Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Deflationary collapse and the Reflation Cycle to Come.


Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, Thorn said:

Re Harley decreasing sales I think a lot of people ride bicycles now to get their kicks instead of motorbikes too.

DB today it seems the dollar is continuing to grind its way upwards, TLT is still hovering...bit of a coiled spring. The defensives look really good too. 

Silver and miners look to be going up a bit again and gold too maybe because talk of US-China stand-off in the news a bit today.

Meanwhile the trackers are mainly doing well still. I would love the trackers I have to keep rising but I keep thinking of your 1929-style prediction of down in 2 legs from top.

So I've placed stop-losses under them of 21%. Feels a bit daft but its a balance - don't want to lose it if something happens that makes me miss checking daily.

Are the orange flashing lights starting up on your dashboard?

 

Yes very happy with the way things are going,my portfolio is up 14% this year so far,i was aiming for level,so very pleased.I revisited my dollar call today and i still see 86 as possible.95 then 86?.I dont really care now as im positioned when sterling was $1.39,$1.40,$1.41.

It needs to seeing the way margins are being destroyed on my little business.I enjoy seeing how close to the wire its getting though,because i know what that must be doing to other people who have rents,business rates,staff and of course debt to pay.Lots of inflation in the system that cant be passed on.The debt deflation is already underway.Should show up in southern house prices and consumer credit soon.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 6.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Rather than put my thoughts in other threads about how i see the end of this cycle playing out i thought a thread dedicated to this would be a much better idea.Many other posters here have some great

How convenient.

Posted Images

13 minutes ago, durhamborn said:

Yes very happy with the way things are going,my portfolio is up 14% this year so far,i was aiming for level,so very pleased.I revisited my dollar call today and i still see 86 as possible.95 then 86?.I dont really care now as im positioned when sterling was $1.39,$1.40,$1.41.

It needs to seeing the way margins are being destroyed on my little business.I enjoy seeing how close to the wire its getting though,because i know what that must be doing to other people who have rents,business rates,staff and of course debt to pay.Lots of inflation in the system that cant be passed on.The debt deflation is already underway.Should show up in southern house prices and consumer credit soon.

Hi DB the bit bolded what does that mean, does it mean dollar could weaken some then strengthen a fair bit then weaken again

Link to post
Share on other sites

Thar she blows......

Maybe those bank capital buffers might not be so buff when the tide rolls out?

So lower IR's encouraged people to borrow more.....whodda thunk it?

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/05/02/wow-thats-fast-mortgage-rates-jump-to-2011-levels/

' Wow, this was fast. The average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances – $453,100 or less with 20% down) jumped to 4.80% for the week ending April 27, from 4.73% in the prior week, and from 4.66% two weeks ago, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported this morning (chart via Trading Economics?

At 4.80%, the average 30-year fixed rate is now equal to the highest rate since September 2013. And the last time, the rate was higher than 4.80% was in 2011

The big difference between 2010 and now, and between 2008 and now, is that home prices have skyrocketed since then in many markets – by over 50% in some markets, such as Denver, Dallas, or the five-county San Francisco Bay Area, for example, according to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. In other markets, increases have been in the 25% to 40% range. This worked because mortgage rates zigzagged lower over those years, thus keeping mortgage payments on these higher priced homes within reach for enough people. But that ride is ending.

For now, demand for mortgages continues, as homebuyers are trying to make deals before rates rise even further. The MBA’s Purchase Index, which tracks the number of mortgages taken out to purchase a home (as opposed to refis) increased 5% compared to the same week a year ago – after last week’s 11% increase.

A 5% mortgage rate will trim off some homebuyers at the margin but is unlikely to derail demand at this point. The real pain for homebuyers, and the housing market, will likely start closer to 6%. While 6% is still a historically low 30-year fixed-rate, home prices are historically high, and the equation has changed. It’s unlikely to get to 6% in 2018, but next year is a candidate.

