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Deflationary collapse and the Reflation Cycle to Come.


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HOLA441
5 hours ago, ThePrufeshanul said:

Interesting reading back some of the posts in this thread.

Does anyone know if Durhamborn is still posting here or elsewhere?

Let’s just say fools come together!

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HOLA445
5 hours ago, micawber said:

Was reminded today of the original prediction. You don't get much smarter than this:- including predicting the double digit inflation 5 years prior.

image.thumb.png.ac64cfbf5ef78b5b678cfb9bbd04dcfc.png

Well he was certainly right about inflation "reaching double figures"

But *before* that he said there would be "wealth destruction on a scale few can even imagine" and leverage destroying "business and individuals on a scale not seen since the late 1920s"

There has been nothing anywhere near this!  Modest falls in equity prices, and a very small downtick (so far) in housing is all that has happened before the inflationary cycle hit.

So his comment about "those who survived the deflationary collapse" at the moment I'd say is pretty much everyone.  The odd crypto exchange is the only thing that's really gone bust prior to the 10%+ inflation taking hold.

 

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HOLA446
6 hours ago, micawber said:

Was reminded today of the original prediction. You don't get much smarter than this:- including predicting the double digit inflation 5 years prior.

He was wrong, but it was an interesting kind of wrong.

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HOLA447
3 hours ago, scottbeard said:

Well he was certainly right about inflation "reaching double figures"

But *before* that he said there would be "wealth destruction on a scale few can even imagine" and leverage destroying "business and individuals on a scale not seen since the late 1920s"

There has been nothing anywhere near this!  Modest falls in equity prices, and a very small downtick (so far) in housing is all that has happened before the inflationary cycle hit.

So his comment about "those who survived the deflationary collapse" at the moment I'd say is pretty much everyone.  The odd crypto exchange is the only thing that's really gone bust prior to the 10%+ inflation taking hold.

 

I think that you are about to start seeing that destruction. Ask a few LL's how it's going, and wait to see house prices correct to the new level of interest rates.

Anyone who followed his thread here and elsewhere made a lot of money over the last few years investing in the right areas e.g. oil/gas, potash, etc - all the places that are least sensitive to inflation.  

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1 hour ago, micawber said:

How was he wrong? Is there a better forecaster on here who deserves to be recognised?

See my post above about where he was wrong - there has not been a deflationary collapse greater than the Great Depression.  We have skipped straight to the inflation.

So his thread “deflationary collapse and reflation” gets half marks

The fact that few others did as well doesnt suddenly make that full marks  

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HOLA4410
7 hours ago, micawber said:

I think that you are about to start seeing that destruction. Ask a few LL's how it's going, and wait to see house prices correct to the new level of interest rates.

DB's argument was for debt deflation, in which prices collapse because the debt has become unservicable independent of any interest rate rises.  That didn't happen.

7 hours ago, micawber said:

Anyone who followed his thread here and elsewhere made a lot of money over the last few years investing in the right areas e.g. oil/gas, potash, etc - all the places that are least sensitive to inflation.  

I bought energy stocks in the 2020 dips because I like Tim Morgan's surplus energy economics (although I think he's wrong about quite a lot of stuff).  I'm financially independent now.  Energy stocks are the most sensititve to inflation, not the least.

7 hours ago, micawber said:

How was he wrong? Is there a better forecaster on here who deserves to be recognised?

Well, you know, modesty forbids but...

However, my point is not whose calls were right or wrong, but that it's better to make calls that lead to a discussion that makes people think and thus learn to make good calls themselves, rather than dull my position is right / your position is wrong threads like, dare I say it, the gold and crypto threads.

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