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Foreverblowingbubbles

Germany to be labelled currency manipulators?

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Just seen this article in the telegraph. 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/26/germans-bad-really-bad-donald-trump-tells-eu-officials/

Whilst I disagree with Trump on a great many things - and you can't always read his intention from his statements -  there seems to be a growing anti German line coming from the USA. Could we be heading toward a situation where Germany are labelled currency manipulators and have tariffs imposed? Would it be justified? And what could Germany be doing differently to assuage these fears? 

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Trump needs an interpreter to translate into English, which makes it subject to interpretation. Basing any sort of opinion on what he says is pointless, it's not as if any of it will become official American policy.

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3 hours ago, TulipsFromThreadneedle said:

Trump is all fart and no shyt, he can label them what he wants at the end of the day they ill conitnue to use the euro which is priced accordingly due to having nations close to turning into banana republics using it.

All fart and no shyte... Not heard that one before!

The euro is correctly priced considering the range of countries that use it, but Germany of course benefits massively by being lumped in with the weaker economies.

He does have some leverage though. Tariffs specifically on cars would play massively into US manufacturing hands, so would likely be popular at home. Also on  the nato payments - although he can't get Germany to 'pay back what they owe', he has rightly pointed out that they're meant to be contributing 2% of their gbp to defence (by 2024,i think) , and they're not planning on doing it. 

Germany wants international aid to be included as defence spending, I'm not sure what the status of that is, whether it's generally been agreed that's ok up til now. But yeah, by the outline of nato agreements as I understand them, Germany should be paying about 1% more of their gdp into defence - which amounts to ~$30 billion per year. 

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Just now, Foreverblowingbubbles said:

All fart and no shyte... Not heard that one before!

The euro is correctly priced considering the range of countries that use it, but Germany of course benefits massively by being lumped in with the weaker economies.

He does have some leverage though. Tariffs specifically on cars would play massively into US manufacturing hands, so would likely be popular at home. Also on  the nato payments - although he can't get Germany to 'pay back what they owe', he has rightly pointed out that they're meant to be contributing 2% of their gbp to defence (by 2024,i think) , and they're not planning on doing it. 

Germany wants international aid to be included as defence spending, I'm not sure what the status of that is, whether it's generally been agreed that's ok up til now. But yeah, by the outline of nato agreements as I understand them, Germany should be paying about 1% more of their gdp into defence - which amounts to ~$30 billion per year. 

Euro - too low for germany/nlands. Too high fir everyone else,

The issue of germany not putting up for nato predates trump. Despite its claims to be a good citizen, germany have been having a free ride for quite a bit. Letting in 2m migrants was its attemot at stepping up. Moronic really. More so for the rest if europe esp. Uk as thars where the migrants will end up.

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1 minute ago, spyguy said:

The issue of germany not putting up for nato predates trump. Despite its claims to be a good citizen, germany have been having a free ride for quite a bit. 

True that. Even though trump is a clown and seems now he's in office also completely inept, it's interesting that he's at least willing to rock the boat. 

As tulips said, he could be all trump and no dump, but it's not out of the realm of possibility for him to choose Germany as a relatively 'safe' play to try and bully compared to China, for example

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Germany have definitely been having a free ride, but using the low value (compared to where the Deutschemark would have been) is a very dangerous game which will blow up in their faces eventually.

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This article is good, it covers the statements members of the trump administration have made that imply they could head down the route of labelling them currency manipulators, as well as outlining their opinions on why it wouldn't be right to do so. 

https://piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/germany-currency-manipulator

Time will tell... 

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34 minutes ago, reddog said:

Germany have definitely been having a free ride, but using the low value (compared to where the Deutschemark would have been) is a very dangerous game which will blow up in their faces eventually.

Not before greece, spain and italy are blown up though.

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1 hour ago, spyguy said:

Euro - too low for germany/nlands. Too high fir everyone else,

Germany benefits from a regional currency in the same way London does.

 

The funny thing about the reaction to Trump is, everything he says or does gets a critical reaction, but at the same time Eurpeans (and others) are actually openly admitting the substance what he is saying (ie, Germany benefits from the currency, and from other countries' willingness to import, America is disadvantaged by nafta, Europe has had a free ride with Nato).

 

(Not that I'm wholly convinced of the merit of the argment. I think America gets a lot of intangible benefits from its "generosity")

Edited by Steppenpig

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1 hour ago, Foreverblowingbubbles said:

Germany wants international aid to be included as defence spending, I'm not sure what the status of that is, whether it's generally been agreed that's ok up til now. But yeah, by the outline of nato agreements as I understand them, Germany should be paying about 1% more of their gdp into defence - which amounts to ~$30 billion per year. 

 

International aid isn't included in the NATO 2% spending commitment. If it were, the UK could add another 0.7% to the 2.2% we currently spend on defence.

 

I think we should take a leaf out of Germany's book though and cut our defence spending to a similar level.

 

The fact is, we insist on acting like a global power when we've hardly got a pot to piss in. Look at where that attitude has landed us. Germany eliminated their structural deficit 2 years ago, whereas we've barely made a dent in ours.

 

 

Edited by EssKay

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10 minutes ago, Steppenpig said:

Germany benefits from a regional currency in the same way London does.

 

The funny thing about the reaction to Trump is, everything he says or does gets a critical reaction, but at the same time Eurpeans (and others) are actually openly admitting the substance what he is saying (ie, Germany benefits from the currency, and from other countries' willingness to import, America is disadvantaged by nafta, Europe has had a free ride with Nato).

 

(Not that I'm wholly convinced of the merit of the argment. I think America gets a lot of intangible benefits from its "generosity")

Yes and no re US and trade.

Up til 20 years ago, trade did not affect the us much. Even today traded goods are not a massive thing with the us economy. In th main, americans drive american cars and trucks, dont travel, eat american sourced food. But like finance, which is much smaller as a percentage of the US economy.

US and americans were happy to use trade as a means of soft power - yep, well buy your clothes, bananas, pineapples.

Us and europe trade was pretty balanced  we buy their computers, they buy our posh food and large luxury german cars and range rovers. We go to disney land, they go to london, paris, florence.

Then china came on the scene. A quick look at the numbers screams scam. A slower check where you can see zilzch/ transparent barriers to chinese goods in us/eu.

Then look at trade the other way. Ffs students stuff baby milk into their luggage as it cannot be imported.

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11 hours ago, spyguy said:

Yes and no re US and trade.

Up til 20 years ago, trade did not affect the us much. Even today traded goods are not a massive thing with the us economy. In th main, americans drive american cars and trucks, dont travel, eat american sourced food. But like finance, which is much smaller as a percentage of the US economy.

US and americans were happy to use trade as a means of soft power - yep, well buy your clothes, bananas, pineapples.

Us and europe trade was pretty balanced  we buy their computers, they buy our posh food and large luxury german cars and range rovers. We go to disney land, they go to london, paris, florence.

Then china came on the scene. A quick look at the numbers screams scam. A slower check where you can see zilzch/ transparent barriers to chinese goods in us/eu.

Then look at trade the other way. Ffs students stuff baby milk into their luggage as it cannot be imported.

China were on the scene prior to 2008, they became mor prominent as a way to make money while America fixed its mess.

As for the UK... well I'm looking forward to more disruption from the fallout... the increased risky means it becomes more expensive to borrow money.... Forcing the BoE to either raise rates (Strong Pound, Cheaper Imports) or print money (Weaker Pound, Expensive Imports). 

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