In terms of rents, the housing market is veering off in all kinds of directions. In Chicago, asking rents have collapsed by 30%. In New York City, they’re swooning. But they’re soaring in Southern California. And the US average hides all the drama on the ground'

Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Sancho Panza said:

Petro Yuan is in it's infancy but still another long term pressure pushing Yuan higher vs $...

Think harley's decline is more of an age thing.Apparently their biggest customer is 45+ age group.

Young guns buy the decent Japanese bikes,the discerning middle aged biker probably buys BMW and the person looking to create a large hole in their pocket buys an overpriced/overhyper/over here Harley.

I'm no biker though.iirc @Greg Bowman or anyone else who uses motorbike,might be able to enlightenWhen I was a kid Harley were cool.

You're right; I'm personally of the impression that they are toys. If people are maxed out on debt then purchases like that will be the first to go.

I certainly wouldn't buy one to commute on all year round in the UK.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I was in the Lexicon shopping centre in Bracknell. This smoked-glass and stainless-steel glitzy place has been open less than a year and is heavily populated by what I would characterise as "relatively posh" and expensive shops like Fenwick, M&S, and patisserie cafes. Although true there is a Primark.

Went in a shop which think is "Whittards" that only sells high-end (dry) tea and coffee and my well-off shopping companion bought a tin of English Rosebud tea 12 pounds and a metal tea-strainer thing 6 pounds, although it looks more like 99p.  Remember this is Bracknell for goodness sake where at least 50% are on benefits. I am surprised anyone can make a go of this mall right now at the moment, but what's going to happen in any kind of downturn?

Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

I was in the Lexicon shopping centre in Bracknell. This smoked-glass and stainless-steel glitzy place has been open less than a year and is heavily populated by what I would characterise as "relatively posh" and expensive shops like Fenwick, M&S, and patisserie cafes. Although true there is a Primark.

Went in a shop which think is "Whittards" that only sells high-end (dry) tea and coffee and my well-off shopping companion bought a tin of English Rosebud tea 12 pounds and a metal tea-strainer thing 6 pounds, although it looks more like 99p.  Remember this is Bracknell for goodness sake where at least 50% are on benefits. I am surprised anyone can make a go of this mall right now at the moment, but what's going to happen in any kind of downturn?

They can be great investments,but you need to stuff them full of the discounters and buy them from bankrupt sellers.If you get them about £12sqf rents you will suck in people from the surrounding shopping streets.A lot were bought in the mid 2000s and werent active managed,they go under.The ones who understand the space will do ok.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Funn3r said:

I was in the Lexicon shopping centre in Bracknell. This smoked-glass and stainless-steel glitzy place has been open less than a year and is heavily populated by what I would characterise as "relatively posh" and expensive shops like Fenwick, M&S, and patisserie cafes. Although true there is a Primark.

Went in a shop which think is "Whittards" that only sells high-end (dry) tea and coffee and my well-off shopping companion bought a tin of English Rosebud tea 12 pounds and a metal tea-strainer thing 6 pounds, although it looks more like 99p.  Remember this is Bracknell for goodness sake where at least 50% are on benefits. I am surprised anyone can make a go of this mall right now at the moment, but what's going to happen in any kind of downturn?

That`s that mishmash of redundant buildings clubbed together to look like a shopping centre. Step outside of the Matrix and it looks like 100% are on benefits. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Sancho Panza said:

Think harley's decline is more of an age thing.Apparently their biggest customer is 45+ age group.

Young guns buy the decent Japanese bikes,the discerning middle aged biker probably buys BMW and the person looking to create a large hole in their pocket buys an overpriced/overhyper/over here Harley.

I'm no biker though.iirc @Greg Bowman or anyone else who uses motorbike,might be able to enlightenWhen I was a kid Harley were cool.

I like cruisers and used to commute on one for 4 years to Central London every day. 

The quality of Harleys have improved in the last decade. I wouldn't mind one but anything decent is too expensive and cheap Street 750 impressed me with the crappiest gearbox I've ever seen on a new bike. 

