Deflationary collapse and the Reflation Cycle to Come.

[Viceroy]

3 hours ago, Sancho Panza said:

A safe haven isn't Boeing at $352 and Goldman at $227.

I questioned this Armstong thesis earlier in the thread and never received a satisfactory answer-ie how can you recomend a price weighted index with variable selection criteria as a safe haven.

He says a surge in the DOW is indicative of non-US foreign funds buying blue chip big names or 'trophies' as a currency play and safe haven.  He equates it back to the 80s when the Japanese splurged their money - instead of investing in $100,000 houses in the US (NASDAQ), they bought the Rockefeller Centre (DOW).  

 

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/stock-indicies/sp-500/the-dow-v-sp500-v-nasdaq-whats-the-difference/The Dow Jones Industrials is the “big” money. You will notice that this index leads the way. It is the first out of a key low because it is typically the foreign capital that comes in based on currency. You will also notice it tend to top out first because the big money tends to start to pull out first also due to currency.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/pe-ratio-mania-v-panic/you have to look at this, not as a mania of speculative fever, but as a panic in government with a collapse in confidence. That is when money just seeks safety; not profit. A mania is a speculative boom where profit is the motive. What we face is the opposite. When capital is just trying to break even, the P/E Ratio rises to historical highs. Above is the P/E Ratio on the S&P 500 since the 2007 high. It rose to over 120 during the crash.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/value-investing-good-or-bad/ (2016 article when DOW was 16,500) We still see the Dow at the 23,000 and exceeding that area with the potential to reach 40,000 remains viable for 2020-2021. You must understand, however, for that to unfold confidence must collapse in government.

[Saving For a Space Ship]

2 hours ago, Viceroy said:

He says a surge in the DOW is indicative of non-US foreign funds buying blue chip big names or 'trophies' as a currency play and safe haven.  He equates it back to the 80s when the Japanese splurged their money - instead of investing in $100,000 houses in the US (NASDAQ), they bought the Rockefeller Centre (DOW).  

 

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/stock-indicies/sp-500/the-dow-v-sp500-v-nasdaq-whats-the-difference/The Dow Jones Industrials is the “big” money. You will notice that this index leads the way. It is the first out of a key low because it is typically the foreign capital that comes in based on currency. You will also notice it tend to top out first because the big money tends to start to pull out first also due to currency.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/pe-ratio-mania-v-panic/you have to look at this, not as a mania of speculative fever, but as a panic in government with a collapse in confidence. That is when money just seeks safety; not profit. A mania is a speculative boom where profit is the motive. What we face is the opposite. When capital is just trying to break even, the P/E Ratio rises to historical highs. Above is the P/E Ratio on the S&P 500 since the 2007 high. It rose to over 120 during the crash.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/value-investing-good-or-bad/ (2016 article when DOW was 16,500) We still see the Dow at the 23,000 and exceeding that area with the potential to reach 40,000 remains viable for 2020-2021. You must understand, however, for that to unfold confidence must collapse in government.

This is the same guy right ? 

Quote

Martin A. Armstrong, Ex-Adviser Out of Jail After 11 Years, Including 7 for Contempt  

Martin A. Armstrong, who prosecutors accused of running a $3 billion Ponzi scheme, is finally out of jail after 11 years, including a possible record seven years for contempt of court in a dispute over gold and antiquities.

https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/ex-adviser-out-of-jail-after-11-years-including-7-for-contempt/

 

[hurlerontheditch]

Quote

Im very tempted to start shorting some of the housebuilders now as i think UK housing has already entered a bear market.Higher priced sales on new build estates are sticking and seeing price falls.Looking back at my old charts this sort of action marked tops in house builders in the past.The only fly in the ointment is HTB now

 

Shortage of House Bricks

[durhamborn]

@Sancho Panza I get the data from my friend,who gets it from his ex apprentice who is now at JPMorgan and involved in their silver warehouse inventory.I think you can buy a lot of it,but its in the tens of grands a year for a subscription.

For gold, commercial traders long,commercial traders net short,retail money (dumb) and sentiment are in a perfect position for a trend reversal.If we do get this i think the $1550 area might be in reach.There is some very interesting data in there as well about gold available for delivery on the COMEX and its a tiny amount,about 9 tonnes.That says 95% of the holders arent prepared to sell at these prices.Of course that can change,but its the lowest iv ever seen in 20 years.

