“Nasty Piece of work” Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 How are the monthly baby step FALLS reported in China? Does the Public realise they buying a polished turd? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Dames Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 The site im currently on dropped there initial prices recently. Tbh tho they were kite flying for the area really. D Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sour Mash Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 2 hours ago, Digsby said: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/2017/May_2017.pdf I'm glad they've acknowledged that house price trends do not change during election periods, something we proved here last time around amid claims that the market weakness in early 2015 was because of the election. Having said that, I think this time around, a shock Labour win will trigger the BTL sell-off we've been waiting for. Can't see Labour winning under any circumstances but I could see them doing better than expected with the lib-dems recovering a little and maybe being in a position to form a coalition along with the SNP. I guess it all depends on voting patterns - as we've seen in the last election, the current FPTP system means that you can have a lot of support but end up with few seats (UKIP) or given a different concentration of your support, many seats (SNP) - all depending on how your support is spread out through the various constituencies. And ultimately, any party which can claim an overall majority of seats - even by just 1 MP - has 100% of the power. When was the last time we had a single party government which won over 50% of the total votes cast? And have we ever had a government that could command the support of over 50% of the entire electorate? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
rantnrave Posted June 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 11 minutes ago, mat109 said: Why is the average price continuing to rise? Seasonal adjusting - prices normally rise during Spring and fall back in the latter part of the year when demand is usually weaker. To eliminate this distortion and smooth out the data, the sold price indices (Halifax, Nationwide and Land Reg) seasonally adjust their figures. It's usually within 1.5%. Thus, if a rise in spring is less than the usual 1.5%, it's possible that a negative headline figure will be generated, even though actual prices have in fact risen. Ditto in the autumn / winter - when people aren't timing house purchases around the school year. A small fall in actual prices can translate into a rise in the headline figure. Usually these seasonal tweaks balance out over the year. Worth bearing in mind that revisions to the previous month's headline figure take place too - and are far more questionable than the practice of seasonal adjusting. There are many examples, as noted on this site, of the previous monthly headline figure being revised from +0.1% to -0.1% for example - carefully avoiding media coverage of falling prices. Rightmove's asking price index (of initial asking prices only!) is not seasonally adjusted, so is almost guaranteed to rise in line with Spring Bounce and fall later in the year. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TheCountOfNowhere Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 Considering this is the spring bounce, the bubble is f**ked Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TheCountOfNowhere Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 39 minutes ago, mat109 said: Why is the average price continuing to rise? Yeah, that is slightly worrying, seasonal adjustment or not. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
anonlymouse Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 23 minutes ago, rantnrave said: Worth bearing in mind that revisions to the previous month's headline figure take place too - and are far more questionable than the practice of seasonal adjusting. There are many examples, as noted on this site, of the previous monthly headline figure being revised from +0.1% to -0.1% for example - carefully avoiding media coverage of falling prices. I've had a quick browse through all the reports release so far this year and the only previous monthly figure they have revised a January, which was revised down from 0.2 to 0.1. Since then all figures have remained unaltered the following month. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
rantnrave Posted June 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, anonlymouse said: I've had a quick browse through all the reports release so far this year and the only previous monthly figure they have revised a January, which was revised down from 0.2 to 0.1. Since then all figures have remained unaltered the following month. Halifax Feb 2017 headline of +0.1% was revised down to 0.0% in the next month's release. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Blod Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 This is even appearing on the front page of BBC News site, albeit under tenth most read. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
GrizzlyDave Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 This is fooking beautiful. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sour Mash Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 51 minutes ago, rantnrave said: Worth bearing in mind that revisions to the previous month's headline figure take place too - and are far more questionable than the practice of seasonal adjusting. There are many examples, as noted on this site, of the previous monthly headline figure being revised from +0.1% to -0.1% for example - carefully avoiding media coverage of falling prices. Ah yes, revising the figures of last month just before the next ones come out. The favourite wheeze of the manipulators. Overstate the figures when they come out, making them look better than reality at a time when people are taking notice of them. Then, when the spotlight is off them, quietly revise them downward just in time to make the next month's figures (which you will also overstate of course) look less bad than otherwise in comparison. Two bites of the cherry at gaming each set of figures .. the headline and the delta with the previous set. Rinse and repeat, no-one in the mainstream financial press is ever going to call you on it. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
curious1 Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 Has anyone made a graph to show how these adjustments affect the headline rate? eg a graph showing the published alongside one with the revision-effect removed? It would be interesting to see. Doesn't this manipulation come out in the wash for year on year rates anyway? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
highcontrast Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 50 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: Considering this is the spring bounce, the bubble is f**ked Best.Post.Ever. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Oliver Sutton Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 (edited) Edited June 1, 2017 by Oliver Sutton Quote Link to post Share on other sites
DrMartinSanchez Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 1 hour ago, Blod said: This is even appearing on the front page of BBC News site, albeit under tenth most read. This article is currently on their home page near the top: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40117132 The article has comments enabled too. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ash4781 Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 Downbeat. Nationwide know the answer will be to cut their mortgage rates and continue to put pressure on their net interest margin. They are boxed in because their business is focused on the housing market. They are keen on maintaining a branch presence presumably with more automation. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TheCountOfNowhere Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 2 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said: This is fooking beautiful. Still looks pretty grotesque to me. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TheCountOfNowhere Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, Ash4781 said: Downbeat. Nationwide know the answer will be to cut their mortgage rates and continue to put pressure on their net interest margin. They are boxed in because their business is focused on the housing market. They are keen on maintaining a branch presence presumably with more automation. They will collapse then. The NR went bust lendiong 120% of 2007 prices. NW are lending at 130% of 2007 prices. Wages haven't change. Doesnt take a genius to work out they could be in trouble. Theire saving grace is the HTB guarantee and the fact they sneaked in a resolution to take money ( like a bank ) from the open monmey markets ). Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mathschoc Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 https://www.ftadviser.com/property/2017/06/01/property-fund-calls-for-new-build-stamp-duty-exemption/ Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Nabby81 Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, mathschoc said: https://www.ftadviser.com/property/2017/06/01/property-fund-calls-for-new-build-stamp-duty-exemption/ What a pile of shite that is ... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
rantnrave Posted June 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 3 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said: This is fooking beautiful. First three straight months of falls since at least 2010? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TheCountOfNowhere Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 26 minutes ago, rantnrave said: First three straight months of falls since at least 2010? Since 2009 in the midst of the collapse. Unfortunately those falls are actually higher prices which might just keep going up :lol; It's all very confusing but one thing is for certainly. Something's happening. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TheCountOfNowhere Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 (edited) 4 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said: This is fooking beautiful. I count 15 or 16 months in a row where prices went up ( massively ) ...starting oddly enough with 3 little rises and 1 drop. We need 5 years of sustained drops now. Edited June 1, 2017 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to post Share on other sites
nome Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 8 hours ago, Up the spout said: No panic yet, wait until a close GE Brexit negotiations kick in and jobless numbers start rising and confidence plummets. Got my popcorn at the ready... ... unfortunately the twit Carney has got his printing machine at the ready also... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TheCountOfNowhere Posted June 1, 2017 Report Share Posted June 1, 2017 (edited) 6 minutes ago, nome said: ... unfortunately the twit Carney has got his printing machine at the ready also... The printers were wheeled out months ago, the IRs forced down. How does that fit in with these falls ? The BTL rug has been puilled, as has the HTB scam. If the "investors" have made off with their loot there really is nothing to stop a collapse. Some MMR restrained FTBs are not going to prop up this mess at those prices Edited June 1, 2017 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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