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Deflationary collapse and the Reflation Cycle to Come.


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Rather than put my thoughts in other threads about how i see the end of this cycle playing out i thought a thread dedicated to this would be a much better idea.Many other posters here have some great

How convenient.

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5 hours ago, Cosmic Apple said:

DBs primary thread is now elsewhere (a continuation of this one)... he will answer questions here when he can though is what he said yesterday.

pity as that site is not somewhere I would feel comfortable as the main page is full of threads containing imo racist/borderline racist/xenophobic postings.

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2 hours ago, ubuntu said:

pity as that site is not somewhere I would feel comfortable as the main page is full of threads containing imo racist/borderline racist/xenophobic postings.

I agree but equally not knowing what on earth going on with this website (why are they so secretive?) I wonder if its time to make a backup of this whole thread before it disappears completely!

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2 hours ago, ubuntu said:

pity as that site is not somewhere I would feel comfortable as the main page is full of threads containing imo racist/borderline racist/xenophobic postings.

Free speech involves tolerating other people saying things that you don't agree with.

Sometimes that's uncomfortable.

The alternatives are worse. 

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15 minutes ago, Habeas Domus said:

I agree but equally not knowing what on earth going on with this website (why are they so secretive?) I wonder if its time to make a backup of this whole thread before it disappears completely!

I tried.  There's no print option (In order to generate a complete all-in-one archive/PDF)

Edited by chronyx
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18 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

Free speech involves tolerating other people saying things that you don't agree with.

Sometimes that's uncomfortable.

The alternatives are worse. 

Don't have a problem with free speech at all as long as there's no incitement to violence, however my discomfort stems more from being associated with forums that may be blacklisted by authorities.

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6 hours ago, GeordieAndy said:

Yes please keep posting here as I'm following but not doing anything with the information other than trying to understand how it all links ?

Thats all we are all doing Andy,and the more people considering whats happening and providing their thoughts the better.This last cycle has lasted so long (since 1982) that hardly anyone even considers that it is a cycle.

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3 hours ago, ubuntu said:

pity as that site is not somewhere I would feel comfortable as the main page is full of threads containing imo racist/borderline racist/xenophobic postings.

Really? I haven't seen anything like that although I admit I've only visited briefly so far. Sure there is some banter/swearing that might offend some delicate readers but it seems to be all in good spirit and with good humour. It's like the HPC of olden days, in fact.

I think people have generally had enough of having to try to be so politically correct all the time these days.  Enough is enough, I think.

Sorry, I don't post here (or there) much as I don't have a lot of time or have anything much worthwhile to add anyway, but I am very grateful for the insights, knowledge and common sense of all the good people on HPC and I guess that someone being 'triggered' by alleged racism has 'triggered' me to post this.

I will continue reading both sites and if there is any actual racism or 'incitement to violence' then I'll make my own mind up and stay away accordingly.

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26 minutes ago, BadAlchemy said:

Really? I haven't seen anything like that although I admit I've only visited briefly so far. Sure there is some banter/swearing that might offend some delicate readers but it seems to be all in good spirit and with good humour. It's like the HPC of olden days, in fact.

I think people have generally had enough of having to try to be so politically correct all the time these days.  Enough is enough, I think.

Sorry, I don't post here (or there) much as I don't have a lot of time or have anything much worthwhile to add anyway, but I am very grateful for the insights, knowledge and common sense of all the good people on HPC and I guess that someone being 'triggered' by alleged racism has 'triggered' me to post this.

I will continue reading both sites and if there is any actual racism or 'incitement to violence' then I'll make my own mind up and stay away accordingly.

youve triggered me to go my safe place now

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13 hours ago, ubuntu said:

pity as that site is not somewhere I would feel comfortable as the main page is full of threads containing imo racist/borderline racist/xenophobic postings.

Absolute tosh.

 

I haven't seen one thing on there that could pass for one of your venerated isms.

 

It's attitudes like yours that are destroying this place.

 

What you mean is that you don't like people saying what they see as it jars with your desired view of the world.

 

Strange how the left are in favour of censorship always and everywhere, never the right.

 

As Orwell so beautifully put it, freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two equals four.

 

You're a five man.......

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Argentina gets $50bn large ones from the IMF.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/08/argentina-loan-imf-protests-peso

Quote

The International Monetary Fund has stepped in to shore up the Argentinian economy with a $50bn (£37bn) loan agreement.

Argentina requested assistance from the international lender of last resort on 8 May after the peso weakened sharply in an investor exodus from emerging markets.