On silver dumb money is short,but commercial traders are moving to short positions as well.That wave structure still looks slightly corrective,so silver may need to make a new low,just below $16 maybe..I still see a chance of the GDX hitting around the $21 level,then im very bullish on the miners.The complex below the big boys is very beaten up and its actually looking very similar to the 70s.Up early,then a bear,then parabolic.

I dont really bother with this sort of thing for trading calls,but i do like to build up a road map.

 

[durhamborn]

8 hours ago, Sancho Panza said:

Even for a BT bear (no offence) there comes a point where it's too cheap.I haven't got there yet but under £2 they're very interesing indeed.

I bought around £2.04 SP.I dont like the debt,but government will make investing in fibre better for them going forward.I also ran a few points in a reflation with rates going up on their pension deficit,their debt interest and the value of their depreciation v cash flow and i think net free cash flow could double in a reflation hitting around £5.5 billion or even £7 billion if they dropped CAPEX.Without the debt they would be very cheap.However debt will be inflated away in the next cycle if you have the cash flow to stay in business,they have (as do VOD).The pension deficit is a big worry.Getting it moved over to CPI increases and making redundant as many staff on the final salary section as possible in the job cuts would help.

[Thorn]

The valuations should revert to mean Sancho Panza but the wealth preservation angle could lead foreign capital to seek safety - parking capital.

I thought Italian bonds would just keep sinking but seem up and US treasuries down today. 

Edited May 30, 2018 by Thorn

[Paul77]

3 hours ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

This is the same guy right ? 

Nice find, thanks!

[nayth]

2 hours ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

This is the same guy right ? 

 

They do bear a striking resemblance!... I suppose everyone deserves a second chance, right? Or maybe it was just a platform to launch a blogging career. There's no such thing as bad publicity and all that! ?

[leonardratso]

Its him, if you go thru his archives he does talk of his prison time.

Not so much when bubba got him in the showers, more about the actual crime he was supposed to have committed and how they wanted his prediction algos and code etc. 

I used to follow his ramblings, but just can be rs'd anymore, theres quite a bit of vague 'we could do this or we could do that' which is fine really since who the hell knows. I have no opinion either way. pretty vacant.

[Errol]

In Gold we Trust 2018 - full 230 page report on gold:

http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2018/05/In-Gold-we-Trust-2018-Extended-version-english.pdf

 

 

- For those who aren't aware, the 'In Gold we Trust' report is almost the leading research document of its kind in the industry. Been going for 10+ years now and very much worth reading.

[spyguy]

12 hours ago, Sancho Panza said:

Even for a BT bear (no offence) there comes a point where it's too cheap.I haven't got there yet but under £2 they're very interesing indeed.

BT's a mortality play.

Privatised in 1982 - 36 years ago

A 20yo grad then, on almost civil service like pension and terms,  will be 56, 4 years from retirement.

Once the last lot of expensive (and useless) middle managers/age based career based progression are out and they can hire n fire.

Mind you, BT have never shown any aptitude of running a good company.

Maybe should be sutdown and sold fro scrap?

[leonardratso]

1 hour ago, spyguy said:

BT's a mortality play.

Privatised in 1982 - 36 years ago

A 20yo grad then, on almost civil service like pension and terms,  will be 56, 4 years from retirement.

Once the last lot of expensive (and useless) middle managers/age based career based progression are out and they can hire n fire.

Mind you, BT have never shown any aptitude of running a good company.

Maybe should be sutdown and sold fro scrap?

like the eternal zombie, theyve always been there, even when they were part of the GPO with their yellow comma vans that looked like moon buggies. Terrible website, crappy service, expensive plans, they are the british gas of the telecoms sector. Massive owned antique infrastructure was probably the only reason they are are around today, the rentiers of the great british empire.

[durhamborn]

20 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

like the eternal zombie, theyve always been there, even when they were part of the GPO with their yellow comma vans that looked like moon buggies. Terrible website, crappy service, expensive plans, they are the british gas of the telecoms sector. Massive owned antique infrastructure was probably the only reason they are are around today, the rentiers of the great british empire.

EBITDA of nearly £8 billion when badly ran says a lot for how much that infrastructure is worth.The key will be can they ship out all the dead wood managers (almost everyone at BT is a manager) and get fiber-optic past a big percentage of the country before that profit turns lower.The new chairman is one of the best there is.There is no doubt he will know the problems,and very likely he will be happy to swing the knife,given he also bought £1million of shares around the £2.45 area.

