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HPC crazy? No.

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A couple of posts on another thread suggested people who waited 10 years for a crash should have just bought a house back then. Had they done so they would be better off now.

For a moment I doubted myself. Began to think I am crazy. Everyone else is right. I should just buy a house.

Then I remembered, this isn't just about us, now. This is about future FTBs, including those not even old enough to buy yet, or even born!

Of course in hindsight many people would be better off going back in time and buying a house in 2007 at peak prices. But. And it is a big but. What about an early 20s or 30s FTB? They couldn't afford to buy back then, let alone now. What about my kids starting school? Should they have bought 10 years ago? Even I couldn't afford to buy back then with tiny deposit and cr@p salary.

So when people say "accept it, just buy". No I will not accept it. We're at the top of a wave now, and I'm gonna ride it out. Ageing population, shrinking ownership levels in all age groups (except OAPs!). Things must change and they will change.

Just because a few should/could have bought a house a few years back does not mean that applies to all of us.

We cannot give up on safe, secure shelter at a reasonable price.

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I calculated that between the madgainz, the rent, the maintenance and the investment returns that not buying back in 2007 cost me £95,000.  It was a leverage or gearing play.  Should I have bought that house?  I'm so glad I didn't.  By not buying I had to go in a different direction to the herd.  I had to think critically and I had to think creatively.  That meant I ended up with a Plan B which today sees me with £1.2M in wealth and the opportunity to FIRE later this year which will include a move to the Mediterranean sun.  I'll never have to focus on sh*t over priced houses again and instead can focus on what's important - quality of life.

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Given that I am London-based, have a family, I am glad I bought for reasons of stability. 

But house prices have subsequently become so absurd that a fall is inevitable. Because you did not buy at £X does not justify buying at £2X.

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2 hours ago, Grab_Some_Popcorn said:

A couple of posts on another thread suggested people who waited 10 years for a crash should have just bought a house back then. Had they done so they would be better off now.

I separated from the ex around 2012, was about to buy in 2013 at around the time HTB 2 came in, went overseas for a job for a couple of months came back and prices were literally up 10%. I was a rabbit in a headlight not knowing what to do.

I could have bought a 3 bed bungalow for 220k with a 1 year salary mortgage, same place now is approx 320k maybe more and now id need a relatively large mortgage which i can;t take on as i've a kid to look after on my own.But even 2013 prices were well over priced and in bubble territory, hence why i was in no major rush to buy.

I hate Gidiot/Carney and the Tory party for this,  these people are scum of the earth who have played a game with my kids life and the lives of millions of others as they thought it would help them win an election. 

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13 minutes ago, TulipsFromThreadneedle said:

I separated from the ex around 2012, was about to buy in 2013 at around the time HTB 2 came in, went overseas for a job for a couple of months came back and prices were literally up 10%. I was a rabbit in a headlight not knowing what to do.

I could have bought a 3 bed bungalow for 220k with a 1 year salary mortgage, same place now is approx 320k maybe more and now id need a relatively large mortgage which i can;t take on as i've a kid to look after on my own.But even 2013 prices were well over priced and in bubble territory, hence why i was in no major rush to buy.

I hate Gidiot/Carney and the Tory party for this,  these people are scum of the earth who have played a game with my kids life and the lives of millions of others as they thought it would help them win an election. 

Yep, they have been doing the unthinkable for a long time now.

So they will carry on, the question is what more can they do?

They need people to borrow more money, they do this by providing cheap money, the market has now become saturated again.

Wages now need to rise or taxes need to be cut, I can't see either happening. The policy has failed and is now making things a lot worse .

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Think we are at saturation point now. no more endless upwards momentum or speculation. Should at least account for 10% price reduction just from the froth being removed. 

i was too young to buy 10 years ago. I think I'm slightly worse off for not buying a few years ago. but even a small correction or even stagnating level prices will have me about even due to my current % of wage savings rates. 

The real cost is my health due to excess commuting to save on rent. 

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20 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

The real cost is my health due to excess commuting to save on rent. 

I think this is an extremely important point.  High (absurd even) housing costs are ruining peoples physical and mental health.  Its scandalous and yet rarely talked about.  You hear too many stories about people spending over two hours a day commuting in each direction.  What this must be doing to individuals health, the environment and the quality of life in this country in the long term is hard to comprehend.

Edited by dougless

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Yes to wait for HPC is crazy.I am considerably worse off. Ill give you a couple of examples. A property i should of bought in 2014 (sold for 280k), was recently sold this year for 430k. A property i should of bought in 2011 for 550, was sold for 975k in 2016. Over the same time i have wasted thousands on rent and have nothing to show for it, IMO my quality of life is worse not better as i dont have a garden to weed or a wall to knock down. I worry about a stain on my landlords carpet. My deposit value has shrunk in real terms and mortgages would of been half the rent. Waiting for HPC under the current regime is a mugs game. Why am i not buying now, ive been looking for 2 years now and im priced out of what i want unless i take a shit size mortgage. Anything i want to buy usually has about 15 other competing offers as its the only thing either me or the other poor mugs in my position can afford. The housing system is royally ******ed when people like me who have been on the ladder and have equity are priced out. FTBs are even worse off. The system is screwed. Sorry about the rant!

