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ASBEAR

Land Registry paid price data for April

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I imported the 2017 data set from the link to my local DB and ran some quick queries with no location filter.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/april-2017-price-paid-data

Downloaded the data set in "Yearly file: 2017" section in the following link.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/price-paid-data-downloads

The transaction for April look incredibly low, probably it's because the data for recent months are filled months after? I am not completely sure about it.

The general query looks like this:

select to_char(deed_date, 'YYYY-MM') as month, round(avg(price_paid),2) as avg_price, count(*) as transaction from sold_prices where property_type='D' group by 1 order by month;

I may be able to run the queries later today if you want the data for any specific location.

Detached 
  month  | avg_price | transaction
---------+-----------+-------------
 2017-01 | 401349.09 |       13592
 2017-02 | 392968.34 |       13556
 2017-03 | 394783.04 |       13760
 2017-04 | 417157.10 |        5232
(4 rows)

Semi Detached
  month  | avg_price | transaction
---------+-----------+-------------
 2017-01 | 246650.81 |       16190
 2017-02 | 241539.58 |       16398
 2017-03 | 244499.75 |       17763
 2017-04 | 248079.05 |        6101
(4 rows)

Terrassed
  month  | avg_price | transaction
---------+-----------+-------------
 2017-01 | 233406.91 |       17710
 2017-02 | 228484.84 |       17944
 2017-03 | 224308.96 |       19537
 2017-04 | 237340.87 |        6670
(4 rows)

Flat
  month  | avg_price | transaction
---------+-----------+-------------
 2017-01 | 293365.02 |       11592
 2017-02 | 292891.27 |       11558
 2017-03 | 273240.36 |       11100
 2017-04 | 308446.53 |        3254
(4 rows)

Office (?), property_type='O'
  month  | avg_price  | transaction
---------+------------+-------------
 2017-01 |  922368.07 |        4008
 2017-02 |  942865.89 |        3631
 2017-03 | 1028779.93 |        4147
 2017-04 |  873061.05 |        1289
(4 rows)

New build
  month  | avg_price | transaction
---------+-----------+-------------
 2017-01 | 336457.11 |        4098
 2017-02 | 374470.36 |        3450
 2017-03 | 322135.91 |        1884
 2017-04 | 231411.05 |         184
(4 rows)

Existing property
  month  | avg_price | transaction
---------+-----------+-------------
 2017-01 | 327165.26 |       58994
 2017-02 | 316995.11 |       59637
 2017-03 | 323642.21 |       64423
 2017-04 | 329382.03 |       22362
(4 rows)

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18 minutes ago, maverick73 said:

A downtrend happened before the last election too. I'm sure the normal media spinning machine will churn out something shortly... its cooling ;)

I remember looking into this in 2015, we normally see a rise in house prices in the run up to an election ( buying votes ? ) and the 2015 election was no different.

 

DBEx_lMXYAAsczh.jpg

 

The 2017 election has been a surprise event so it's difficult to say if it's had any real effect.

 

The manipulation of the market though for political gain is quite clear, to me at least.

if they think/know prices are going through the floor then they had to risk having an election now rather than in 2020 when the prices might be bottoming out.

 

 

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25 minutes ago, ASBEAR said:

The transaction for April look incredibly low, probably it's because the data for recent months are filled months after? I am not completely sure about it.

Yeah when the April HPI index is released expect to see the March figures revised - generally transactions can take up to three months if not more to be completely registered. Not a conspiracy but a reflection of the process of conveyancing and complexity of some transactions.

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1 hour ago, ASBEAR said:

The transaction for April look incredibly low, probably it's because the data for recent months are filled months after? I am not completely sure about it.

Do you know how many sales in March were in the March file? Is there a lag effect?

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26 minutes ago, Freki said:

Do you know how many sales in March were in the March file? Is there a lag effect?

No I don't.

The number for the last months are not matching anyway. the total recode count is 215032 in the file. That's significantly lower than what it should be.

It should be around 350000. Probably the land registery's data is not reliable source for this kind of analysis. :(

 

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2 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I remember looking into this in 2015, we normally see a rise in house prices in the run up to an election ( buying votes ? ) and the 2015 election was no different.

 

DBEx_lMXYAAsczh.jpg

 

The 2017 election has been a surprise event so it's difficult to say if it's had any real effect.

 

The manipulation of the market though for political gain is quite clear, to me at least.

if they think/know prices are going through the floor then they had to risk having an election now rather than in 2020 when the prices might be bottoming out.

 

 

From an economic perspective, to sustain these prices BoE would need to keep a static base rate for 30 years. Unfortunately this country is gearing towards a reset compounded by inflation from US base rate increases to stabilise and off load its debt pile. 

They raise rates in the UK it will collapse the market, hence why every month new dovey mumbo jumbo comes out to bend true reality, but at some stage has to face the music.. 

Foreign investors will cash out, hoping to make a profit, before values depreciates and the currency appreciates. 

Local citizens well lets just say, the average salary will not be rising any time soon, jobs in London will shrink again, its near certainty that the only way to maintain this is to continue with further credit and reluctance is neigh.

We're at the mercy of the US and the manipulation of oil prices, if those prices rise, inflation will rocket.

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