I'd take Yamaha Bolt over Sportster as an everyday ride.

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Funn3r said:

I was in the Lexicon shopping centre in Bracknell. This smoked-glass and stainless-steel glitzy place has been open less than a year and is heavily populated by what I would characterise as "relatively posh" and expensive shops like Fenwick, M&S, and patisserie cafes. Although true there is a Primark.

Went in a shop which think is "Whittards" that only sells high-end (dry) tea and coffee and my well-off shopping companion bought a tin of English Rosebud tea 12 pounds and a metal tea-strainer thing 6 pounds, although it looks more like 99p.  Remember this is Bracknell for goodness sake where at least 50% are on benefits. I am surprised anyone can make a go of this mall right now at the moment, but what's going to happen in any kind of downturn?

At least you've got some shops.

Here in Cheshire no sign of a new shop opening since Asda in Nov 2016 (Ironically Sainsbury is 100 yards away). Despite the leasing plan having one exchanged (for over a year) and supposed interest in other units. £80m that cost, M&S was there before. http://baronsquay.co.uk/become-a-retailer/leasing-plan/

Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

This week has seen at least a couple of examples of currencies that appear to have gone into free fall. 

"A couple" is generally considered to be two. Soon to be a threesome if Mark C doesn't go for the "300 bps hike" option.

Edited by Funn3r
fluffed it up
Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry for a dumb and only slightly on topic question, but this seems a good place for it and I know I will get some good answers.

Can any one offer any insights into how the growth of the UK ecomony is calculated? What are the inputs?

Also, is it measured in real terms or £ for £? What impact does inflation have on the figures?

I think we are heading for increased inflation and perhaps recession towards the end of the year. Oil prices are still heading up, much to my surprise.

Although on the other hand, I can see a tightening of consumer credit which ties in the recent figures. About twice a month I run a soft search to see what credit cards are available to me, the list has recently shrunk considerably, despite my credit score going up.

Link to post
Share on other sites

It definitely feels like the consumer era has had its day for now, at least in the macro sense dB etc talks about. 

I know this has been going on for a while and the macro shifts that have so called been baked in have stalled prematurely due to global state intervention etc?   I may have mentioned before that I sometimes watch YouTube videos about dead malls in the US.  Some give a very nostalgic slice of juxtaposition between say the booming 80s and the in places retail wasteland of today. Of course party this trend may have happened with the move to online but still interesting to watch in a slightly voyeuristic way.  One channel called Bright sun films did one on sears the US retail giant I just watched that I thought was rather good.  There is no in depth economic analysis but easy to watch and presented well.  I was stuck by how recently sears had reached an all time high valuation... Think mid naughties or something... There now closer to bankruptcy. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Funn3r said:

I was in the Lexicon shopping centre in Bracknell. This smoked-glass and stainless-steel glitzy place has been open less than a year and is heavily populated by what I would characterise as "relatively posh" and expensive shops like Fenwick, M&S, and patisserie cafes. Although true there is a Primark.

Went in a shop which think is "Whittards" that only sells high-end (dry) tea and coffee and my well-off shopping companion bought a tin of English Rosebud tea 12 pounds and a metal tea-strainer thing 6 pounds, although it looks more like 99p.  Remember this is Bracknell for goodness sake where at least 50% are on benefits. I am surprised anyone can make a go of this mall right now at the moment, but what's going to happen in any kind of downturn?

Used to work in the factory where that dry tea was made. It's a tub full of brown sugar with some perfume added.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Dogtanian said:

It definitely feels like the consumer era has had its day for now, at least in the macro sense dB etc talks about. 

 

What about in Asia where the so called middle class is growing ... those 3 billion or more love to spend to show of their wealth whether it exists or not.

Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, durhamborn said:

Yes very happy with the way things are going,my portfolio is up 14% this year so far,i was aiming for level,so very pleased.I revisited my dollar call today and i still see 86 as possible.95 then 86?.I dont really care now as im positioned when sterling was $1.39,$1.40,$1.41.

