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What's going on with the seasonal adjustment in the BoE spreadsheet? 

seasonally adjusted figures = 64,645 mortgages for house purchase in Apr 2017 vs 66,182 in Apr 2016

non-seasonally adjusted figures = 62,404 in Apr 2017 vs 71,866 in Apr 2016

 

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15 minutes ago, Patient London FTB said:

What's going on with the seasonal adjustment in the BoE spreadsheet? 

seasonally adjusted figures = 64,645 mortgages for house purchase in Apr 2017 vs 66,182 in Apr 2016

non-seasonally adjusted figures = 62,404 in Apr 2017 vs 71,866 in Apr 2016

 

Big fat lies. Corrupt Carney 

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24 minutes ago, Patient London FTB said:

What's going on with the seasonal adjustment in the BoE spreadsheet? 

seasonally adjusted figures = 64,645 mortgages for house purchase in Apr 2017 vs 66,182 in Apr 2016

non-seasonally adjusted figures = 62,404 in Apr 2017 vs 71,866 in Apr 2016

 

Was it because of the Mar16 rush? Mortgage being approved in Apr16? It would make sense then.

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The affordability criteria has tightened. A chap at work was complaining that the difference between what he could borrow Sept 16 and now is exactly 100k, the lender just tightened their affordability checker. Spent a good six months viewing properties that he thought were in his price range. 

It's just a nasty stinking corpse with the pretence of being alive and healthy. 

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42 minutes ago, Patient London FTB said:

What's going on with the seasonal adjustment in the BoE spreadsheet? 

seasonally adjusted figures = 64,645 mortgages for house purchase in Apr 2017 vs 66,182 in Apr 2016

non-seasonally adjusted figures = 62,404 in Apr 2017 vs 71,866 in Apr 2016

 

Timing of Easter this year?

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5 minutes ago, AvoidDebt said:

The affordability criteria has tightened. A chap at work was complaining that the difference between what he could borrow Sept 16 and now is exactly 100k, the lender just tightened their affordability checker. Spent a good six months viewing properties that he thought were in his price range. 

It's just a nasty stinking corpse with the pretence of being alive and healthy. 

Any idea the price range of the properties, deposit and/or his salary? 100K less of a mortgage is a lot around the average but not so much around the £1m+ mark.

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3 minutes ago, AvoidDebt said:

The affordability criteria has tightened. A chap at work was complaining that the difference between what he could borrow Sept 16 and now is exactly 100k, the lender just tightened their affordability checker. Spent a good six months viewing properties that he thought were in his price range. 

It's just a nasty stinking corpse with the pretence of being alive and healthy. 

£100k + interest of debt that he now won't have to pay back and he's complaining? Talk about your glass being half empty!

Chap in my work was moaning about the trouble he's having selling his "£160k house" because the prospective buyers' mortgages keep falling through at the last minute. I didn't have the heart to point out that the house is probably no longer worth £160k.

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10 minutes ago, doahh said:

Any idea the price range of the properties, deposit and/or his salary? 100K less of a mortgage is a lot around the average but not so much around the £1m+ mark.

London based looking at properties around 700. Contractor so might be something specific to that. 

Edited by AvoidDebt

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8 minutes ago, Diver Dan said:

£100k + interest of debt that he now won't have to pay back and he's complaining? Talk about your glass being half empty!

The problem in London is that this is not yet reflected in asking prices. Still way too many stubborn sellers, anything less than full whack is an insult. 

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3 minutes ago, AvoidDebt said:

 

London based looking at around 700. Contractor so might be something specific to that. 

My other half and I were caught out earlier this year. Professional couple (accountant and solicitor) with no kids or dependents, no debt, excellent credit scores etc etc. I've even cleared my student loan. Offered on a place only to find that the AIP they'd given us was no longer accurate since they'd lowered joint multiples by a factor of 1 so down from 5.5 to 4.5. 

It could be down to being a 'self employed' contractor I guess but following the MMR 2016 multiples are restricted from Jan 2017. I think this has been covered in detail on another thread though so I'll steer clear of boring you all to death with the blurb. In short, lower multiples = lower mortgages = lower prices. 

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4 minutes ago, AvoidDebt said:

The problem in London is that this is not yet reflected in asking prices. Still way too many stubborn sellers, anything less than full whack is an insult. 

This is the fly in the soup of the pending crash. Unless there is a catalyst forcing sales many people will sit in their houses, quietly paying the mortgage (unless they can't for whatever reason) until prices get back.

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Availability of debt is the only thing that affects this. Everything else looking like BS. We should have seen it coming. As soon as they lowered that interest rate that should have been the trigger. Pile in and switch off....no idea how to make a crying emoji but need lots. 

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A recession is typically accompanied by a drop in the stock market, an increase in unemployment, and a decline in the housing market. 1 out of 3 isn't a bad start.... They can't drop interest rates to continue stimulating the economy. They will lose 4.5 million European taxpayers. Businesses are shifting towards low cost areas.... Its going to be one heck of a hangover.... from one monster high. :D

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13 minutes ago, adarmo said:

This is the fly in the soup of the pending crash. Unless there is a catalyst forcing sales many people will sit in their houses, quietly paying the mortgage (unless they can't for whatever reason) until prices get back.

