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Nationwide May 2017 -0.2%

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Which will be adjusted down later too.

Just heard the NW chief economist. blah blah BS.

The real question for anyone working for NW is 'Do you think you and your coworkers will have a job in 2 years time? How will the clawback when NW fail affect you?'

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6 minutes ago, Up the spout said:

No panic yet, wait until a close GE Brexit negotiations kick in and jobless numbers start rising and confidence plummets. Got my popcorn at the ready...

Indeed, it appears the 'perfect storm' is brewing. All the props thrown under the housing market are about to act as tinder for the coming conflagration. 

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http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/2017/May_2017.pdf

I'm glad they've acknowledged that house price trends do not change during election periods, something we proved here last time around amid claims that the market weakness in early 2015 was because of the election. 

Having said that, I think this time around, a shock Labour win will trigger the BTL sell-off we've been waiting for.

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29 minutes ago, Blod said:

Front of BBC Business section http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business

Things are alright as there is still supply and demand to support the market claims Robert Gardiner, the Nationwide's chief economist, sorry but immigration is dropping.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/may/25/surge-in-poles-leaving-uk-since-brexit-vote-fuels-net-migration-drop

The days of mass immigration from Poland are gone forever. Back in 2004 unemployment rate was around 20%, now 7.5% and the minimum wage was around £150pm, now £400 with much lower costs of living (food on average 50% cheaper, cheap self build etc.), not to mention a recently introduced unconditional child benefit at £100/month starting from a second child. I expect more and more Poles coming back in coming years.

Edited by Paul77

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And the other big news is that the UK growth now matches Italy at the bottom of the G7: "The UK has fallen from being the fastest growing nation of any advanced economy to languishing at the bottom of the league table within three months after a particularly poor start to the year." https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sluggish-britain-falls-to-bottom-of-growth-table-26x7pjtfp

And as May has been found out and is clearly rubbish, I think we can expect a bumpy ride ahead. Possibly a train wreck. 

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It is a very weak spring bounce, which seasonally adjusted yields falling prices. If it keeps like this in 4-6 months we should see yoy drop. 

nw3m.gif.3ac2dec40cf53f9fd3ba0caf0c37dedf.gif

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As much as I want to, I can't get excited about this yet. There's a blue table in the report that shows that prices have still risen, despite the reported drop (seasonal adjustment?).

We need negative sentiment to kick in, but your average Joe who doesn't spend all his time on here will still be seeing increasing prices 'in the real world'.

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3 minutes ago, Tempus said:

And the other big news is that the UK growth now matches Italy at the bottom of the G7: "The UK has fallen from being the fastest growing nation of any advanced economy to languishing at the bottom of the league table within three months after a particularly poor start to the year." https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sluggish-britain-falls-to-bottom-of-growth-table-26x7pjtfp

And as May has been found out and is clearly rubbish, I think we can expect a bumpy ride ahead. Possibly a train wreck. 

I wonder when the UK will be ejected from the G7.... ;)

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"The building society said the slowdown could be linked to the recent squeeze on household budgets caused by the weakness of the pound." - BBC News Today

I thought weak pound = foreign investors? Unless the BBC put a positive spin on the weak pound when prices are rising and a negative one when prices are dropping?

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8 minutes ago, Bhoy said:

"The building society said the slowdown could be linked to the recent squeeze on household budgets caused by the weakness of the pound." - BBC News Today

I thought weak pound = foreign investors? Unless the BBC put a positive spin on the weak pound when prices are rising and a negative one when prices are dropping?

I think it did before the Brexit vote, but now we don't know how low the pound will go. Probably if it stays in the range it's been in (or rises) confidence will return, although maybe stopping foreigners with property here having easier access to the EU might prompt them to look in Europe instead? 

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1 hour ago, Tempus said:

And the other big news is that the UK growth now matches Italy at the bottom of the G7: "The UK has fallen from being the fastest growing nation of any advanced economy to languishing at the bottom of the league table within three months after a particularly poor start to the year." https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sluggish-britain-falls-to-bottom-of-growth-table-26x7pjtfp

And that's bad news because? Leave the damaging and reckless growth to others thank you very much. Big falls would be a problem but I've long stopped regarding anything other than roughly staying put as good news.

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2 hours ago, Up the spout said:

No panic yet, wait until a close GE Brexit negotiations kick in and jobless numbers start rising and confidence plummets. Got my popcorn at the ready...

not gonna happen

we've taken back control!

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Was it  was sunny or snowy or Wimbledon or the world cup or terrorism?

You know when a tsunami slowly grows and is draws all the water  off a beach leaving the fish stranded? You know at that time you should start running because all hell will break loose? We are in that swell now.

It is an absolute perfect storm especially when you add in the car debt and the personal other debt and brexit and so on.

 

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1 hour ago, ASBEAR said:

Great news!!

We may be able to see a negative annual change % in 2 to 3 months!

Screen Shot 2017-06-01 at 09.41.35.png

Why is the average price continuing to rise?

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1 hour ago, Bhoy said:

"The building society said the slowdown could be linked to the recent squeeze on household budgets caused by the weakness of the pound." - BBC News Today

I thought weak pound = foreign investors? Unless the BBC put a positive spin on the weak pound when prices are rising and a negative one when prices are dropping?

I think the idea that someone thinks that a packet of ginger nuts has gone up by 10p therefore I'm not going to go out and spend 200 grand on a house is a bit fantastical to be honest.

I'd be interested in seeing how excluding new build from the figures affects the price rises. In a lot of the areas I look at new build is quite expensive compared to existing stock, but affordable. I think this is probably a major engine for HPI and could be the only thing holding the numbers up.

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