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The excellent thing is sentiment with the average Joe has now changed and sentiment change is underestimated in its effect. It tends to snowball and the fall in prices will accelerate.

Downward spiral will be exacerbated by YoY "negative influences" - decrease in tax relief next 4 years. Uni towns losing up to 40% of EU students who will be forced to pay top wack fees, and E Europeans stating to go home (especially when £ tanks).

 

So sentiment change plus future further negative drivers. Great news

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One thing for sure, after a tory land slide in June they will be free to either steal even more of our savings/wages ( likely ) or collapse prices ( unlikely).

The tories have a plan for sure, they're just not telling the country what it is.

I fully expect more support for the bubble and more an non-brexit brexit

 

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2 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

One thing for sure, after a tory land slide in June they will be free to either steal even more of our savings/wages ( likely ) or collapse prices ( unlikely).

The tories have a plan for sure, they're just not telling the country what it is.

I fully expect more support for the bubble and more an non-brexit brexit

 

Agreed - they'll have to double down on asset price support with Brexit looming.

Anyone want to take bets on what form it will take? 

- More 'Help to Buy'?

- Even looser monetary policy from the BoE?

- Return of MIRAS?

....  All the above?

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I don't think they will support it until the froth has gone, they will happily accept a return to 2013 prices before they start supporting. they don't mind high prices as they were in 2013, but they do mind economy destroying bubbles we have had 2014-2016. Hence the BTL scum purge. 

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36 minutes ago, Sour Mash said:

Agreed - they'll have to double down on asset price support with Brexit looming.

Anyone want to take bets on what form it will take? 

- More 'Help to Buy'?

- Even looser monetary policy from the BoE?

- Return of MIRAS?

....  All the above?

They have raised expectations of interventions so they will have to! The lenders eg. Halifax are waking up because of the lower mortgage volumes. My gut says mortgage rates can go lower and margins too. Ok the consequences will be more massive cost savings at banks (more branch closures and process automation). Some lenders will just exit the mortgage marketplace as other lenders chase what little business is out there!

Edited by Ash4781
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35 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

I don't think they will support it until the froth has gone, they will happily accept a return to 2013 prices before they start supporting. they don't mind high prices as they were in 2013, but they do mind economy destroying bubbles we have had 2014-2016. Hence the BTL scum purge. 

Yep and if I where them now i would keep credit juiced and force out the speculators and BTL crowd into this juiced up demand.

the question is how much of a house price is made up of speculators/BTL being the marginal buyer.

It has to be a good 20/30% surely

 

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38 minutes ago, Sour Mash said:

Agreed - they'll have to double down on asset price support with Brexit looming.

Anyone want to take bets on what form it will take? 

- More 'Help to Buy'?

- Even looser monetary policy from the BoE?

- Return of MIRAS?

....  All the above?

Barwell's dog kennels are meant to provide additional rungs at the bottom of the ladder, so a significant expansion of Build To Rent has to be on the cards.

The Term Funding Scheme is up for review in August. Another £100bn in helicopter money for the City of London, perhaps with a cherry on top this time round i.e. a negative interest rate?

Progress towards a balanced budget will be deferred for the fourth (?) time, pushed back into the fag-ends of the next parliament i.e. 2026/2027.

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Have to say I'm buzzing about this. Feels like the first time I've seen the BBC acknowledge the affordability issue. Anecdotally my parents and in-laws are both selling in SE and have taken offers well below the asking price. 

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the tories saw that prices would tank, they suddenly announced an election due to it. By the time the falls are big enough, and by the time the average person relaises that prices are falling the election will of passed with a tory landslide.

of course the real rich people (without leverage) will clean up. those who voted tory thinking themselves rich and clever will suddenly feel pretty stupid with a big mortgage and negative equity.

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19 minutes ago, GreenDevil said:

Any idea of a rate hike for the next 5 years is fantasy. More free BOE money till way after brexit. Expect the cons and the boe to stitch up the working man and look after their bankster scumbag mates. 

I must admit, that is what I think will happen, but we're forgetting 1 thing....THE AMERICANS ARE IN CHARGE


At the end of the day, if no one is willing or able to buy prices will collapse.

 

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5 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

the tories saw that prices would tank, they suddenly announced an election due to it. By the time the falls are big enough, and by the time the average person relaises that prices are falling the election will of passed with a tory landslide.

of course the real rich people (without leverage) will clean up. those who voted tory thinking themselves rich and clever will suddenly feel pretty stupid with a big mortgage and negative equity.

That's the best we can hope for.

 

The banks cant lend against 1000 sales a year, they will be destroyed.  The need volumes and only way to get volume now is for prices to collapse.

 

 

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27 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I must admit, that is what I think will happen, but we're forgetting 1 thing....THE AMERICANS ARE IN CHARGE


At the end of the day, if no one is willing or able to buy prices will collapse.

 

And even in the one place where the Americans were definitely in charge - America - the authorities couldn't stop a house price crash.

