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durhamborn

Deflationary collapse and the Reflation Cycle to Come.

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9 minutes ago, Quicken said:

Peer-to-peer lending really emerged post-2007, so it hasn't been tested in an economic crisis. Thoughts on that sector going forward?

Q

Not good.  3% from low risk US 30 yr treasury bonds or 4% from high risk peer to peer lending with no FSCS protection? 

https://www.ft.com/content/c749ba88-16f6-11e8-9376-4a6390addb44

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6 hours ago, Ash4781 said:

A bit of a curve ball at Hammerson Plc. I don’t own shares in them. What’s the plan - get Hammerson , stop the Intu deal, pick them off later. The initial price does seem disruptive. 

“French mall operator Klépierre has approached Hammerson with a £4.9bn bid proposal in an attempt to break up the UK property firm’s agreed acquisition of Intu.

Hammerson shares jumped 24% to 542.4p on news of the proposal, which values the business at 615p a share.

Klépierre is trying to thwart Hammerson’s £3.4bn tie-up with Intu that would create Britain’s biggest property company worth £21bn. The deal, announced in December, would bring together Hammerson’s Bullring shopping centre in Birmingham and Brent Cross in London with Intu’s Trafford centre in Manchester.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/mar/19/french-firm-makes-49bn-offer-to-hammerson-over-intu-acquisition

It's an industry in it's death roll.The flip side of all these retail failures is that it will strengthen the hand of the remaining stores to negotiate substantial rent reductions.

When you look at it holistically,it's quite likely that the profit for retailers is pretty much in the top 20% of footfall at these rental levels.Back of fag packet calcs admittedly but sans rent reductions the figures will stop stacking up in the next year or two for all but the anchor stores.

The impact on credit creation will be substantial if they marked the loans to market.

Wouldn't want to be a small retail CRE LL over the next few years trying to hawk empty sadnwich shops in Leicester for £15k in rent.

4 hours ago, durhamborn said:

Incredible how VC companies can get away with it.Buy a company,get most of your money back by turning equity to debt.Then take all profit as dividends/wages for the directors until it implodes due to lack of investment/interest payments going over free cash flow.Of course most/all of the blame lies with the CBs.Once the cost of money is too low it makes this sort of fraud possible.Its one of the reasons we sucked forward so much consumption and a part of the credit deflation ahead.

As per previous discussion re the Fed raising rates,it can't have escaped their notice that the natural follow on from Zirp was zombie companies destroying price discovery on every level.

Worth noting that Jerome Powell has no formal education in Economics so may not be as prone to the delusions of his predecessors about the cure for GD1 being printed cash.

The US of A are hiking with CPI at 1.8% and we're staying flat depsite CPI at 2.7%.....................Carnage.

 

2 hours ago, pmgdawau said:

it's a once in a lifetime opportunity for the directors

To misquote Forrest Gump

'Stoopid is as stoopid does.'

The CBers are our representatives and they rarely get held to account.You can't blame the private equity guys for helping themselves in some respects.

2 hours ago, Fence said:

Message to CBs - at the very best, you're playing a zero sum game you twats.

If it was a zero sum game I'd be mightily relieved.Future generations will be paying for this profligacy for decade

 

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As someone who came to this thread because I saw the reflation, but didn't 'get it' about deflationary collapse; I found this story quite good.  It seems to be explaining the CB role in what has gone before, and what is to come.  Probably not news to the more enlightened among you, (apart from that the views of this thread are making the news, albeit not a mainstream publication).

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-federal-reserve-cannot-engineer-soft-landing-24980

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47 minutes ago, Quicken said:

It's actually more like 6-7% from P2P (5 year Lending Works to individuals, or Funding Circle to businesses).

I'd rather take a punt on the National Grid divi

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56 minutes ago, Quicken said:

It's actually more like 6-7% from P2P (5 year Lending Works to individuals, or Funding Circle to businesses).

Funding Circles financial accounts are.... interesting.  They may be returning 7% to investors, but they are also making a rather big loss.  Doesn't look sustainable in the long run to me, never mind if recession hits and their credit worthy businesses become rapidly un-creditworthy.

