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Untoward

Land Registry Predictions

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In honour of Rantnrave.

I am going for a very modest -0.1% fall, with the March figure "massaged down" by -0.2%.

Then expect a -0.3% fall for May in the first post-election release (with April fall also corrected to -0.3% fall). Thoughts?

Edited by Untoward
grammar

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People, you should add the description to your numbers yoy, mom ...

More interesting for me is the number of sales compared to 2015, 2016 being very special with the SDLT rush

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Sales down 20%, monthly +0.5%, yoy range + 1% to 8%. Pcl -20% but who cares its for Arabs Russians and Chinese anyway.

SSDD. Like a broken record Hpi forever.

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I'm going to go with a very specific prediction - House price index for Islington is already back down to January 2015 (100). Given the steepness of the trend I reckon 95 (aka Jun-July 2014) could be seen.

islington-index.jpg

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1 hour ago, Untoward said:

In honour of Rantnrave.

I am going for a very modest -0.1% fall, with the March figure "massaged down" by -0.2%.

Then expect a -0.3% fall for May in the first post-election release (with April fall also corrected to -0.3% fall). Thoughts?

It's all about psychology.

Popular perception is that we have a housing affordability crisis because not enough houses are being built (too many immigrants). A fall in prices would thus be welcomed by the general public ahead of the GE, who may even interpret it as an early indicator that Brexit is working!

My guess is a fall of -0.7% with an upward revision in June.

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11 hours ago, zugzwang said:

My guess is a fall of -0.7% with an upward revision in June.

I somehow missed this thread!

Good guess - or did you have insider knowledge?

And no Count, I haven't found how much the last figure was revised by...

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12 hours ago, anonlymouse said:

I'm going to go with a very specific prediction - House price index for Islington is already back down to January 2015 (100). Given the steepness of the trend I reckon 95 (aka Jun-July 2014) could be seen.

Islington is now at 99 - cheeky blighters revised February upwards to 102. Still a drop though :)

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21 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

I somehow missed this thread!

Good guess - or did you have insider knowledge?

And no Count, I haven't found how much the last figure was revised by...

:lol: 

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17 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

I somehow missed this thread!

Good guess - or did you have insider knowledge?

And no Count, I haven't found how much the last figure was revised by...

 Everything points to the economy being in recession again, so I thought a figure >-0.5% was plausible but -1.0% too extreme. Split the difference. :)

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Just now, zugzwang said:

 Everything points to the economy being in recession again, so I thought a figure >-0.5% was plausible but -1.0% too extreme. Split the difference. :)

London, -1.5%.

London is the source if the rises in the S.E and the Shires to the North.

Those BIG london drops will eventually feed into the Shires and Bilbo will be f**ked.

 

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12 hours ago, anonlymouse said:

I'm going to go with a very specific prediction - House price index for Islington is already back down to January 2015 (100). Given the steepness of the trend I reckon 95 (aka Jun-July 2014) could be seen.

islington-index.jpg

What's the % fall from peak now ?

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3 minutes ago, anonlymouse said:

Islington peaked at £678,958 / 110.16 in August 2016. It's now £615,100 / 99.80 in March 2017.

10% down.

 

Must be some London boroughs much worse better than that ?

 

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1 hour ago, anonlymouse said:

Don't get your hopes up, Hackney next door is still growing: +0.24% Month on Month and a whopping +0.8% Year on Year. Don't mention CPI ;).

How many sales ? 

 

1 ? 

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