Depreciation costs compared to cash flow are the keys to these type of companies.A reflation helps them a lot.A cable to 200 houses depreciating at say £10k a year on investment and income goes from £12k to £13k feeds straight to the free cash flow.Of course a lot depends on how much fiber they get laid before costs start to move much higher.

[Talking Monkey]

6 hours ago, leonardratso said:

Its him, if you go thru his archives he does talk of his prison time.

Not so much when bubba got him in the showers, more about the actual crime he was supposed to have committed and how they wanted his prediction algos and code etc. 

I used to follow his ramblings, but just can be rs'd anymore, theres quite a bit of vague 'we could do this or we could do that' which is fine really since who the hell knows. I have no opinion either way. pretty vacant.

I did a bit of youtubing and that stuff about his algos and codes, the big investment banks have got literally armies of quants and billions in tech, to say he has coded up this model that the big boys want seems too far fetched. And he talks about how all the governments and large corporates want his advice, I get a vibe of a bit of a conman,  I'm probably wrong, dunno, he just seems sort of shifty

[Bear Hug]

10 hours ago, durhamborn said:

The pension deficit is a big worry.Getting it moved over to CPI increases and making redundant as many staff on the final salary section as possible in the job cuts would help.

A couple of points here (all based on publicly available but not necessarily up to date information):

CPI switch.  Looking at some old documents  in https://www.btplc.com/Sharesandperformance/Presentations/downloads/BTpensionteach-in.pdf on BTPlc website suggests only ~ 20% of liabilities linked to RPI increases (page 7 shows that section C has RPI increase and page 6 estimates section C at ~20%  overall liability).

Assuming ~1% gap CPI to RPI, around 15 years of payments in retirement and ~£60b liability from the latest (2017 valuation), suggests a saving of switching from RPI to CPI of (1.01 ^ 15 - 1) * 0.2 * 60 ~ £2b

This is tiny compared to overall liability, so I would expect any good or bad news on appeal to have exaggerated impact on its share price:

https://www.prospect.org.uk/news/id/2018/March/29/October-date-BT-appeal-over-High-Court-ruling-on-pensions-indexation

I also understand that BT DB scheme has been closed to future accrual recently

[harp]

4 hours ago, durhamborn said:

EBITDA of nearly £8 billion when badly ran says a lot for how much that infrastructure is worth.The key will be can they ship out all the dead wood managers (almost everyone at BT is a manager) and get fiber-optic past a big percentage of the country before that profit turns lower.The new chairman is one of the best there is.There is no doubt he will know the problems,and very likely he will be happy to swing the knife,given he also bought £1million of shares around the £2.45 area.

Depreciation costs compared to cash flow are the keys to these type of companies.A reflation helps them a lot.A cable to 200 houses depreciating at say £10k a year on investment and income goes from £12k to £13k feeds straight to the free cash flow.Of course a lot depends on how much fiber they get laid before costs start to move much higher.

Surely the future is 5g? All this expense of laying cable is on the way out. I've just got rid of my landline phone/broadband as it's not needed anymore. 4g and a 9gb from Giffgaff for £20 a month suits me perfectly. 

[Cosmic Apple]

7 minutes ago, harp said:

Surely the future is 5g? All this expense of laying cable is on the way out. I've just got rid of my landline phone/broadband as it's not needed anymore. 4g and a 9gb from Giffgaff for £20 a month suits me perfectly. 

Nope, you need a lot more than 9GB if you are streaming Amazon/Netflix/Youtube (only 2 of us in this house, but we regularly use 50GB+). More and more content is going to be delivered via the internet - TV/Satellite is dead (see Sky's move to provide Sky without the dish!) Games too, 5G is too high latency. Outside of the consumer sector 5G isn't going to get anywhere in the SME+ commercial space - where reliability, low latency and SLAs are king.

Edit: I'm not rubbishing 5G, it has its place just like Fibre optic networks. I'm a VOD LTBH.

Edited May 30, 2018 by Cosmic Apple

[harp]

1 minute ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Nope, you need a lot more than 9GB if you are streaming Amazon/Netflix/Youtube (only 2 of us in this house, but we regularly use 50GB+). More and more content is going to be delivered via the internet - TV/Satellite is dead (see Sky's move to provide Sky without the dish!) Games too, 5G is too high latency. Outside of the consumer sector 5G isn't going to get anywhere in the SME+ commercial space - where reliability, low latency and SLAs are king.

Cheers. Fair one!

[Dogtanian]

I was thinking the same as @harp.  At least in terms of it being increasingly over the air... Definitely cables and lots of data needed for streaming and such though.  And average size of all this data is generally increasing with 4k etc.  But still feel that 5g and onwards they'll be a trend with more share of content consumed via mobile.

