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Deflationary collapse and the Reflation Cycle to Come.


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Rather than put my thoughts in other threads about how i see the end of this cycle playing out i thought a thread dedicated to this would be a much better idea.Many other posters here have some great

How convenient.

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1 hour ago, Errol said:

Not for gaming, which is a massive market. 

For games latency and consistency is key. Fixed wire connection is always better.

Gaming. Streaming. Anything commercial. You need a fixed line, and that fixed line is going to be Fibre in the future.

Bandwidth requirements are going one way, UP UP UP, and it will be fixed fibre networks doing the heavy lifting, even in the consumer space. Mobile networks will see a huge increase in traffic sure, but only as part of a massive hike in traffic everywhere.

Edit: We don't have many any more, but we used to provide broadband connections to home users (directors of companies where we managed their business IT), and any household with teenage kids, you'd see 100GB in a month or more usage in a month on a regular basis. Try costing a SIM for that sort of usage.

Edited by Cosmic Apple
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28 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Gaming. Streaming. Anything commercial. You need a fixed line, and that fixed line is going to be Fibre in the future.

Bandwidth requirements are going one way, UP UP UP, and it will be fixed fibre networks doing the heavy lifting, even in the consumer space. Mobile networks will see a huge increase in traffic sure, but only as part of a massive hike in traffic everywhere.

Edit: We don't have many any more, but we used to provide broadband connections to home users (directors of companies where we managed their business IT), and any household with teenage kids, you'd see 100GB in a month or more usage in a month on a regular basis. Try costing a SIM for that sort of usage.

On that basis, I've just picked up some BT's shares at 204. Seems silly not to ;)

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32 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Gaming. Streaming. Anything commercial. You need a fixed line, and that fixed line is going to be Fibre in the future.

Bandwidth requirements are going one way, UP UP UP, and it will be fixed fibre networks doing the heavy lifting, even in the consumer space. Mobile networks will see a huge increase in traffic sure, but only as part of a massive hike in traffic everywhere.

Edit: We don't have many any more, but we used to provide broadband connections to home users (directors of companies where we managed their business IT), and any household with teenage kids, you'd see 100GB in a month or more usage in a month on a regular basis. Try costing a SIM for that sort of usage.

It's reached a point that many games are now the best part of 100GB.

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49 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Gaming. Streaming. Anything commercial. You need a fixed line, and that fixed line is going to be Fibre in the future.

Bandwidth requirements are going one way, UP UP UP, and it will be fixed fibre networks doing the heavy lifting, even in the consumer space. Mobile networks will see a huge increase in traffic sure, but only as part of a massive hike in traffic everywhere.

Edit: We don't have many any more, but we used to provide broadband connections to home users (directors of companies where we managed their business IT), and any household with teenage kids, you'd see 100GB in a month or more usage in a month on a regular basis. Try costing a SIM for that sort of usage.

I can't get exact stats but I will quite easily tip over 2TB per month on average and a rock solid 350Mbps is like air and water to me now.

God bless virgin media.

 

 

Edit to add: BT can apparently offer me 76Mbs ?

Edited by afly
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12 hours ago, Sancho Panza said:
17 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

his advice, I get a vibe of a bit of a conman,  I'm probably wrong, dunno, he just seems sort of shifty

He's made a number of bad calls apparently.

http://www.dvdbeaver.com/Gary/gold/martin_armstrong.htm

'We don't want to delve too much in his history, and lauded calls of decades past, but rather some of the more recent predictions that were flat-out wrong or have not come to fruition, yet. I find him vague in a Nostradamus-way and he flip-flops quite often. His calls are often about general, and large, economic events - so he puts himself on the line but these ambitious calls rarely come true.

Facts have to be faced. There's no logic behind these calls. The guy's simply a dart monkey.

latest?cb=20151222214111&path-prefix=blo

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11 minutes ago, afly said:

I can't get exact stats but I will quite easily tip over 2TB per month on average and a rock solid 350Mbps is like air and water to me now.

God bless virgin media.

 

 

Edit to add: BT can apparently offer me 76Mbs ?

Back in my Usenet days I'd tip 1TB+ (on a 17Mbit connection I might add). No more though, I don't bother hoarding stuff when streaming is so easy and cheaper than a decent Usenet provider.

The thing with Virgin is the coverage - huge areas don't have it. Virgin stop a few streets down the hill from my house. I have no idea why as the whole estate was built well before Cable was a thing - why didn't they come all the way through the estate?

