Deflationary collapse and the Reflation Cycle to Come.

[Thorn]

And anyway. Looks like the $ is on its way slowly upwards... so lots of corporate and national debts will start to cost more... and if consumers can’t spend as much...businesses with thin margins will be in trouble...

its all getting sort of interesting out there.

[durhamborn]

3 hours ago, Pitchfork said:

I think more would buy from UK sellers if the price difference wasn't so great. I'll admit I'm guilty of buying from China.

Is it selfish to buy from China and ultimately lower the standard of living for all of us?

Leaving the EU, tariffs and trade wars, maybe that is the future. Maybe Trump is doing the right thing with his threats of tariffs, don't know if it will work but maybe more countries will take that stance going forward, how else do you compete in a globalised world.

DB - one more Q if I may, so the value of GBP vs CNY may well have a greater impact than GBP v USD, especialy as we move away from oil and the Chinese ecomony expected to become the worlds largest. Any thoughts on that?

Yes,oil (and even more gas) will be one of the biggest gainers in the next cycle.All currency will be going down in value fast and its inflation assets needed.I would never hold Chinese currency.

[Thorn]

Cannot get FCG thanks to this whole KIDS craic.

But looked up the ETF contents and have managed to add a bit of Continental and Anadarko.

[durhamborn]

9 hours ago, TonyJ said:

Yep. i think that too. The $ may now have bottomed and started its ascent

It could of yes,my original target was from 103 was 88 and it did indeed touch 88 as the bottom.However when i run things now it shows 86 or 85 as the likely bottom.

I actually used the dollar call mainly to start buying treasuries with sterling and started buying around $1.39 in a staircase up and iv pretty much got the exposure there i want.So my original target of 88 was hit,but i do see 86 as a maybe.

[Talking Monkey]

11 hours ago, durhamborn said:

Yes,oil (and even more gas) will be one of the biggest gainers in the next cycle.All currency will be going down in value fast and its inflation assets needed.I would never hold Chinese currency.

For oil and gas with the KID thing would getting a selection of shares in companies be the way to go BP, Shell, Centrica or is there a better way to get exposure

[Noallegiance]

2 hours ago, durhamborn said:

It could of yes,my original target was from 103 was 88 and it did indeed touch 88 as the bottom.However when i run things now it shows 86 or 85 as the likely bottom.

I actually used the dollar call mainly to start buying treasuries with sterling and started buying around $1.39 in a staircase up and iv pretty much got the exposure there i want.So my original target of 88 was hit,but i do see 86 as a maybe.

What's the difference between you seeing the $ going up and people like Peter Schiff seeing it tumbling further?

[SillyBilly]

On 21/04/2018 at 10:06 AM, TJHooker said:

 

I'm working a large new pipeline project in the UK, it has 2 welders (1 team), but 200 workers on site passing pieces of paper to each other to back them up, never seen anything like it but it just shows the extent on non jobs in the UK and why the economy is ****'d!

Astonishing isn't it. I'm one of these overpaid pen pushers but happy to admit (privately at least) it is a load of BS. I used to care about making a difference, now just cash the pay cheques and play the game. Milk it for what you can before the ship goes down!

Edited April 22, 2018 by SillyBilly

[leonardratso]

8 minutes ago, SillyBilly said:

Astonishing isn't it. I'm one of these overpaid pen pushers but happy to admit (privately at least) it is a load of BS. I used to care about making a difference, now just cash the pay cheques and play the game. Milk it for what you can before the ship goes down!

this. I was happy and pretty hard working in the past, these days i just pretend and wait for pay day, i got wise a few years back , but i secretly knew all along that its all ****. If i were to ask my dad about hard work, he certainly wouldnt consider anyone today doing any compared to what happened back in his day. No doubt his father would have the same thoughts about his generation.

[TJHooker]

27 minutes ago, SillyBilly said:

Astonishing isn't it. I'm one of these overpaid pen pushers but happy to admit (privately at least) it is a load of BS. I used to care about making a difference, now just cash the pay cheques and play the game. Milk it for what you can before the ship goes down!