Caveat emptor as always!

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Was just looking at Yamana gold Still just taking notes and learning but one thing i noticed was that pretty much everyone on there management team, directors and owners have been buying a lot of shares over the past few months 

Whats others views on this 

Edited by DoINeedOne

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22 minutes ago, chronyx said:

How did you manage to find that info DoINeedOne?

I been looking at a few different options to check data but i seem to find visual stuff better like when the data is made into graphs and stuff 

On this site if you scroll down you can see insider trading part if shares have been bought or sold over the last year with all the director and management info might need to sign up for free account 

 

https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/materials/nyse-auy/yamana-gold


abit messy but here 

 

Again im still learning and taking notes just found it interesting 

 

yam.png

Edited by DoINeedOne

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Chairman of Barrick (John Thornton) also purchased 300,000 Barrick shares recently.

Two other directors also hiked their stake, Barrick said, including Rob Prichard — who purchased 10,000 shares — and Graham Clow, who acquired 7,500. Pritchard and Clow now own 30,000 and 22,583 shares, respectively.

Link - http://www.mining.com/barrick-chairman-thornton-boosts-ownership-major-share-buy/ 

Edited by Errol

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15 minutes ago, Errol said:

Chairman of Barrick (John Thornton) also purchased 300,000 Barrick shares recently.

Two other directors also hiked their stake, Barrick said, including Rob Prichard — who purchased 10,000 shares — and Graham Clow, who acquired 7,500. Pritchard and Clow now own 30,000 and 22,583 shares, respectively.

Link - http://www.mining.com/barrick-chairman-thornton-boosts-ownership-major-share-buy/ 

Others plus Geo Logic company too

ttt.thumb.png.5f0a7de457b86b2b64dba3490e8601ac.png

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54 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Was just looking at Yamana gold Still just taking notes and learning but one thing i noticed was that pretty much everyone on there management team, directors and owners have been buying a lot of shares over the past few months 

Whats others views on this 

Yamana has great assets and terrible managers.Its a share best suited to traders.Iv had it several times over the last 2 years and been down 30% at times,but selling at an average 25% profit.Iv got a few left in my SIPP that are sat -8% at the moment.

My favourite mid tier is Harmony Gold,but they are already up 35% since i put them on this thread.They are still very cheap,if gold runs up.If it doesnt they could drift lower again.They also have the South African risk.Iv also bought a few Anglogold Ashanti today and last week.In a gold bull id see them much higher.

Gold miners are a very difficult area to invest in.When new to the area its best to stick to small stakes across a few.

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10 hours ago, durhamborn said:

Incredible how VC companies can get away with it.Buy a company,get most of your money back by turning equity to debt.Then take all profit as dividends/wages for the directors until it implodes due to lack of investment/interest payments going over free cash flow.Of course most/all of the blame lies with the CBs.Once the cost of money is too low it makes this sort of fraud possible.Its one of the reasons we sucked forward so much consumption and a part of the credit deflation ahead.

I couldn't agree more. Legal, yes, moral, no.

The rich get richer but this is not without victims. It's a transfer of wealth and when you consider that fundamentally to generate that wealth someone had to work hard, maybe physical hard work, maybe creative. Or someone had to dig stuff out of the ground, or pump oil, work on the line making cars (possibly high end cars for those very rich people to drive).

And no doubt those VCs will go around saying they "created wealth".

I would not mind so much of it was the banks that took the pain. Unfortuntely, it all ultimately and fundamentally works its way down to the lower levels

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2 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

I been looking at a few different options to check data but i seem to find visual stuff better like when the data is made into graphs and stuff 

On this site if you scroll down you can see insider trading part if shares have been bought or sold over the last year with all the director and management info might need to sign up for free account 

 

https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/materials/nyse-auy/yamana-gold


abit messy but here 

 

Again im still learning and taking notes just found it interesting 

 

yam.png

I only have phone atm but thanks. Will look properly when i get home to a real pc

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6 hours ago, Sancho Panza said:

If it was a zero sum game I'd be mightily relieved.Future generations will be paying for this profligacy for decade

"At the very best".  In the context of PE - point being you can't get something for nothing.  Everything has a cost like QE causes the hollowing out of companies by PE.  They cherry pick successes, if any, without proper weighting to the costs.  Costs like you mention.  Many, many others.  Hence the "twit" label.  Suitably down market to pop their fake intellectual arrogance.

