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Deflationary collapse and the Reflation Cycle to Come.


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10 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Mail readers are already 'outraged' and 'cutting back'.  ?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5713257/Motorists-outraged-petrol-passes-6-gallon.html

 

Mail jumping on a bandwagon?  Never.... :)

Just been going through the March CPI data, couple of interesting things jumped out at me (all % YOY)

 

Chinese input prices filtering into real economy?

05.3 Household appliances, fitting and repairs 7.3% YOY

05.3.2.9 Other small electric household appliances 16.1%

09.2.1.3 Boats, outboard motors and fitting out of boats 15.3%

05.5.2.2 Miscellaneous small tool accessories 7.9%

 

Oil increasing/Pound decreasing impacts

04.5.3 Liquid fuels 23.0% (this is volatile and then some)

04.5.1 electricity 10%

04.5 Electricity, gas and other fuels 6.2%

 

The ONS doesn't tell you exactly what is in each category, liquid fuels is not exactly descriptive.  However, its much more useful to me in tracking the impact of Pound depreciation than All Services 2.1% and All Goods 2.4%.

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Rather than put my thoughts in other threads about how i see the end of this cycle playing out i thought a thread dedicated to this would be a much better idea.Many other posters here have some great

How convenient.

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11 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Mail readers are already 'outraged' and 'cutting back'.  ?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5713257/Motorists-outraged-petrol-passes-6-gallon.html

4C0E569F00000578-5713257-image-a-15_1525

 

To be fair they'd probably moan if it was free !

Anyway, the price is someway off the maximum of April 2012, which appears to be 142, before inflation adjustment.

That said growth at the moment is anemic, and the increase in oil price may well push us back into recession if the current price is sustained.

That leaves the BOE in a bit of a quandry IMO, because they are starting to lag the US, and Europe keeping their rates low is helping.

If Europe starts to rise then they could be facing raising rates in a recession. Be interesting to see how they explain that one to the masses. Probably by mumbling something about inflation.

 

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38 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

To be fair they'd probably moan if it was free !

Anyway, the price is someway off the maximum of April 2012, which appears to be 142, before inflation adjustment.

That said growth at the moment is anemic, and the increase in oil price may well push us back into recession if the current price is sustained.

That leaves the BOE in a bit of a quandry IMO, because they are starting to lag the US, and Europe keeping their rates low is helping.

If Europe starts to rise then they could be facing raising rates in a recession. Be interesting to see how they explain that one to the masses. Probably by mumbling something about inflation.

 

AFAIK Europe cant raise rates as the ECB by now has bought 40% of EU govt debt.

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7 hours ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

I thought their rule was they could only buy a 1/3 of the debt... Does this mean they have already broken their self-imposed rule? 

Maybe so. Euroland rates cannot move.

I’m too busy watching the DOW and FTSE 100 these days- I’m convinced that Euroland and euro bonds isn’t where the action will be. TLT/IBTL though if the deflation starts to bite... now there’s a coiled spring. 

Meanwhile, trying to figure out which mining stocks might go up and which might not is great. They zigzag a lot!

 

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12 hours ago, Viceroy said:

For those interested, here is 4hr+45mins of Armstrong's Nov 2016 WEC conference, Day 1 : https://vimeo.com/198896912

 

Thanks for the link Viceroy. Watched Martin Armstrong talk for the first half- interesting alright - then his friend came on and discussed reversals but I found it really hard to follow.

So... P/E is no guide because capital will go to the US dollar and DOW to park and stay the hell away from government bonds...?

 

 

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7 hours ago, Thorn said:

Watched Martin Armstrong talk for the first half- interesting alright - then his friend came on and discussed reversals but I found it really hard to follow.

So... P/E is no guide because capital will go to the US dollar and DOW to park and stay the hell away from government bonds...?

Yes. DB also agrees the USD will rise and that US Govt bonds will be terrible in the next cycle. DB thinks they will have one last hurrah in a deflationary crack whereas Armstrong says they've cracked already so steer clear. I personally have no idea..this thread is great to bounce around narratives and theories.
 
The vid is great because his spoken explanations are lucid as opposed to some of his blog articles - but I'm under the impression he writes during the night, and as he states in the vid he can only sleep 3hrs at a time which his hedge fund days conditioned him into.  
 
To understand the 2nd half with Erwin (what a cracking accent) read 'Methods & Methodologies' & watch the 'how to' video links about the arrays, the 1% rule, the reversal system, directional changes etc on his website..once concepts are grasped it becomes much more comprehendible. 
 
The Forecaster documentary about Socrates-forecasting, plus his life background and what he went through in prison are eye opening - https://vimeo.com/ondemand/theforecaster - get out the popcorn
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This from Zero Hedge. If you’re wondering what the trigger will be for the Minsky Moment, maybe it will be Corporate Debt which has to default and let the businesses shrink their operations and staff to deleverage.

725D7753-458D-48EA-A13E-BA25713B51AF.jpeg

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7 hours ago, Thorn said:

This from Zero Hedge. If you’re wondering what the trigger will be for the Minsky Moment, maybe it will be Corporate Debt which has to default and let the businesses shrink their operations and staff to deleverage.