It needs to seeing the way margins are being destroyed on my little business.I enjoy seeing how close to the wire its getting though,because i know what that must be doing to other people who have rents,business rates,staff and of course debt to pay.Lots of inflation in the system that cant be passed on.The debt deflation is already underway.Should show up in southern house prices and consumer credit soon.

Nice work DB.  In comparison the return on my total portfolio is down about 1.3%.

Link to post
Share on other sites
22 hours ago, Sancho Panza said:

Young guns buy the decent Japanese bikes,the discerning middle aged biker probably buys BMW and the person looking to create a large hole in their pocket buys an overpriced/overhyper/over here Harley.

I'm no biker though.iirc @Greg Bowman or anyone else who uses motorbike,might be able to enlightenWhen I was a kid Harley were cool.

I have rented a Harley in the U.S.. put my Mrs on the back.. it was amazing.. 

They make allot of noise, drink allot of fuel but are very slow by bike standards.. 

The other problem was cornering,, as soon as you lean the bike over the foot plates hit the ground.. 

As a U.S bike with long straight roads and warm sun it’s amazing.. 

In the U.K. with cold crappy weather, pot holes and roundabouts.. all that shiny metal to polish.. no thanks.. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, TJHooker said:

What about in Asia where the so called middle class is growing ... those 3 billion or more love to spend to show of their wealth whether it exists or not.

Yes very true, and increasingly Africa too?  I'm commenting from a very western centric vista and the importance of the West in leading the way is no doubt on the wane... although still critical?! 

Link to post
Share on other sites

VERY interesting article from Bloomberg suggesting we might be much closer to the inevitable:

Credit Cracks Are Showing If You Know Where to Look

But some Wall Street strategists are focusing on a more alarming data point showing a collapse in a category called “dollar collections.” The index covering that part of the survey — which measures the ability of creditors to collect the money they are owed from their customers — tumbled to 46.7 in April from 59.6 in March, putting it at its lowest level since early 2009, the height of the financial crisis.

-1x-1.thumb.png.36346b7433bf2c7f29e1e39ac3e981ce.png

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-05-03/credit-market-cracks-are-showing-if-you-know-where-to-look

Edited by Barnsey
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

VERY interesting article from Bloomberg suggesting we might be much closer to the inevitable:

Credit Cracks Are Showing If You Know Where to Look

But some Wall Street strategists are focusing on a more alarming data point showing a collapse in a category called “dollar collections.” The index covering that part of the survey — which measures the ability of creditors to collect the money they are owed from their customers — tumbled to 46.7 in April from 59.6 in March, putting it at its lowest level since early 2009, the height of the financial crisis.

-1x-1.thumb.png.36346b7433bf2c7f29e1e39ac3e981ce.png

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-05-03/credit-market-cracks-are-showing-if-you-know-where-to-look

Another 2008 correlation. Consumer credit plummeted in March too.

Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

VERY interesting article from Bloomberg suggesting we might be much closer to the inevitable:

Credit Cracks Are Showing If You Know Where to Look

But some Wall Street strategists are focusing on a more alarming data point showing a collapse in a category called “dollar collections.” The index covering that part of the survey — which measures the ability of creditors to collect the money they are owed from their customers — tumbled to 46.7 in April from 59.6 in March, putting it at its lowest level since early 2009, the height of the financial crisis.

 -1x-1.thumb.png.36346b7433bf2c7f29e1e39ac3e981ce.png

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-05-03/credit-market-cracks-are-showing-if-you-know-where-to-look

It really does have that feeling akin to early summer 2007. A time when i cashed in all my shares. About the 1 decent financial decision ive made in the last decade.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Dogtanian said:

Yes very true, and increasingly Africa too?  I'm commenting from a very western centric vista and the importance of the West in leading the way is no doubt on the wane... although still critical?! 

Yes, so long as the dollar remains the de facto global reserve currency. An exorbitant privilege that Americans have spent forty years abusing. Frankly, it's about time they forfeit it.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.