Edited by Fence

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7 hours ago, Pitchfork said:

The rich get richer but this is not without victims. It's a transfer of wealth

I would not mind so much of it was the banks that took the pain. Unfortuntely, it all ultimately and fundamentally works its way down to the lower levels

The pensions of these collapsed companies, or there lack of will come back to the tax payers.. either in topups or covering the shortfall.. 

if they don’t qualify for top ups then the fact they will have less disposable income is enough of a loss in tax revenue and personal hardship.. 

The MP’s are ignoring this on purpose as always, I’m sure they are fully supportive of this behaviour.. one of them probably had a 2nd job as a director at Claire’s.. ?

prison is where these people belong playing drop the soap.. unless they enjoy that sort of thing in which case a women’s prison full of ladies of a certain age experiencing the menopause.. that will learn them.. 

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DB,  do you have any target numbers to look out for that would suggest a bust has been skipped and would see you selling your UST holdings? Massive printy printy by the cb's seems like the only indicator but I would think that would still need a strong catalyst that would of likely shook markets. 

Interested to see market reaction today to rate rise and forecast. I'm sure that's all priced in :rolleyes:

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19 hours ago, Sancho Panza said:

It's an industry in it's death roll.The flip side of all these retail failures is that it will strengthen the hand of the remaining stores to negotiate substantial rent reductions.

When you look at it holistically,it's quite likely that the profit for retailers is pretty much in the top 20% of footfall at these rental levels.Back of fag packet calcs admittedly but sans rent reductions the figures will stop stacking up in the next year or two for all but the anchor stores.

The impact on credit creation will be substantial if they marked the loans to market.

Wouldn't want to be a small retail CRE LL over the next few years trying to hawk empty sadnwich shops in Leicester for £15k in rent.

As per previous discussion re the Fed raising rates,it can't have escaped their notice that the natural follow on from Zirp was zombie companies destroying price discovery on every level.

Worth noting that Jerome Powell has no formal education in Economics so may not be as prone to the delusions of his predecessors about the cure for GD1 being printed cash.

The US of A are hiking with CPI at 1.8% and we're staying flat depsite CPI at 2.7%.....................Carnage.

 

To misquote Forrest Gump

'Stoopid is as stoopid does.'

The CBers are our representatives and they rarely get held to account.You can't blame the private equity guys for helping themselves in some respects.

If it was a zero sum game I'd be mightily relieved.Future generations will be paying for this profligacy for decade

 

The Carpet Right shareholder loan update today has interesting words re store closures - essentially closing stores will have little effect on customer experience. I think that captures the mood quite well. Their empty stores are not necessarily all due to the internet as other businesses but it is the same result.

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20 hours ago, Bricks n' mortar said:

As someone who came to this thread because I saw the reflation, but didn't 'get it' about deflationary collapse; I found this story quite good.  It seems to be explaining the CB role in what has gone before, and what is to come.  Probably not news to the more enlightened among you, (apart from that the views of this thread are making the news, albeit not a mainstream publication).

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-federal-reserve-cannot-engineer-soft-landing-24980

That's a super find and succinctly states where we are-this is a Central Bank crisis.

From the article.Highlights are mine.

' They(the Fed) believe that by pulling levers and twisting dials in just the right combination, interest rates will gradually rise, the Fed’s so-called “quantitative easing” program will slowly unwind, and more than $4 trillion in “out of thin air money” created since 2009 will be “retired”—without triggering a recession.

The truth is that when the Fed cuts interest rates or otherwise eases monetary policy, it is not "stimulating" the economy, as is claimed. What the Fed really is doing is distorting the two most important sources of information in the economy: the price of money (i.e., interest rates) and the supply (i.e., quantity) of money.