[durhamborn]

31 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

A couple of points here (all based on publicly available but not necessarily up to date information):

CPI switch.  Looking at some old documents  in https://www.btplc.com/Sharesandperformance/Presentations/downloads/BTpensionteach-in.pdf on BTPlc website suggests only ~ 20% of liabilities linked to RPI increases (page 7 shows that section C has RPI increase and page 6 estimates section C at ~20%  overall liability).

Assuming ~1% gap CPI to RPI, around 15 years of payments in retirement and ~£60b liability from the latest (2017 valuation), suggests a saving of switching from RPI to CPI of (1.01 ^ 15 - 1) * 0.2 * 60 ~ £2b

This is tiny compared to overall liability, so I would expect any good or bad news on appeal to have exaggerated impact on its share price:

https://www.prospect.org.uk/news/id/2018/March/29/October-date-BT-appeal-over-High-Court-ruling-on-pensions-indexation

I also understand that BT DB scheme has been closed to future accrual recently

Yes these changes are all small beer in the scheme of things,but still add up (i think it is section C only as you say).The biggest change of course will be rising interest rates.Most of the damage to pensions has been done by QE and of course Browns taking away of the dividend tax credit.

However we need to remember the government want them investing and with the pension deficit its likely they will have to allow them a greater return on capital.If thats right id expect some changes from government over the next 18 months.The interesting part is if not it might be the Germans deciding things is DTelecom launch a bid.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

Just joined this forum, been following the forum ..for a couple of years and must say really hooked on ya thread durhamborn! its just EXCELLENT! With some canny contributors to boot!

 

About ten years ago i got into trading well via spread betting, i got obsessed with this and proceeded to read 70 or so books on the subject, (books were free as there a good library where i lived at the time) anyways made some money BUT ..then lost it and more!

 

DB, when you say that this type of trading isn't for most folks you are CORRECT! So i jacked it in, however I've always held some stock in the old paper certs way, sold em' in 2007 ...cos had a feeling it was going to crash ALONG with the housing market, as we all know now ... and within 18 months everything started going north again!

 

thing is i never bought me old stocks back cos was hoping to buy a cheap house, oh bugger! This is another reason i like this thread so much - looks like we are going to get (hopefully) a ONCE-IN-A-LIFE chance to clean up!

 

This is just to say to YOU durhamborn THANK YOU for this thread and the other canny contributors - its a freaking GOLD mine in its self! I read through ALL 270 pages and taken notes, and i can tell ya I've learnt more here than those 70 odd books!

 

I also like your posts regarding reduced price food, SNAP! I go down to my Tesco's on me push-bike with a big cardboard box on the rack ... I don't bother with the car cos of petrol costs...

 

Say DB, how long have you been getting the reduced priced food - by this i mean the real CHEAP reduced food like 10% of the full price? Cos i only cotton on to this about 4 years ago...BTW even named my user name ...Yellow_Reduced_Sticker haha!

 

[durhamborn]

1 minute ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Just joined this forum, been following the forum ..for a couple of years and must say really hooked on ya thread durhamborn! its just EXCELLENT! With some canny contributors to boot!

 

About ten years ago i got into trading well via spread betting, i got obsessed with this and proceeded to read 70 or so books on the subject, (books were free as there a good library where i lived at the time) anyways made some money BUT ..then lost it and more!

 

DB, when you say that this type of trading isn't for most folks you are CORRECT! So i jacked it in, however I've always held some stock in the old paper certs way, sold em' in 2007 ...cos had a feeling it was going to crash ALONG with the housing market, as we all know now ... and within 18 months everything started going north again!

 

thing is i never bought me old stocks back cos was hoping to buy a cheap house, oh bugger! This is another reason i like this thread so much - looks like we are going to get (hopefully) a ONCE-IN-A-LIFE chance to clean up!

 

This is just to say to YOU durhamborn THANK YOU for this thread and the other canny contributors - its a freaking GOLD mine in its self! I read through ALL 270 pages and taken notes, and i can tell ya I've learnt more here than those 70 odd books!

 

I also like your posts regarding reduced price food, SNAP! I go down to my Tesco's on me push-bike with a big cardboard box on the rack ... I don't bother with the car cos of petrol costs...

 

Say DB, how long have you been getting the reduced priced food - by this i mean the real CHEAP reduced food like 10% of the full price? Cos i only cotton on to this about 4 years ago...BTW even named my user name ...Yellow_Reduced_Sticker haha!