Most SME's don't use huge amounts of data - but stability, latency and dependability is the key - which is where Leased Lines come in - and these days those are Fibre. Sure road warriors can use 4/5G but offices ain't going to touch that with a barge pole. An awful lot of leased line providers use BTO for their backhaul. Though TT and Virgin have their own infrastructure now its not always available - where as BT, generally, is.

25 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

It's reached a point that many games are now the best part of 100GB.

I'm an occasional gamer for the past 20 years. I remember when I dipped my toe back in with GTA5 and was shocked at it being a 60GB download!

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@durhamborn
Thanks for your reply, no worries if it takes time;)
 
@Sancho Panza
 
Save me re posting your excellent summery of Forecaster Martin Armstrong, here's my tuppence worth...
 
If Martin Armstrong could accurately predict markets then why oh why sell a newsletter/ OR service ?
 
If you look in to Elliot Wave Theory - the man behind it Ralph Nelson Elliott died BROKE!
 
The only moolah Ralph Nelson Elliott made was from selling the Elliot Wave system!
 
When i got into spread betting over ten years ago i bought a £300.00 home study course by a GURU who claims to make MILLIONS! (i won't mention his name other than VS) If he makes millions then why oh why sell course and HIGH PRICED seminars? Back then I wish i thought of that last sentance before being enticed by the sale letter!
 

Back then i wasn't so Internet savvy, and didn't do my research, if i did you'd discover than this VS guy is a rip-off scam merchant. A simple book would teach ya tread line and moving averages! anyway lesson learnt!:ph34r:

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22 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:
If Martin Armstrong could accurately predict markets then why oh why sell a newsletter/ OR service ?

I guess some genuinely want to work/like what they are doing, but preaching about a get rich scheme? Please... if its so great why are you here talking about it instead of on a beach in the Maldives?

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17 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:
@durhamborn
Thanks for your reply, no worries if it takes time;)
 
@Sancho Panza
 
Save me re posting your excellent summery of Forecaster Martin Armstrong, here's my tuppence worth...
 
If Martin Armstrong could accurately predict markets then why oh why sell a newsletter/ OR service ?
 
If you look in to Elliot Wave Theory - the man behind it Ralph Nelson Elliott died BROKE!
 
The only moolah Ralph Nelson Elliott made was from selling the Elliot Wave system!
 
When i got into spread betting over ten years ago i bought a £300.00 home study course by a GURU who claims to make MILLIONS! (i won't mention his name other than VS) If he makes millions then why oh why sell course and HIGH PRICED seminars? Back then I wish i thought of that last sentance before being enticed by the sale letter!
 

Back then i wasn't so Internet savvy, and didn't do my research, if i did you'd discover than this VS guy is a rip-off scam merchant. A simple book would teach ya tread line and moving averages! anyway lesson learnt!:ph34r:

I think the best term is macro tourists.There are a lot of people who see a destination,but miss the whole getting there bit.Its a bit like standing on one side of the grand canyon and seeing someone stood on the other side.Looking dead at them they look easy to reach,but there is a huge drop down and then up before you reach them.

Nobody understands the markets 100% and nobody has a crystal ball to the future.However there are some things that have provided a road map over the centuries,the main one been the cost of money and the amount of claims on that (the leverage).The rest is then individual cross marker work on what those affects might be and who might gain/lose.If you have a frozen pond and the ice is getting thinner and every hour an extra person starts skating on that pond there comes a point where the ice breaks.The ironic thing is its most likely to happen when the last person decides to have a skate,not when the first one does.

HPI in the UK is a classic example of this.Pretty much everyone who can buy has,and pretty much everyone who can get into BTL has.That ice is crowded,and inflation over wages is making the ice thinner.

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7 hours ago, Errol said:

Surely the future is 5g? 

The problem with any wireless service is that there are only so many UHF frequencies ("The Spectrum") to broadcast over. Different companies own the license to broadcast on these frequencies, for which they pay hundreds of millions, but eventually the speed and spread of wireless internet will be limited by the availability of UHF frequencies (that point may be closer than we think -- already, frequency bands like the 800mhz range, which used to be used for wireless audio devices, has been sold for 4g use.). If too many signals are operating in the same range, you get crosstalk and potentially distortion or increased latency. This is why sometimes it's hard to get mobile signal in a massively crowded area, or when there's a large emergency, or why you can sometimes tune your FM radio to pirate stations.