What, no one dies, changes jobs, loose jobs, get divorced, go back to Warsaw, have children, see capital controls and a collapsed economy forcing them to liquidate their assets asap ( china ) ?

The soup is made of flies.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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19 minutes ago, AvoidDebt said:

The problem in London is that this is not yet reflected in asking prices. Still way too many stubborn sellers, anything less than full whack is an insult. 

Despite the 20% from peak collapse in some prime areas ?

Imagine what'll happen to the non-prime areas....or maybe we can call them sub-prime.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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9 minutes ago, AvoidDebt said:

Availability of debt and peoples willingness to take it on are the only things that affects this. Everything else looking like BS. We should have seen it coming. As soon as they lowered that interest rate that should have been the trigger. Pile in and switch off....no idea how to make a crying emoji but need lots. 

 

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14 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

What, no one dies, changes jobs, loose jobs, get divorced, go back to Warsaw, have children, see capital controls and a collapsed economy forcing them to liquidate their assets asap ( china ) ?

The soup is made of flies.

So you expect an increase in the natural run rate of this?

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9 minutes ago, adarmo said:

So you expect an increase in the natural run rate of this?

Lets see....

1) Aging population reaching an age where we could see a large increase in deaths ( been covered here before )

2) changes jobs, loose jobs, get divorced: All much more likely in a down tuirn

3) go back to Warsaw: Already started by all account, when REAL Brexit happens of the British peolpe start openly beating foreigners the immigration will end.

4) see capital controls and a collapsed economy forcing them to liquidate their assets asap ( china ): Dead cert by all accounts.

 

So, yes.

 

Dont you ?

 

I forgot, the bankers might want to crash prices as no one is borrowing + The US might keep raising rates and the UK has to follows.  I wouldnt exclude massive pressure being put of the British government to stop selling houses to foreigners too.

Not much points to further rises.  Sure they maybe can keep it high for a while but when an "event" happens it'll go through the floor.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Just now, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Lets see....

1) Aging population reaching an age where we could see a large increase in deaths ( been covered here before )

2) changes jobs, loose jobs, get divorced: All much more likely in a down tuirn

3) go back to Warsaw: Already started by all account, when REAL Brexit happens of the British peolpe start openly beating foreigners the immigration will end.

4) see capital controls and a collapsed economy forcing them to liquidate their assets asap ( china ): Dead cert by all accounts.

 

So, yes.

1. Ageing population by definition is getting older. That means they die later. Do you have any metrics showing an increase in deaths?

2. Downturn? Do you mean slowing? People tend to be less likely to switch jobs in a downturn Do you have any metrics?

3. If you say so... but I don't see what Warsaw has to do with it. I think you're alluding to a position of net migration, rather than net immigration? Do you have any metrics

4. Capital controls would prevent money leaving but do not recall money that has already left. There might be margin calls on accounts but..... again.... do you have any metrics?

Not doubting you, just keen to see the metrics. 

Thanks

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10 minutes ago, adarmo said:

1. Ageing population by definition is getting older. That means they die later. Do you have any metrics showing an increase in deaths? They dont f**king live for ever, "been covered here before", go look it up, I'm not your PA.

2. Downturn? Do you mean slowing? People tend to be less likely to switch jobs in a downturn Do you have any metrics?  Apart from the ones that loose their jobs.

3. If you say so... but I don't see what Warsaw has to do with it. I think you're alluding to a position of net migration, rather than net immigration? Do you have any metrics The immigration figures last week showed an increase in EU nationals going home.

4. Capital controls would prevent money leaving but do not recall money that has already left. There might be margin calls on accounts but..... again.... do you have any metrics? NO, JUST THE LONDON BUBBLE COLLAPSING.

Not doubting you, YES YOU ARE  HAVE SOME BACK BONE AND SAY IT just keen to see the metrics. 

Thanks

I hate to say  it, but Trolly McTrollFace is back :lol: 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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11 minutes ago, adarmo said:

1. Ageing population by definition is getting older. That means they die later. Do you have any metrics showing an increase in deaths?

2. Downturn? Do you mean slowing? People tend to be less likely to switch jobs in a downturn Do you have any metrics?

3. If you say so... but I don't see what Warsaw has to do with it. I think you're alluding to a position of net migration, rather than net immigration? Do you have any metrics

4. Capital controls would prevent money leaving but do not recall money that has already left. There might be margin calls on accounts but..... again.... do you have any metrics?

Not doubting you, just keen to see the metrics. 

Thanks

1. No. Aging popuation means we have a larger number of older people. People have always got old; we've just not had so many old people at one time.

The mortallily stats are basically 50% of people over the age of 60 will be dead in 10 years time. Id ponder that when you go a to a plce where the bulk of the local OO population is over 55.

2. Wrasaw, Libthinai, Prageu. Whatever. Beneits are likely to stop and theres ~3m EEers dependent on them.

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2 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

UK mortgage approvals slide to seven-month low as housing market softens

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-lending-idUKKBN18R0YK

 

I assume by soften they mean, collapse.

 

Mortgage approval and softening are not connected.

basically, computer says now on so many mortgages.

Got luck selling a house.

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