As part of the deal, which is subject to IMF board approval, the government pledged to accelerate plans to reduce the fiscal deficit – the gap between government spending and revenue – even as authorities now foresee lower growth and higher inflation in the coming years.

The deal marks a turning point for Argentina, which for years shunned the IMF after a devastating economic crisis in 2001-02 that many Argentinians blamed on IMF-imposed austerity measures. The president Mauricio Macri’s decision to turn to the lender has triggered national protests.

“There is no magic: the IMF can help but Argentines need to resolve our own problems,” the treasury minister said at a news conference on Thursday. Nicolás Dujovne said he expected the IMF board to approve the deal during a meeting on 20 June. After that, he said he expected an immediate disbursement of 30% of the funding, or about $15bn.

:lol:

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5 hours ago, leonardratso said:

disbursment into his overseas pension pot more like.

No worries, they should mark the default date on their calendars, you know, for posterity.

Worth watching Argentina close.The new government is looking to do the right things and they could do really well in a reflation if they play their cards right.They need to hold down public spending though first.A lot of the big PM mining companies have been moving there over the last few years.Mexico looks like it might be going communist.Argentina might prove the best South American investment over the next 8 years.

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18 hours ago, durhamborn said:

Worth watching Argentina close.The new government is looking to do the right things and they could do really well in a reflation if they play their cards right.They need to hold down public spending though first.A lot of the big PM mining companies have been moving there over the last few years.Mexico looks like it might be going communist.Argentina might prove the best South American investment over the next 8 years.

And then he’ll be kicked out and replaced by a Peronist at the next election. Argentina for a country rich in natural resources seems to perenially mess up.

I agree that they have potential to do really well in a reflation. Most countries in South America have great potential to do so. They just all seem brilliant at shooting themselves in the foot over and over.

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On 27/04/2018 at 15:10, durhamborn said:

If i had a gun to my head i would say 3100.However it doesnt really bother me now as iv pretty much positioned,macro indicators are pointing very strongly to this being peak earnings in the growth stocks,or very close.Like you say sterling coming off my target of $1.41 was like clockwork (though it went over a couple of cents).I actually bought a lot of Imperial in the £23s based on that.I do keep seeing the dollar index as possible at 86,though it already hit my 88 target.Im very happy with how things have gone so far,my only call that is off is gold.I had expected it to break out of its long consolidation and run to $1450+,maybe $1550,but its struggled to get out of the mid $1300s.Its done well since the call,but is trailing where i expected it to be.It could be a coiled spring though and happy to hold positions.Equity strength is likely holding it back a bit.

I actually started to buy a lot of reflation stocks intending to get to around 30% of what i wanted,but they have done very very well.Im torn on if to sell some or not.

I love seeing everyone jumping for joy that their mortgages wont be going up much and its full steam ahead for houses prices.They couldnt be more wrong.Its not rates that are going to destroy prices,its a credit deflation.Rates will simply keep a big boot on their throat through the whole next cycle.Its pain all the way for the leveraged from here in.

When do you think the house prices will start to fall, next year or 2020s.

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1 hour ago, Quicken said:

Swiss referendum on real money results expected today. The vollgeld proposal was to make the snb the only authority able to create money. 

Opposed by the banks, snb, and government. Sadly, expected to fail.  

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-swiss-vote-sovereign/swiss-vote-on-whether-to-introduce-real-money-plan-idUSKBN1J60C0

Failed Bit surprising the world's most financially corrupt country would have a referendum like this but then I suppose there would be an equal opposite reaction backlash in the form of this campaign.

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First post but been lurking on here for a good 5 years.

I bought a place in 2014 from a inheritance and have a small mortgage of less than 10 years left. Income 50% higher than national average. Live on the outskirts of London. 

Very interested in this thread and have followed it since inception. 

I have focused before on commodities, gold and gold miners as well as agri-culture. Some big gains and losses and really over the last 5 years have broken even, although maybe a bit down due to inflation. I am ok with it as it is a learning curve after-all.

Anyway, I have just put some money into a new IPO for an Investment Trust focused on global infrastructure. I am sure if you Google it you will find out which one. I am thinking it is a good longer term bet with investment focused on developed countries.

I am a bit out with gold/gold miners as the OP stated it is surprising how suppressed gold is. I have a feeling if it really kicks off in EM's then the coiled spring might release (well I hope so!).

Anyway, interested to keep following the discussion. 

 

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