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5 hours ago, Cosmic Apple said:

 

The thing with Virgin is the coverage - huge areas don't have it. Virgin stop a few streets down the hill from my house. I have no idea why as the whole estate was built well before Cable was a thing - why didn't they come all the way through the estate?

Most Fibre was laid pre Virgin. Many early cable companies borrowed and ran out of cash putting in infrastructure and went bankrupt. Investors lost their shirts. (Take note: having a grip on future technology is no guarantee of a good investment now. *cough* Tesla *cough*)

This put the brakes on for a couple of decades! Build restarted in earnest a couple of years ago.

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21 minutes ago, nayth said:

Most Fibre was laid pre Virgin. Many early cable companies borrowed and ran out of cash putting in infrastructure and went bankrupt. Investors lost their shirts. (Take note: having a grip on future technology is no guarantee of a good investment now. *cough* Tesla *cough*)

This put the brakes on for a couple of decades! Build restarted in earnest a couple of years ago.

Ex Blueyonder area here :) No idea if they were the ones that laid it, I came here in 2001 when I was 18 and before that had been suffering a DAX'd 11mile long line for 4 years. 512k was a blessing in 2001!

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On 26/05/2018 at 09:00, durhamborn said:

Im very tempted to start shorting some of the housebuilders now as i think UK housing has already entered a bear market.Higher priced sales on new build estates are sticking and seeing price falls.Looking back at my old charts this sort of action marked tops in house builders in the past.The only fly in the ointment is HTB now.

Looks like Berkeley is about to roll over 

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10 hours ago, afly said:

I can't get exact stats but I will quite easily tip over 2TB per month on average and a rock solid 350Mbps is like air and water to me now.

God bless virgin media.

 

 

Edit to add: BT can apparently offer me 76Mbs ?

TAX DODGER Richard Branson is registered in a tax haven.. Along with virgin care that has billions in NHS contracts, pays no tax, directly government funded.. too a tax haven.. I would not buy anything from that scumbag.. he is stealing NHS money, costing lives no doubt to make himself even richer.. 

 

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8 minutes ago, macca13 said:

TAX DODGER Richard Branson is registered in a tax haven.. Along with virgin care that has billions in NHS contracts, pays no tax, directly government funded.. too a tax haven.. I would not buy anything from that scumbag.. he is stealing NHS money, costing lives no doubt to make himself even richer.. 

 

He is also destroying the 130 year old central library in Edinburgh, has he not done enough damage already?

On the face of it, this seems an extraordinary betrayal of Carnegie’s intentions and a slap in the face for Edinburgh’s great cultural heritage. The details suggest an even more cynical approach by the Council.

  – Rory Bremner

http://lettherebelightedinburgh.org/

 

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On 30/05/2018 at 20:42, durhamborn said:

Yes these changes are all small beer in the scheme of things,but still add up (i think it is section C only as you say).The biggest change of course will be rising interest rates.Most of the damage to pensions has been done by QE and of course Browns taking away of the dividend tax credit.

However we need to remember the government want them investing and with the pension deficit its likely they will have to allow them a greater return on capital.If thats right id expect some changes from government over the next 18 months.The interesting part is if not it might be the Germans deciding things is DTelecom launch a bid.

I agree with the general idea of liabilities reduction on IR rises but they do appear to have hedged assets against liabilities:

https://www.btpensions.net/assets/uploads/documents/BTPSM-RA-2017-v1-231017-Interactive.pdf (page 27).  Therefore, the downside risk is reduced but the probability of improvement in funding position is also reduced.  In particular, a large proportion of the scheme assets is in bonds (page 5 and a lot more detail later); however, most do appear to be Index-linked gilts (page 27).

Guess the "best" scenario (just not for pensioners) is if IRs shoot up and so does inflation, so that 5% caps on pension increases finally bite (again)

Edited by Bear Hug
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Just now, Bear Hug said:

I agree with the general idea of liabilities reduction on IR rises but they do appear to have hedged assets against liabilities:

https://www.btpensions.net/assets/uploads/documents/BTPSM-RA-2017-v1-231017-Interactive.pdf (page 27).  Therefore, the downside is reduced but the probability of improvement in funding position is also reduced.  In particular, a large proportion of the scheme assets in bonds (page 5 and a lot more detail later); however, most appear to be Index-linked gilts (page 27).

