, if a rise in spring is less than the usual 1.5%, it's possible that a negative headline figure will be generated, even though actual prices have in fact risen. Ditto in the autumn / winter - when people aren't timing house purchases around the school year. A small fall in actual prices can translate into a rise in the headline figure. Usually these seasonal tweaks balance out over the year.

Worth bearing in mind that revisions to the previous month's headline figure take place too - and are far more questionable than the practice of seasonal adjusting. There are many examples, as noted on this site, of the previous monthly headline figure being revised from +0.1% to -0.1% for example - carefully avoiding media coverage of falling prices.

Rightmove's asking price index (of initial asking prices only!) is not seasonally adjusted, so is almost guaranteed to rise in line with Spring Bounce and fall later in the year.

Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Worth bearing in mind that revisions to the previous month's headline figure take place too - and are far more questionable than the practice of seasonal adjusting. There are many examples, as noted on this site, of the previous monthly headline figure being revised from +0.1% to -0.1% for example - carefully avoiding media coverage of falling prices.

I've had a quick browse through all the reports release so far this year and the only previous monthly figure they have revised a January, which was revised down from 0.2 to 0.1. Since then all figures have remained unaltered the following month.

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, anonlymouse said:

I've had a quick browse through all the reports release so far this year and the only previous monthly figure they have revised a January, which was revised down from 0.2 to 0.1. Since then all figures have remained unaltered the following month.

Halifax Feb 2017 headline of +0.1% was revised down to 0.0% in the next month's release.

Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Worth bearing in mind that revisions to the previous month's headline figure take place too - and are far more questionable than the practice of seasonal adjusting. There are many examples, as noted on this site, of the previous monthly headline figure being revised from +0.1% to -0.1% for example - carefully avoiding media coverage of falling prices.

 

Ah yes, revising the figures of last month just before the next ones come out.  The favourite wheeze of the manipulators.

Overstate the figures when they come out, making them look better than reality at a time when people are taking notice of them.

Then, when the spotlight is off them, quietly revise them downward just in time to make the next month's figures (which you will also overstate of course) look less bad than otherwise in comparison.

Two bites of the cherry at gaming each set of figures .. the headline and the delta with the previous set.  Rinse and repeat, no-one in the mainstream financial press is ever going to call you on it.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Has anyone made a graph to show how these adjustments affect the headline rate? eg a graph showing the published alongside one with the revision-effect removed? It would be interesting to see.

Doesn't this manipulation come out in the wash for year on year rates anyway?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Downbeat. Nationwide know the answer will be to cut their mortgage rates and continue to put pressure on their net interest margin. They are boxed in because their business is focused on the housing market. They are keen on maintaining a branch presence presumably with more automation. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Ash4781 said:

Downbeat. Nationwide know the answer will be to cut their mortgage rates and continue to put pressure on their net interest margin. They are boxed in because their business is focused on the housing market. They are keen on maintaining a branch presence presumably with more automation. 

They will collapse then.

The NR went bust lendiong 120% of 2007 prices.

NW are lending at 130% of 2007 prices.

Wages haven't change.

Doesnt take a genius to work out they could be in trouble.  Theire saving grace is the HTB guarantee and the fact they sneaked in a resolution to take money ( like a bank ) from the open monmey markets ).

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

First three straight months of falls since at least 2010?

Since 2009 in the midst of the collapse.

Unfortunately those falls are actually higher prices which might just keep going up :lol;

It's all very confusing but one thing is for certainly.

Something's happening.

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

This is fooking beautiful.

nationwide.png?source=next&fit=scale-dow

I count 15 or 16 months in a row where prices went up ( massively ) ...starting oddly enough with 3 little rises and 1 drop.

We need 5 years of sustained drops now.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Up the spout said:

No panic yet, wait until a close GE Brexit negotiations kick in and jobless numbers start rising and confidence plummets. Got my popcorn at the ready...

... unfortunately the twit Carney has got his printing machine at the ready also...

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, nome said:

... unfortunately the twit Carney has got his printing machine at the ready also...

The printers were wheeled out months ago, the IRs forced down.

How does that fit in with these falls ?

The BTL rug has been puilled, as has the HTB scam.  If the "investors" have made off with their loot there really is nothing to stop a collapse.

Some MMR restrained FTBs are not going to prop up this mess at those prices

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.