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anonlymouse

Nationwide Predictions Thread

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Nationwide HPI is due out any day now (I was expecting it this morning but there you go). The rates for March were MoM -0.3% / Annual +3.5%. In April it went down to MoM -0.4%, Annual +2.6%.

Will the negative month on month trend continue to increase? Will the annual trend continue to slow at the current rate (April annual growth was 25% lower than March annual growth) or will it accelerate?

There have been lots of bearish news articles this month so will this have filtered through to sentiment yet? Or will it take a few months of consistent negative figures for that to take hold. 

I'm predicting -0.6% MoM, with +1.7% annual. Depreciating in real terms but still positive in cash terms.

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Negative again, a chunkyish one I reckon; 0.5 - 0.6%

I imagine they'll do their usual ramping with the Annual figure - "House prices are UP 1.7% since this time last years as buyers are flocking to the market. The month of May saw a slight downturn of 0.6% as people stopped looking at houses to enjoy some of the hottest days of the year and flocked to buy Cornettos".

Queue the "Cornetto prices set to SOAR" or "Ice Cream BOOM" headline of the back of the above ;)

In sum:

  • Ramp the YoY
  • Blame the hot weather on lack of sales

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2 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

A week or so before the election.  Guaranteed to be up +0.0% 

I was thinking this - However I was thinking it was -0.X% voters would put it down to political uncertainty?

It would certainly allow the VIs to scapegoat a big drop.

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38 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

-2%....that'll panic everyone into voting tory.

Looks like London owners are trying to cash in an down size....but they hit a snag...the country doesn't have enough affordable buyers.... I hope they vote tory's even better a hung parliament that would continue the pounding of sterling... inflation rises with risk association with doing business with the UK...

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43 minutes ago, maverick73 said:

Looks like London owners are trying to cash in an down size....but they hit a snag...the country doesn't have enough affordable buyers.... I hope they vote tory's even better a hung parliament that would continue the pounding of sterling... inflation rises with risk association with doing business with the UK...

......yes, those being ready, willing and able.;)

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1 hour ago, maverick73 said:

Looks like London owners are trying to cash in an down size....but they hit a snag...the country doesn't have enough affordable buyers.... I hope they vote tory's even better a hung parliament that would continue the pounding of sterling... inflation rises with risk association with doing business with the UK...

Was always going to be the case. Lots of 700k 5 bed house in northants now...were selling circa 400k at bank collapsing peak in 2007.

The 400k prices were not sustainable with local wages so the 700k ones will destroy anyone mug enough to buy.

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10 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Lots of 700k 5 bed house in northants now...were selling circa 400k at bank collapsing peak in 2007.

It's not an area that I look at but no reason to doubt you. Did anyone actually predict that things would become this insane? How ugly is the housing game. 

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12 minutes ago, AvoidDebt said:

Are we actually witnessing this? Certainly feels like it when you look on rightmove. 

592dd9a54a20e_WorthlessGermanMarkThevalueoftheGermanmarkplummeted.Itoftentookshopperswheelbarrowsofmoneytogoshoppingformilkorbread..jpg.db99fa5d05fe944028633180a5c795a4.jpg

 

Wheel barrow making is the business to be in then.  Dyson may even win again with that ball barrow making a come back.  That picture is classic and really makes you think about fiat, what you're paid in, why you work for it etc.

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9 hours ago, satch said:

Where we are there is a 4 bed terrace on for 1,000,000 which sold for c250,000 in 1999, and so has increased by 42,000 per year every year for the past 18 years. Totally insane. What have wages done in that time .... roughly from 300pw to 520pw .... call it a generous double rather than 175%. The house is 4X and wages are (at best) 2X .... still it is 'affordable' with mortgage rates at (probably) all-time lows, but I would not want to repay the capital unless we have the 1922 German inflation rates.

Those official figures for wages are so weird and contra to anything I know. I can only imagine they are being skewed by executive pay and rises in the minImum wage. For everyone else, it's more or less as you were. 

Avg grad salary around my peers in 1999 - 20k

Avg starting salary today (from chatting to newbies) in same sort of job - 25k

So more like 25%.

Similar applies to more senior levels. 40k was good then, 45k still seen as ok by most now. 

Crazy.

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4 minutes ago, Frugal Git said:

Those official figures for wages are so weird and contra to anything I know. I can only imagine they are being skewed by executive pay and rises in the minImum wage. For everyone else, it's more or less as you were. 

Avg grad salary around my peers in 1999 - 20k

Avg starting salary today (from chatting to newbies) in same sort of job - 25k

So more like 25%.

Similar applies to more senior levels. 40k was good then, 45k still seen as ok by most now. 

Crazy.

My income's hardly budged in a decade.  Probably getting less now than in 2010. 

I'm sitting in a room full of immigrants working for a fraction of what the brits get paid.

 

 

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I was thinking on the IO thread. Why not take out an IO mortgage on a thirty year term. In thirty years time sell the property to one of your kids, below market value for the outstanding capital amount so that they can then take out a conventional interest + capital mortgage. Of course the plan is full of all sorts of pot holes but does go to show that two generations and two full lifetimes worth of work to get your hands on the same property that someone managed on a teachers wages. 

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28 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

School boy error starting a prediction thread 2 days before.

No man, it's good, ramp up the excitement. I have nothing else.

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41 minutes ago, satch said:

Interestingly enough I looked at what I earned in 1999 / 2000 and yes today I would earn 25% more, at a push maybe 30%. All I know is that the house I bought in 1983 as FTB at 3X plus 10% deposit would today be over 12x equivalent salary and I would probably not be able to buy it as a FTB with ANY of my subsequent salaries and I had a fairly good career progression from techie to manager to MD.

It's was a sub-prime bubble...that turned into a full blown ponzi....that turned into a state sponsored ponzi...that turned into a full blown mania

mark my words....in decades to come people will write of the Housing Mania that swept the world at the start of the 21st century.

Maybe the doomsayers were right, the world did end in 2000, well the start of the end at least

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5 hours ago, Frugal Git said:

Those official figures for wages are so weird and contra to anything I know. I can only imagine they are being skewed by executive pay and rises in the minImum wage. For everyone else, it's more or less as you were. 

Avg grad salary around my peers in 1999 - 20k

Avg starting salary today (from chatting to newbies) in same sort of job - 25k

So more like 25%.

Similar applies to more senior levels. 40k was good then, 45k still seen as ok by most now. 

Crazy.

Skewed by the bottom end as well...

Minimum wage now £7.50 which is £15.6k on a 40 hour week - that has more than doubled, it was £3.60 in 1999 (£7.5k)

The cost of living has obviously ripped that straight out of the pockets of the working poor again though.

2000 in Manchester me & the ex were earning about £13.5k each. We were running 2 cars on that and renting a house without running up any debts. Both up to £20k a year later for jobs that probably pay £28-32k now.

The squeezed middle? I would love to see some detailed analysis on it.

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