Guess the "best" scenario (just not for pensioners) is if IRs shoot up and so does inflation, so that 5% caps on pension increases finally bite (again)

I think the 5% cap on pension increases is the key point,and one most people forget.We did have a mention of this on another thread and it was a bit difficult to find out the schemes that had this cap (we were looking at public sector i think).If BT have a 5% uplift limit then like you say a few years of inflation at 12% would make a huge difference.Im also not sure if its just deferred pensions that come under the cap,or pensions in payment as well.

I fully expect these sorts of levels of inflation down the road.Global M2 money supply is about 110% of GDP, (its usually about 40/50% through history) so any deflation bringing in fresh QE should push it to even greater extremes.Anyone for a HTB funded shoe box new build?.

Barclays moving lending to manufacturing,transport etc in the north,and cutting back on southern housing.They got the memo.

http://www.bmmagazine.co.uk/news/barclays-launches-500m-boost-to-northern-powerhouse/

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44323693

"Mr Staley said measures might include looking at how big a loan Barclays would be prepared to provide as a percentage of the value of a residential property - the so called loan to value ratio - particularly in London and the South East."

 

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On 31/05/2018 at 10:23, Sancho Panza said:

He's made a number of bad calls apparently.

http://www.dvdbeaver.com/Gary/gold/martin_armstrong.htm ...

 

 
I'll take the challenge : )  Yes no-one is 100% correct and I'm not saying he's infallible, but some of those statements are misconstrued:
 
"April 19th, 2013 - "We elected Weekly Bearish Reversals in both metals with gold closing at 1397.2 and 2304.1. Gold closed also just below the Weekly Break line 1398.6. This is warning that the FAILURE to exceed Friday's 4/19 high intraday, and a penetration of 1310, we are looking at a drop to $1158. Breach that, and we very well may see $907 in 2 weeks." 
No chance. Before he said this Gold had dropped $200 in the month of April, 2013 but it ended about $90 higher after he made the statement and it did not reach or breach $1158 although the following month it came close. Sub $1000 has not occurred even 3 years later."
 
At the beginning of the month Gold was $1600 and on Friday 19 April closed 1395.30.  On that Friday no-one knew what was gonna happen on the Monday - I bet many were tempted to sell or short the market...  His computer Socrates crunched the numbers and warned =  during the next trading week 22-26 April, IF Gold fails to exceed 19 April's high (1420.30 https://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-historical-data) intraday and penetrate below 1310 - THEN YOU will get the drop to $1158 (within the next few weeks or months).  You base your trade on those numbers.
The following Monday Gold opened at 1421 therefore exceeding (not failing) 19th April's intraday high of 1420.30 AND never went below 1310 all week.  This tells you there would be no drop to $1158, nor then onto $907 for that matter.  Gold actually closed the week at 1453.60.  So he never said it would drop to $1158 for sure - ONLY if those numbers were elected, which they weren't.  If they had been elected then you would sell/short and watch it fall to $1158.
His reversals are buy or sell signals - once the market closes below them (a bearish reversal number/ or above them for a bullish reversal number) then you know whether to jump in or out.  
 
This guy has not understood what Armstrong/Socrates is warning.  Even Thorn watched the WEC Reversal and Array workshop and said it was hard to follow. 
 
You look for cycle TIME (given by the Arrays) and the Reversal PRICE (4x Reversal numbers each for: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly, Yearly). If those numbers are not reached on those cyclical TIME tops, then it's not ready and you look forward to the next one... even DB says Cycles can stretch..I guess people read his articles which say things like 'if this is reached then it's up, but if not then it's down' and translate that as 'flip-flopping'?
 
For sub $1000 Gold has to close below a certain number to tell you it's ready to drop..so far it has not.. but it has also not closed above the Monthly Bullish Reversal either to tell you it's about to rally hard...so it stays in a trading range for now..
 
I can't find anything online where he says $100 Oil is here to stay?  
 
Forecaster Martin Armstrong calling for start to a Sovereign debt crisis 2015.75 - he means the 3rd quarter of 2015 but it did not and has not transpired... yet.
"..This 2015.75 turn should be the start of BIG BANG and this should be a market with the low in interest rates that ferments the peak in the bond bubble. ..."
........and the fermentation of the peak of the Bond bubble happened nearly a year later on July 2016 with the peak in price/low in rates for the US 30yr Bond (for now...???!), and the Sovereign Debt crisis is now gaining traction i.e. pension funds failing, taxes increasing to fill the debt hole...
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