I think we're at the beginning of the end for the "slow growth via asset bubbles"-phase of the global economic story, and there is no way that the UK can isolate itself from that trend. TPTB aren't going to be that circumspect about destroying what is mostly notional wealth held by mortgage-free or low-LTV homeowners; all the signs point to them trying to mitigate the mess of non-homeowners reducing aggregate demand, destroying the tax base and, eventually, having no savings and breaking the welfare system. It might not be quick, but it's over for the HPI-forever dreamers.  

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47 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

the tories saw that prices would tank, they suddenly announced an election due to it. By the time the falls are big enough, and by the time the average person relaises that prices are falling the election will of passed with a tory landslide.

of course the real rich people (without leverage) will clean up. those who voted tory thinking themselves rich and clever will suddenly feel pretty stupid with a big mortgage and negative equity.

It is in the long term electoral interest of the Tory Party to ensure that owner occupiers out number renters as the latter tend not to have too much sympathy for the established property owning classes. The problem was that current trends in ownership due to HPI increasing so much faster  than wages was heading the other way. The Conservatives have to reverse that trend to protect the long term interests of their backers. If that means chucking over levered BTL landlords, non voting foreign speculators and other idiots who bought into the bubble under a bus so be it. The problem is that the governing party needs at least a full Parliament of 5 years to allow the process to complete. I think timing this issue was a more important reason for May calling an early election than Brexit.

Edited by stormymonday_2011
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21 minutes ago, A third of everything said:

What sort of % under are they looking at?

Offered 10% under and settled at 8% under for a 4 bedroom house in Kent. (Divorce sale though)
Offered 10% under and settled at 5% under for a two bedroom flat in London. 

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5 minutes ago, Glental said:

Offered 10% under and settled at 8% under for a 4 bedroom house in Kent. (Divorce sale though)
Offered 10% under and settled at 5% under for a two bedroom flat in London. 

Hopefully the lower offers didn't cause any of them too much inconvenience, but thanks for sharing as it's encouraging to see other people are going in at 10% less - certainly when we tried that it didn't work for us (they accepted 1.5% less from someone else eventually) but that was last autumn.

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1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I must admit, that is what I think will happen, but we're forgetting 1 thing....THE AMERICANS ARE IN CHARGE


At the end of the day, if no one is willing or able to buy prices will collapse.

 

I hope you're right but I fear that prices will flat line and the market stagnate. Its happened for the last 3 months. 

The only way of falls is higher rates and that I'm afraid isn't going to happen.

Br realistic, The americans are in charge of their one 1\4 point hike per year. This is window dressing . They will cut much faster....

Sorry to be a bearer of bad news but a 0% 0.1% and -0.1% stagnation isn't a crash to get all excited over!

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13 minutes ago, A third of everything said:

Hopefully the lower offers didn't cause any of them too much inconvenience, but thanks for sharing as it's encouraging to see other people are going in at 10% less - certainly when we tried that it didn't work for us (they accepted 1.5% less from someone else eventually) but that was last autumn.

Both had mortgages paid off and were bought long before the boom so no-one is too bad off.

I'm really hoping it's part of a wider trend. It really feels like the market is stagnant and prices are wishful thinking.

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Oh do come on we've been waiting a long time, this will do for now.

Anyway, I suspect the end is nigh, The Tories chose the ideal time for the election, Corbyn is hopeless, so should get a stable majority, no need for short term fixes anymore, let it crash, then in 5 years all will be forgotten and tax cuts will rain down from the sky.

I can feel it in my bones....

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24 minutes ago, GreenDevil said:

I hope you're right but I fear that prices will flat line and the market stagnate. Its happened for the last 3 months. 

The only way of falls is higher rates and that I'm afraid isn't going to happen.

Br realistic, The americans are in charge of their one 1\4 point hike per year. This is window dressing . They will cut much faster....

Sorry to be a bearer of bad news but a 0% 0.1% and -0.1% stagnation isn't a crash to get all excited over!

I agree. We had a few isolated monthly falls last year that were greater than this quarterly fall. It's nothing to get excited about. I was really dissapointed by the -0.1%, I was expecting something juicier than that.

On the plus side, at least the media (especially the BBC) are reporting the negatives for a change. The spin in this headline from "residentiallandlord" made me chuckle though!

"Annual House Price Growth Remains Stable"

:lol:

Edited by electrogear
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5 minutes ago, electrogear said:

 

"Annual House Price Growth Remains Stable"

:lol:

Lol. That's looking at a half empty glass half full. 

Gotta put a positive spin on it, though the mrs did look on her iPad, first comment house prices are dropping.... Maybe it will stops the last few idiots buying?

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1 hour ago, GreenDevil said:

I hope you're right but I fear that prices will flat line and the market stagnate. Its happened for the last 3 months. 

The only way of falls is higher rates and that I'm afraid isn't going to happen.

Br realistic, The americans are in charge of their one 1\4 point hike per year. This is window dressing . They will cut much faster....

Sorry to be a bearer of bad news but a 0% 0.1% and -0.1% stagnation isn't a crash to get all excited over!

Whilst I am also reserving judgement, we don't need a base rate rise or even a mortgage rate rise.

Rent reductions are equivalent to an interest rate rise if you are a leveraged landlord. 

I don't think rent reductions are unlikely at all, particularly after Brexit and particularly in London.

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