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5 minutes ago, dougless said:

You hear too many stories about people spending over two hours a day commuting in each direction.

I once did that for 2 months. Bus - train - walk. It was draining and miserable. Never again.

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over two hours commute for over 2.5 years now, constantly tired, put a lot if weight on. No time or energy for hobbies, all my holidays used up for long weekends just to recover from the commute. And of course there is the danger of doing so much driving, frequency, severity, occurrence nearly got wiped out the other day from someone not indicating or using their mirrors, last year a woman pull out of a junction without looking smashing into my lotus and spinning me into oncoming traffic (rare that i use it for commute now). But basically if i were to continue this commute the odds are eventually i would be killed to death, could take 10 years or 15 years. If i didnt have a first generation 90MPG Honda Insight the fuel cost would be very very high, thankfully its only £30 for two weeks fuel.  

It's not ideal. But i hate debt (having spent years in university and young adult life not being able to pay bills). I dont want a massive mortgage. i dont want the fear of interest rates. But slowly edging my way to a 40% deposit for a 'forever' type home. Girlfriend spent 12 months working 6 day weeks also. We are spending some of the best years of our lives smashing out the savings, thankfully we live in cornwall so it costs nothing to enjoy the place (much harder when i lived in Birmingham and Bradford, although i did cycle all the canals many times which was nice)

The annoying thing is the slow progress on the % deposit, we are saving faster than prices are going up, but only just. If prices were to stagnate we could easily shoot up to 60-70% deposit in a short time, just need prices to stagnate for 12 months. If prices has remained at 2013 prices we could of had a tiny mortgage. 

At how long can i let my health suffer? well its a gamble, another 2 years maybe. I think it wouldn't take me too long to undo the damage (18 months with no commute). High prices are certainly delaying children also. 

 

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6 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

over two hours commute for over 2.5 years now, constantly tired, put a lot if weight on. No time or energy for hobbies, all my holidays used up for long weekends just to recover from the commute. 

At how long can i let my health suffer? well its a gamble, another 2 years maybe. I think it wouldn't take me too long to undo the damage (18 months with no commute). High prices are certainly delaying children also. 

I've had an average 2 hours each way commute for about 15 years now, its really par for the course if your IT contracting (unless your prepared to live in london of course).

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Yeah, a client at work asked me the other day what hobbies I have. Realised I no longer have any. Quite depressing really. Difficult to set up a man cave when you have no stake in a house and scared to make a mark.

Decision to sell house, relocate and save a better deposit due to job loss in 2011 feeling like a life changing and life destroying decision.

Edited by btd1981

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For a true crash requires one hell of an divorce battle....... everyone will move to where jobs are... houses will remain empty until the UK becomes like the Swiss.... a tax haven.

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45 minutes ago, btd1981 said:

Yeah, a client at work asked me the other day what hobbies I have. Realised I no longer have any. Quite depressing really. Difficult to set up a man cave when you have no stake in a house and scared to make a mark.

Decision to sell house, relocate and save a better deposit due to job loss in 2011 feeling like a life changing and life destroying decision.

Take your skills overseas. ****** em. I'm looking about.

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Where's the fight in you all? I've just bought a campervan to live in full time. I'm not working to pay rent and commute costs, that's just crazy. You barely need any money when you remove housing from your bills.

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2 hours ago, honkydonkey said:

Where's the fight in you all? I've just bought a campervan to live in full time. I'm not working to pay rent and commute costs, that's just crazy. You barely need any money when you remove housing from your bills.

Both myself and my partner live at our respective parents rent free, but thats 35 miles from work, hence the commute. However i did consider the camper van route, when my previous role was far from parents, and have had friends convert horse boxes also. 

If i didn't have life plans for children eventually i would live in a camper long term 'on the down low'. lots of places you can park as long as you do move daily. Get some pictures of your van up :) what model is it? what do you do for electric, internet, heating? do you think you will survive the winter? were will you park it?

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8 hours ago, Ah-so said:

Given that I am London-based, have a family, I am glad I bought for reasons of stability. 

But house prices have subsequently become so absurd that a fall is inevitable. Because you did not buy at £X does not justify buying at £2X.

This was us and we bought for stability in London.  We're in a 2 bed house and no way would I fork out the ridiculous cash needed for a 3 bed in my area. 

Considering we bought in 2010 for £200k and 3 beds were £230-250k it blows my mind they are now £500k +.

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1 hour ago, Grab_Some_Popcorn said:

I feel like the last bear that has only ever rented, and maybe always will

No, there's at least two of us.

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13 hours ago, wish I could afford one said:

I calculated that between the madgainz, the rent, the maintenance and the investment returns that not buying back in 2007 cost me £95,000.  It was a leverage or gearing play.  Should I have bought that house?  I'm so glad I didn't.  By not buying I had to go in a different direction to the herd.  I had to think critically and I had to think creatively.  That meant I ended up with a Plan B which today sees me with £1.2M in wealth and the opportunity to FIRE later this year which will include a move to the Mediterranean sun.  I'll never have to focus on sh*t over priced houses again and instead can focus on what's important - quality of life.

Can I have some investment tips please :-)

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