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The Geography Of The Crash

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I have posted this elsewhere but I think it is so important that I've put it in a new thread...

...I really urge everyone to have a look at the latest Halifax report. It's the best and clearest indication of a correction that I have seen since I joined HPC (Septemberish 2005). Don't look at the headline national figures but at the county analysis given at the end of the "UK Overview".

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/quarterlyregionalcomments.asp

You will see the geography of the price slump in 2005 set out.

Very broadly the Midlands and southwards saw nominal falls between -1% and 10% (so you can add inflation to that). This was counterbalanced by big rises in Northern Ireland, Scotland and other regions to the North.

Here's a flavour:

2004 - 2005 % change

County Londonderry +15%

Fife +11%

Highland +8%

County Fermanagh +6%

Cumbria +4%

South Yorkshire +1%

Bedfordshire 0%

Lincolnshire -1%

Essex -2%

Gwent -3%

Leicestershire -4%

Worcestershire -5%

Devon -6%

West Sussex -7%

Somerset - 10%

The correction is happening and as the northern boom fizzles out it will gradually extend to the rest of the country.

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My girlfriend has been looking on and off to buy in Hackney. I find the 26% rises unbelievable. my personal take would be flat give or take 5% either way. I can only assume either the terrible properties or the best ones have risen massively and skewed the figures, but I am certain the "average nice" FTB property in Hackney has not risen 26% or anywhere close.

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My gosh!!!. I had never realised the south was struggling so much.!! As somebody based in the North, this give me hope!!

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My girlfriend has been looking on and off to buy in Hackney. I find the 26% rises unbelievable. my personal take would be flat give or take 5% either way. I can only assume either the terrible properties or the best ones have risen massively and skewed the figures, but I am certain the "average nice" FTB property in Hackney has not risen 26% or anywhere close.

I agree with that - I think there has been a bit of idiotic activity in the East of the borough though - a lovely investment flat in vibrant Hackney Wick to cash in on the Olympics, idiot buyer required etc - but round N16, Dalston, Hackney Central, Clapton the normal properties haven't changed much in that time at all. I think we can surmise that Rosie Millard's BTL hasn't gone up either otherwise she'd be crowing about it. Maybe the halifax figures are comparing some shoddy newbuilds to similar size flats last year or something, but I don't think they reflect the reality of normal property here.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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