725D7753-458D-48EA-A13E-BA25713B51AF.jpeg

That would suggest they're already in recession or extremely close, whereas many are predicting early 2020, I wonder which is on the money.

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On 11/05/2018 at 10:42, Majorpain said:

Mail jumping on a bandwagon?  Never.... :)

Just been going through the March CPI data, couple of interesting things jumped out at me (all % YOY)

 

Chinese input prices filtering into real economy?

05.3 Household appliances, fitting and repairs 7.3% YOY

05.3.2.9 Other small electric household appliances 16.1%

09.2.1.3 Boats, outboard motors and fitting out of boats 15.3%

05.5.2.2 Miscellaneous small tool accessories 7.9%

 

Oil increasing/Pound decreasing impacts

04.5.3 Liquid fuels 23.0% (this is volatile and then some)

04.5.1 electricity 10%

04.5 Electricity, gas and other fuels 6.2%

 

The ONS doesn't tell you exactly what is in each category, liquid fuels is not exactly descriptive.  However, its much more useful to me in tracking the impact of Pound depreciation than All Services 2.1% and All Goods 2.4%.

Yes very much so and  lot more to come.Couriers are putting up prices,Chinese factories are putting up prices 10%/15% due to RMB/$.

Lucky though that you can pretty much buy anything you want for round 15% of the price on Gumtree or Facebook selling groups.Food and fuel though and the feed into council tax will start hitting.Food prices are going up a lot.

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2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

That would suggest they're already in recession or extremely close, whereas many are predicting early 2020, I wonder which is on the money.

I just don't see how things can keep going for another 20 odd months, I've read the early 2020 thing a few places too, however it feels we're on the cusp of a slow down now. What do others on the thread think 2020 or much sooner

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12 minutes ago, durhamborn said:

Yes very much so and  lot more to come.Couriers are putting up prices,Chinese factories are putting up prices 10%/15% due to RMB/$.

Lucky though that you can pretty much buy anything you want for round 15% of the price on Gumtree or Facebook selling groups.Food and fuel though and the feed into council tax will start hitting.Food prices are going up a lot.

Ive mentioned it before, but ive seen chinese quotes for almost 20 years.

When i first started seeing them it was - Fux they must ve working for free. They were were.

Then it was thats cheap. Hope quality is there. It wasnt.

To, im noticing the prices now, maybe need to sound out non chinese contractors.

To todays - Fuxing hell! Dust down that process plant in Surrey.

All in 18 years.

If Trump, rightly, cintinues with his Fux china mercantilist policies, then theres a lot of stuff coming back.

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2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

That would suggest they're already in recession or extremely close, whereas many are predicting early 2020, I wonder which is on the money.

Theres corporate and theres corporate.

Previously it was companies producing stuff.

This cycle its financials, all the way down.

 

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28 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

I just don't see how things can keep going for another 20 odd months, I've read the early 2020 thing a few places too, however it feels we're on the cusp of a slow down now. What do others on the thread think 2020 or much sooner

Yup, I feel we've reached the tipping point. Anything spouted financially in the media is to subvert the masses while the real players shuffle their cards to prepare for the forthcoming storm.

Mark Carney's TV interview the other day was an absolute joke. (edit can't find it) It was a news reporter bleating on about the 3.1% drop in house prices being a 'gloomy outlook' and Carney saying it was due to the weather.

 

Edited by sideysid
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13 minutes ago, spyguy said:

If Trump, rightly, cintinues with his Fux china mercantilist policies, then theres a lot of stuff coming back.

One of the things I don't understand about China's mercantilism is if they're going for the number one spot then why are they still buying US Treasury bonds?  It doesn't make sense to me for China to keep buying the debt of the country they now seriously aim to supplant. 

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13 minutes ago, Will! said:

One of the things I don't understand about China's mercantilism is if they're going for the number one spot then why are they still buying US Treasury bonds?  It doesn't make sense to me for China to keep buying the debt of the country they now seriously aim to supplant. 

Because theyre dumb Marxists *****s.

An underling might have raised the obvious flaw but was out ranked by someone more senior and dumber.

Id guess tge lesson the Chinese learned from USSR was to embed yourself into the US economy rather than isolate themselves.

It doesnt address the domestic threat as more people have more to lose.

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57 minutes ago, spyguy said:

 

To todays - Fuxing hell! Dust down that process plant in Surrey.

All in 18 years.

If Trump, rightly, cintinues with his Fux china mercantilist policies, then theres a lot of stuff coming back.

Better do it before they build more rabbit hutch estates on the brownfield land...

Wouldn't that be the height of irony, just as the last industrial places throw in the towel and sell to developers :lol:

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1 hour ago, Talking Monkey said:

I just don't see how things can keep going for another 20 odd months, I've read the early 2020 thing a few places too, however it feels we're on the cusp of a slow down now. What do others on the thread think 2020 or much sooner

This November. 

Gut feeling.

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1 hour ago, Will! said:

One of the things I don't understand about China's mercantilism is if they're going for the number one spot then why are they still buying US Treasury bonds?  It doesn't make sense to me for China to keep buying the debt of the country they now seriously aim to supplant. 

I think it’s the idea that you might not like something but it’s better than the alternatives. The goal must be to find somewhere where you hope to get some or all of your money back if there’s a crisis in your own country.

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  • 429 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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