Yes i was astonished. I was expecting a small hut and a few men on the job when i arrived not 200!

[durhamborn]

3 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

For oil and gas with the KID thing would getting a selection of shares in companies be the way to go BP, Shell, Centrica or is there a better way to get exposure

Some of the US natural gas companies will be great plays probably,but plenty of time to consider that down the line.The irony is green energy will be growing at a huge clip,yet oil and gas will do very well.

[durhamborn]

3 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

What's the difference between you seeing the $ going up and people like Peter Schiff seeing it tumbling further?

Because all my macro indicators point to a global deflationary credit contraction/bust.In those conditions people will rush to the safest asset in town,US treasuries (and the dollar).My dollar down call had nothing to do with anything other than money flows,interest rates,economic growth etc.It was a very easy call,though every big institution was on the other side of the trade (the wrong side,at least in public). The Fed is taking liquidity from the system.They are stupid,or they know a bit of a panic is needed so money flows back to the dollar.

I agree with Peter that the next cycle will see all Fiat lose value against hard assets,actually by huge amounts,i just see a global bust first.I just cant see us going to inflation in a calm way,cycles dont end like that,given the massive leverage on the system and worse the massive amount of 2nd line derivatives.

Edited April 22, 2018 by durhamborn

[Will!]

Saxo Group Q2 2018 Quarterly Outlook (pdf)

35 pages, but an interesting read I thought.

[durhamborn]

24 minutes ago, Will! said:

Saxo Group Q2 2018 Quarterly Outlook (pdf)

35 pages, but an interesting read I thought.

Very interesting and i agree with a lot of it.Worth a read for everyone.

[Noallegiance]

44 minutes ago, durhamborn said:

Because all my macro indicators point to a global deflationary credit contraction/bust.In those conditions people will rush to the safest asset in town,US treasuries (and the dollar).My dollar down call had nothing to do with anything other than money flows,interest rates,economic growth etc.It was a very easy call,though every big institution was on the other side of the trade (the wrong side,at least in public). The Fed is taking liquidity from the system.They are stupid,or they know a bit of a panic is needed so money flows back to the dollar.

I agree with Peter that the next cycle will see all Fiat lose value against hard assets,actually by huge amounts,i just see a global bust first.I just cant see us going to inflation in a calm way,cycles dont end like that,given the massive leverage on the system and worse the massive amount of 2nd line derivatives.

Interesting, thanks.

[Talking Monkey]

2 hours ago, durhamborn said:

Some of the US natural gas companies will be great plays probably,but plenty of time to consider that down the line.The irony is green energy will be growing at a huge clip,yet oil and gas will do very well.

Thanks DB, you've talked about how when the CBs reflate they'll push green energy as one of the things they will invest into. Just trying to get my head around how oil will do very well even though green energy is growing at a huge clip. 

For exposure to green energy are there any companies or funds that look promising

[durhamborn]

1 minute ago, Talking Monkey said:

Thanks DB, you've talked about how when the CBs reflate they'll push green energy as one of the things they will invest into. Just trying to get my head around how oil will do very well even though green energy is growing at a huge clip. 

For exposure to green energy are there any companies or funds that look promising

Its mainly because the recovery will be industrial and the need for energy will grow faster than green energy production.It might be oils last big run,but its likely to be one of its biggest.I actually like natural gas better for lots of reasons though.As always it will be the back end of the cycle where prices go up very fast,before that they will build more slowly.

[Thorn]

3 hours ago, durhamborn said:

Very interesting and i agree with a lot of it.Worth a read for everyone.

Just read it there. Interesting for sure.

 They say the dollar will weaken and they don’t seem to mention it going up first?

and they prefer Blue-chip bonds over treasuries? 

[Thorn]

3 hours ago, Will! said:

Saxo Group Q2 2018 Quarterly Outlook (pdf)

35 pages, but an interesting read I thought.

Great find thank you Will!