 

Im sorry if it takes time to reply as my posts have to go through a moderator now,im not sure why,perhaps the site is uneasy about people making investment choices based on things here.If so that is understandable,so perhaps its best to keep things more general and avoid specific trading calls.

Iv actually spent about 15 years learning to be as frugal as possible.I saw a long time ago how the system was heading to a point where most people would be working simply to pay debts and for the benefit bill.I figured being free of such things was getting a small earned income (now self employed),getting an investment income and cutting expenses as low as possible (without living like a victorian urchin).I learned to cook and can now pretty much make a very healthy tasty meal out of anything and so 90% of our food bill goes on food at 25% or less of the price.Im lucky though in that i can go to several big and small stores within half a mile of my house,so no fuel costs in doing it.Gumtree and Facebook groups are also perfect for buying anything else needed for the home.Peanuts for pretty much anything you need.(a small van helps here).

What is very easy to spot now is just how much food is going up in price as well.Another screw turning hard against the highly leveraged.

[Viceroy]

3 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

I did a bit of youtubing and that stuff about his algos and codes, the big investment banks have got literally armies of quants and billions in tech, to say he has coded up this model that the big boys want seems too far fetched. And he talks about how all the governments and large corporates want his advice, I get a vibe of a bit of a conman,  I'm probably wrong, dunno, he just seems sort of shifty

DYOR as they say : ) If you're digging deeper watch the documentary made about his life https://vimeo.com/ondemand/theforecaster

 

[Sancho Panza]

13 hours ago, durhamborn said:

@Sancho Panza I get the data from my friend,who gets it from his ex apprentice who is now at JPMorgan and involved in their silver warehouse inventory.I think you can buy a lot of it,but its in the tens of grands a year for a subscription.

For gold, commercial traders long,commercial traders net short,retail money (dumb) and sentiment are in a perfect position for a trend reversal.If we do get this i think the $1550 area might be in reach.There is some very interesting data in there as well about gold available for delivery on the COMEX and its a tiny amount,about 9 tonnes.That says 95% of the holders arent prepared to sell at these prices.Of course that can change,but its the lowest iv ever seen in 20 years.

On silver dumb money is short,but commercial traders are moving to short positions as well.That wave structure still looks slightly corrective,so silver may need to make a new low,just below $16 maybe..I still see a chance of the GDX hitting around the $21 level,then im very bullish on the miners.The complex below the big boys is very beaten up and its actually looking very similar to the 70s.Up early,then a bear,then parabolic.

I dont really bother with this sort of thing for trading calls,but i do like to build up a road map.

 

I had a feeling it was pretty Gucci data.Most of my trades-even the short stuff- are relativel medium term at minimum.It's the yoyos that kill returns,I was just intrigued as normally positioning yourself opposite to retial money isn't a bad strategy.(even if you're retail yourself...)

13 hours ago, durhamborn said:

I bought around £2.04 SP.I dont like the debt,but government will make investing in fibre better for them going forward.I also ran a few points in a reflation with rates going up on their pension deficit,their debt interest and the value of their depreciation v cash flow and i think net free cash flow could double in a reflation hitting around £5.5 billion or even £7 billion if they dropped CAPEX.Without the debt they would be very cheap.However debt will be inflated away in the next cycle if you have the cash flow to stay in business,they have (as do VOD).The pension deficit is a big worry.Getting it moved over to CPI increases and making redundant as many staff on the final salary section as possible in the job cuts would help.

Their chart is still in a tight downtrend-I'm not 100% charts at all and think a lot of the stuff talked about various indcators is uter tripe,but the reality is that sometimes -particualrly when the downward/upward trend has been strong,they are a useful tool

12 hours ago, Paul77 said:

 

3 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

A couple of points here (all based on publicly available but not necessarily up to date information):

CPI switch.  Looking at some old documents  in https://www.btplc.com/Sharesandperformance/Presentations/downloads/BTpensionteach-in.pdf on BTPlc website suggests only ~ 20% of liabilities linked to RPI increases (page 7 shows that section C has RPI increase and page 6 estimates section C at ~20%  overall liability).