BUT, when the monetary system is manipulated, i.e., when it is controlled by the Federal Reserve and other central banks—including the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank and the People’s Bank of China—the price signals become warped. As a result, more and more false information (“fake news”) is forced into the economic system. The price of money, and therefore all other prices, which are a derivative of the price of money, are not real. They do not accurately reflect supply and demand.

When interest rates are artificially low, as has been the case since 2009, investors and entrepreneurs are incentivized to take more risk than they otherwise would have taken. Businesses and consumers load up on debt that they otherwise could not afford and will not be able to pay back when rates rise. Corporations borrow hundreds of billions to buy back stock, warping their capital structures (i.e., increasing their ratio of debt to equity) and setting themselves up for defaults, bankruptcies and rapidly falling share prices when rates rise. Lenders extend credit to borrowers whom they otherwise would avoid, such as subprime auto loan borrowers, subprime real estate borrowers and subprime credit card borrowers—running the risk of systemic bank failure when rates rise.

This cycle has a name. Keynesians, who worship at the central bank altar, call it the "business cycle." They even warp the language to blame it on “business,” instead of blaming it on the real culprit: the Federal Reserve and other central banks.

Would the “business cycle” exist without the Fed or central banks? Indeed, there were “booms and busts” before the Fed. But they were far less severe and were more short-lived. In effect, free market pricing corrected the excesses faster and with less economic and human damage than the Federal Reserve.

As bad as the Fed’s overall track record has been, its manipulation of interest rates and the money supply has grown worse by the decade, largely as a result of the end of “anchored” money in August 1971. This was because money was no longer tied to a commodity like gold, so the Fed could now create money “out of thin air.”

For the past four decades, the Fed has attempted—in dark comedic fashion—to manage its own mismanagement. It has invented even more levers and dials to use in a never-ending attempt to fine tune what the Federal Reserve Chairman, his or her fellow board members and their collective staffs of hundreds of Keynesian economists cannot even begin to understand. More specifically, the Fed and its minions have not allowed each successive, and ever worsening, boom and bust cycle, which they created in the first place, to run its course. Instead, the Fed, lurching from crisis to even worse crisis, has responded to every downturn with even lower interest rates and even more "easy money" than before.

The Fed's response to the emerging markets crises of 1997–98 fueled the dot-com boom and its demise. The Fed’s response to that bust from 1999 to 2000 and its related recession enabled the 2008 housing bubble, which was encouraged by Congress for political reasons, and the Global Financial Crisis of 2009 that followed. The Fed’s response to that crisis, its coordination with central banks around the world to lower rates—even into negative territory in Europe and Japan—and print unprecedented amounts of fiat money, has created the biggest and most pervasive bubble the world ever has seen. Total world debt now exceeds $233 trillion, and the debt to “world GDP” ratio is 318 percent, down just slightly since hitting 321 percent in Q3 of 2016, the largest ratio in human history.

“Soft landing” coming? Do not bet on it.'

'

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21 hours ago, Bricks n' mortar said:

As someone who came to this thread because I saw the reflation, but didn't 'get it' about deflationary collapse; I found this story quite good.  It seems to be explaining the CB role in what has gone before, and what is to come.  Probably not news to the more enlightened among you, (apart from that the views of this thread are making the news, albeit not a mainstream publication).

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-federal-reserve-cannot-engineer-soft-landing-24980

Sorry to double tap you but that piece made me think of the following Jim Rickards speech where from 33 mins he outlines points made previously in this thread about the Fed's inability to generate inflation depsite all the printing due to the assumption that velocity was a constant.Worth a watch in it's entirety but definitely from 33 minutes

 

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1 hour ago, Sancho Panza said:

Sorry to double tap you but that piece made me think of the following Jim Rickards speech where from 33 mins he outlines points made previously in this thread about the Fed's inability to generate inflation depsite all the printing due to the assumption that velocity was a constant.Worth a watch in it's entirety but definitely from 33 minutes.

Nice one guys.  What I've been saying so long.  At least until V goes up!  The trick is to work out the triggers, prepare before hand, and "brace, brace, brace" 'cause when it goes, it goes!

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