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Mapatasy

House prices are falling - so why are the morons still confident?

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Is it being deflated on purpose. It's not a economic system shock. I do see properties entering the market at inflated prices.

If the consumer wants a crash... stop buying... watch inflation rise... jobs to be lost... loss off confidence in the pound... causing a sell off.. 

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Because over the last nine years they've not noticed all the props being used to hold the market up. Now they'll do just what they've done in the past, wait for their arses to be saved again. Only this time rates are on the floor, QE is maxed out and there ard no greater fools left. 

HPC here we go.

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I saw a poll on Australians' expectations of House Prices for the next few years. Choices were: (a) rise a lot (b) rise a little (c) stagnate (d) fall a little or (e) fall a lot

The figure that made my eyes pop, which was the last choice " fall a lot".

That was chosen by a massive 1.7% of the Australians polled. That is TINY, fewer than one in fifty.  ( And presumably all those people are on the Aussie version of HPC- I believe that there is one). As I recall the proportion expecting a large rise in House prices was more in the nature of 40%.

This kind of wide-spread societal expectation is definitely part of the HPI problem. 

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On 2017-5-9 at 11:58 PM, Blod said:

Because over the last nine years they've not noticed all the props being used to hold the market up. Now they'll do just what they've done in the past, wait for their arses to be saved again. Only this time rates are on the floor, QE is maxed out and there ard no greater fools left. 

HPC here we go.

The mortgage debt junkies I know are all supporting Labour in the forthcoming GE, I believe to save their asses.

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If they continue to drum it into the soft consumer minds.. then it becomes real in their minds.... I would say that at some stage this credit fuelled party will become an amazing hangover.... once affordability leads to foreclosures... as they have run out of options....   

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I dont doubt our Prime minister is smart.

the timing of the election is perfect its too good to miss.

Landslide > crash house prices > blame the eu for it > bounce from crash > get re elected

There is a good chance we will walk away from negotiations if only to show we are serious so this combined with rising global rates and the still stupid prices has to mean chances are this is a good time to crash or at least Manage down prices whilst keeping the credit taps on.

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To be fair, not everyone is looking to buy or sell. So people who are in the market can have an idea of where the market is heading, other people will just have confidence built on past trends.

Myself I go back to the micro economic level, and for me buyers at this level of price in London just can't exist anymore, if you disregard the foreign buyers and dirty money.

In my office some top5% earner can't afford to buy what is meant to be a middle class house. 

So if BTL is pushed out of the market who is left to buy?

And if London falls, the rest will follow.

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bloke in front of me in the bank queue today was completing on a house in 2 weeks.....now i know what a greatest fool looks like

 

I felt liking screaming out DONT DO IT !!!...but I didnt

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Good family homes still going to sealed bids, no sign of a crash or even a softening here.

I have seen a noticeable increase in KITE FLYING inventory, good stuff at good prices is going to bids.

Just waiting for the stock increase to hit demand.

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45 minutes ago, Freki said:

To be fair, not everyone is looking to buy or sell. So people who are in the market can have an idea of where the market is heading, other people will just have confidence built on past trends.

Myself I go back to the micro economic level, and for me buyers at this level of price in London just can't exist anymore, if you disregard the foreign buyers and dirty money.

In my office some top5% earner can't afford to buy what is meant to be a middle class house. 

So if BTL is pushed out of the market who is left to buy?

And if London falls, the rest will follow.

I dont think the rest will fall because of London.

The rest ofthe UK deacthed itself from London hoise prices 15 years ago.

If London falls than the home counties and the odd places the London buyers sell up - Cornwall and the like - will crash.

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1 hour ago, Fromage Frais said:

I dont doubt our Prime minister is smart.

the timing of the election is perfect its too good to miss.

Landslide > crash house prices > blame the eu for it > bounce from crash > get re elected

There is a good chance we will walk away from negotiations if only to show we are serious so this combined with rising global rates and the still stupid prices has to mean chances are this is a good time to crash or at least Manage down prices whilst keeping the credit taps on.

Yep - she's a damned sight smarter than Brown who bottled the chance to go for a GE when the economy was going well and then got hit with a massive crash (which he fully deserved seeing as he played a big part in creating it).   Moron.

 

Five years is more than enough time for a HPC to turn into a recovery, which makes her government look great for 'navigating through it'.  And Brexit is the perfect scapegoat for the crash in the first place.

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1 hour ago, GreenDevil said:

Good family homes still going to sealed bids, no sign of a crash or even a softening here.

I have seen a noticeable increase in KITE FLYING inventory, good stuff at good prices is going to bids.

Just waiting for the stock increase to hit demand.

I my areas if its under 400/450 and nice it flies.

Two good earners (for Norfolk) with mortgage 50k  x 4.5 = 225k + equity from selling a flat 100k + mum and dad 50k = £375K

You can see from above that either a fall in house prices or decrease in lending will bring that amount down pronto as both equity and mum and dad require rising equity.

But above 500k unless its NR2 prime it can stay on for ages.

For example Beech Road Wroxham at one time had an average sale price of 1.3 million not the last few properties I have seen advertised 750k still for sale, 950k taken off market, 850 rented out .... are just not shifting or being reduced either they would rather take them off the market.

You can nearly get twice the house at 550/650 than you do at 450

 

Edited by Fromage Frais

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