Assuming ~1% gap CPI to RPI, around 15 years of payments in retirement and ~£60b liability from the latest (2017 valuation), suggests a saving of switching from RPI to CPI of (1.01 ^ 15 - 1) * 0.2 * 60 ~ £2b

This is tiny compared to overall liability, so I would expect any good or bad news on appeal to have exaggerated impact on its share price:

https://www.prospect.org.uk/news/id/2018/March/29/October-date-BT-appeal-over-High-Court-ruling-on-pensions-indexation

I also understand that BT DB scheme has been closed to future accrual recently

BT have been shrinking staffwise for years since the mid 80's.Crucially,they generate lots of cash .At soem point -how can I out this politely-their demogrpahic problems will ease.

3/1/18

https://www.jltemployeebenefits.com/our-insights/publications/ftse-reports/dec-2017-ftse-100-and-their-pension-disclosures

'There are a significant number of FTSE 100 companies where the pension scheme represents a material risk to the business. 11 FTSE 100 companies have total disclosed pension liabilities greater than their equity market value. For International Airlines Group, BT and Sainsbury total disclosed pension liabilities are around double their equity market value.'

Edited May 30, 2018 by Sancho Panza

[Sancho Panza]

4 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

I did a bit of youtubing and that stuff about his algos and codes, the big investment banks have got literally armies of quants and billions in tech, to say he has coded up this model that the big boys want seems too far fetched. And he talks about how all the governments and large corporates want his advice, I get a vibe of a bit of a conman,  I'm probably wrong, dunno, he just seems sort of shifty

He's made a number of bad calls apparently.

http://www.dvdbeaver.com/Gary/gold/martin_armstrong.htm

'We don't want to delve too much in his history, and lauded calls of decades past, but rather some of the more recent predictions that were flat-out wrong or have not come to fruition, yet. I find him vague in a Nostradamus-way and he flip-flops quite often. His calls are often about general, and large, economic events - so he puts himself on the line but these ambitious calls rarely come true.

 

Ex. In 2013 he predicted the DOW would double by 2015. At the time of the prediction the DOW was approximately 14,000 - today (April 2016), it is at/near its high of 17,737.00. In 2014 he stated that $100+ crude oil was here to stay. Crude is now trading below $40. So both of these are way off base. Let's take a look at some of his other miscue predictions:

 

Forecaster Martin Armstrong calling for start to a Sovereign debt crisis 2015.75 - he means the 3rd quarter of 2015 but it did not and has not transpired... yet.

 

August 25, 2011 - Martin Armstrong: Gold to Correct for 1-3 Quarters Before Resuming Uptrend - Gold was $1740 on that date, did correct lower - but never resumed, eclipsed or equaled that high 1-3 quarters after - nor has it 4.5 years later.

June 1, 2012 - Martin Armstrong: Are Commodities Preparing for a MAJOR RALLY? Armstrong is still looking for gold to explode to the upside into 2015 due to the Sovereign Debt Crisis - in this case the exact opposite happened - Commodities essentially collapsed for the, almost, 4 years following his statement.

November 2009 - "Martin Armstrong: Gold Headed To $5,000 And Beyond!" - 6 years later and no where near. That is not saying it can't or won't - just that without a date - it is a rather meaningless statement.

April 19th, 2013 - "We elected Weekly Bearish Reversals in both metals with gold closing at 1397.2 and 2304.1. Gold closed also just below the Weekly Break line 1398.6. This is warning that the FAILURE to exceed Friday's 4/19 high intraday, and a penetration of 1310, we are looking at a drop to $1158. Breach that, and we very well may see $907 in 2 weeks." No chance. Before he said this Gold had dropped $200 in the month of April, 2013 but it ended about $90 higher after he made the statement and it did not reach or breach $1158 although the following month it came close. Sub $1000 has not occurred even 3 years later.

Dec 2012 - "The metals will be taking off during 2013, Martin believes after the summer, going all the way to 2016. Major support is at 1570." - Gold started December 2012 at $1720 and closed 2013 at $1205 - $1570 was not support and June (Summer), it went below $1200.
 

Oct 2013 - Gold's going to drop below $1000 - and here is an example of his flip-flopping from the previous prediction. Sub $1000 has not occurred even 2.5 years later.

Aug 9, 2013 - "Martin Armstrong has come out with this shocker – Dow 32,000 by 2015! - needless to say this wasn't even close to transpiring.

In 2013 - regarding the above DOW call: "Gold will be a beneficiary too, but in 2015." but later stated ''$650-910 price of Gold coming soon.'' - so this is an extreme flip-flop and neither came close to fruition.

September 14, 2014 - "Is Martin Armstrong Right on Sub-$1000 Gold?" - This seems to be a call that he is sticking with (see below), and I don't disagree, but the timing has not proven him correct to date.'