[Majorpain]

Quote

Providing added urgency to the search for an alternative to the USD is the need to devalue the world’s stock of USD-denominated debt – which has only increased by leaps and bounds in the offshore USD system that got global finances in such a pickle back in 2008-09 . Last September, the Bank for International Settlements estimated that there was a net $25 trillion in USD-denominated debts and derivatives in the offshore financial system. The world can ill afford another USD funding mishap, one that has already partially been set in motion by Trump’s corporate tax cuts, which are encouraging US corporations to repatriate hundreds of billions of USD from outside the US and draining liquidity from the offshore USD system. This, possibly combined with the Fed’s quantitative tightening, has seen the worst spike in USD Libor spreads versus the Fed’s official policy rate since the global financial crisis.

One of the more interesting features of the current market is traders borrowing low interest rate currencies to buy USD for the yield, the Hong Kong dollar is fighting the market to keep its peg due to this.  The Euro is also one to watch, possible economic slowdown, low or negative interest rate bonds and printing press jammed on full whilst you can pick up USD treasury bonds with 2-3% yield and a normalising central bank.

Its starting to look like countries which try to fight the fed may get steamrollered when they run out of dollars, this potentially includes the UK if Mark Carney doesnt get with the program fast.

[Talking Monkey]

1 hour ago, durhamborn said:

Its mainly because the recovery will be industrial and the need for energy will grow faster than green energy production.It might be oils last big run,but its likely to be one of its biggest.I actually like natural gas better for lots of reasons though.As always it will be the back end of the cycle where prices go up very fast,before that they will build more slowly.

Thanks DB makes sense. That run up will probably turbo charge even further the investment into green energy.

[chronyx]

4 hours ago, Will! said:

Saxo Group Q2 2018 Quarterly Outlook (pdf)

35 pages, but an interesting read I thought.

Not only interesting but comprehensible.  Probably the first time I've sat and read a document like this without my eyes glazing over and my brain giving in. Nice one Will.

[durhamborn]

3 hours ago, Thorn said:

Just read it there. Interesting for sure.

 They say the dollar will weaken and they don’t seem to mention it going up first?

and they prefer Blue-chip bonds over treasuries? 

They are wrong on that,they are right that its the end of a super-cycle,however they are 7 years early,we have a bust first,then a reflation before the huge collapse.Bonds will be a disaster in the next cycle,but one last leg up in their long bull market yet.

[durhamborn]

3 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

Thanks DB makes sense. That run up will probably turbo charge even further the investment into green energy.

Exactly,and given silver demand will be the big gainer from that green energy at the same time as investment demand is exploding due to inflation and you can see why it might have its biggest bull in history.All the macro stars are coming into line for it.

[durhamborn]

3 hours ago, Majorpain said:

One of the more interesting features of the current market is traders borrowing low interest rate currencies to buy USD for the yield, the Hong Kong dollar is fighting the market to keep its peg due to this.  The Euro is also one to watch, possible economic slowdown, low or negative interest rate bonds and printing press jammed on full whilst you can pick up USD treasury bonds with 2-3% yield and a normalising central bank.

Its starting to look like countries which try to fight the fed may get steamrollered when they run out of dollars, this potentially includes the UK if Mark Carney doesnt get with the program fast.

Exactly whats coming.Italy and Greece will be destroyed with whats ahead.Europe will be saved from collapse by Fed printing,but the end of the next cycle will see no printing due to run away inflation.Thats when Europes experiment will implode i expect.Like you say 2-3% treasury yields wont last in this situation,1% soon.

[Thorn]

8 hours ago, durhamborn said:

Some of the US natural gas companies will be great plays probably,but plenty of time to consider that down the line.The irony is green energy will be growing at a huge clip,yet oil and gas will do very well.

 

23 hours ago, Thorn said:

Cannot get FCG thanks to this whole KIDS craic.

But looked up the ETF contents and have managed to add a bit of Continental and Anadarko.

Instead of getting individual ones I’ve found SPOG- an oil and gas ETF where you can get some of these companies on HL.