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Jason

No Crash Yet But Who Knows What Is Round The Corner?

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"If we can afford it now, then we will always be able to afford it' seems to be how many people think

There is a certain air of smugness pervading the housing market at the moment, a touch of “here we are in 2006 and, see, the Great Housing Crash hasn’t happened”. It seems as if every estate agent, lender and commentator has evidence that the housing market is back on the up. "

More: http://property.timesonline.co.uk/article/...2009677,00.html

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Good early find.

I think this will be first page of the BRicks and Mortar supplement tomorrow. THe bull's favorite early weekend read.

I like that Catherine Riley, she is much more crash edjucated than old Spankman who used to edit it.

But in the picture Catherine appears to have only a head and no discernable attached body :huh:

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"If interest rates go up a couple of percentage points and house prices go down? Think it’ll never happen? Maybe not. But then who would have thought we would ever see a whale in the Thames? "

Has she been reading here? Yep.

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Well with no discernable body I think she is entirely suited to work involving reading HPC all day.

As long as she has a friend to hold the mouse.

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I think this counts as HPC in the media for sure!

The little whale comment is a sure sign to those of us (HPC'ers) in the know and I give my thanks to Catherine Riley for perhaps writing the first of the property realist stories I think i've read in a mainstream newspaper media, i have no doubt it wont be the last!

HPC is not about being all doom and gloom - its about recognising economic stability and I feel that these words might at least make some FTB's or OO's consider the current market conditions from the more realist perspective... that all markets have rises and falls seems to go without saying in most economic discussions but mention House Prices and far too many people only see the bouyant side of the market.

With debts at such historically high levels and people borrowing more than ever for houses and from MEW's its important to look at the historical context and remember this amazing rises in sums borrowed ever month on month is not coming from increased sales but increased costs of the property! See below!

Ultimately we are living beyond our means and in my opinion many people are potentially 'mortgaging their futures' more than they could possibly understand.

Note how close the 1984-1988 number of loans made (from the CML data below) is to 1997+ totals.... and remember how bad HPC was then.... from 1989-1994.

Now spread that out over ten years and add most of the world's property markets in at the same time (we're all on pretty much historically low interest rates at the moment)... and what do you get?!?!?!?

It wont be pretty :huh:

Loans for

house purchase

000s

Year

1974 454

1975 672

1976 731

1977 773

1978 .

1979 777

1980 721

1981 730

1982 840

1983 952

1984 1,070

1985 1,073

1986 1,248

1987 1,108

1988 1,256

1989 886

1990 783

1991 722

1992 600

1993 953

1994 959

1995 799

1996 960

1997 1,106

1998 1,093

1999 1,254

2000 1,123

2001 1,314

2002 1,398

2003 1,252

2004 1,245

From:

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/statistics

- pye (property speculation ninja! :ph34r: )

Edited by pyewackitt

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Odd... my Times this morning had a large piece on house price growth in London accompanied by a number of equally positive articles from around the country and some of the most inpentrable graphics regarding the situation in Newcaslte.

All looked rosy to me.

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House price growth in London?

My area is down 2% according to the Halifax report....

I think that these were December figures... not sure who from. To be taken with a pinch of salt, I suspect.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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