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jiltedjen

BBC news article 2 months of price falls

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nice to see an article actually in the BBC news announcing two months of falls 'part of a broader trend'

anything to further kill sentiment.

now I don't look like a crazy person saying that prices are falling for the last two months. 

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I mentioned in a current affairs thread that I have a new client, a global property company in the City.  I went to a meeting a couple of weeks ago where they were discussing strategy (and the new software I am developing for them), new revenue streams and direction and the long and the short of it is that they've priced in 10% over 2 years in London (down to brexit and the belief large swathes of professionals will move over to the continent), and that their emphasis now was to remove themselves from direct ownership, ad more into management and maintenance and in partnerships with large fund groups who own a lot of property into how best to manage the situation.  Post brexit, they do not see high rises but feel it could decline more, slightly, or rise more, slowly, but that 10% is priced in in the next two years.

After the meeting, I asked someone what they'd do if they were in the market for a house and his advice was sit tight for a year or two, but if that it was a 'forever home' to buy it when I could, as they didn't come along often.

We were going to buy this year, fed up, but it gave me a lot of reasons not to.

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Wow thank you for your insight. Falls and stagnation is good for me as both myself and my partner are living with parents with no rent. so even stagnating house prices constitute a crash against my increasing savings.

a year or two of stagnation would mean little or no mortgage come 2018/2019. late 20's with most of a mortgage allready behind me seems ideal.

i can see the scales have been tipped to falling prices, the election was the cherry on top. 

Regarding a 'forever home' if I was 50 and wanted a certain house in a certain area I would agree. 

I think I am close to my peak lifetime earnings allready. even an average house would seem extravagant to my peers. 

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I got out in 2014, thinking I was smart!  Not too smart now, although saving a lot, paying above average rent from where we are.  I'll probably buy within the next two years and it will probably be a forever, as I am 50 :lol:

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Just another six months to go before it's classed as a recession. As for prices, well that's linked to central bank interest rates. As they rise the other side magically falls.

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12 hours ago, HairyOb1 said:

I mentioned in a current affairs thread that I have a new client, a global property company in the City.  I went to a meeting a couple of weeks ago where they were discussing strategy (and the new software I am developing for them), new revenue streams and direction and the long and the short of it is that they've priced in 10% over 2 years in London (down to brexit and the belief large swathes of professionals will move over to the continent), and that their emphasis now was to remove themselves from direct ownership, ad more into management and maintenance and in partnerships with large fund groups who own a lot of property into how best to manage the situation.  Post brexit, they do not see high rises but feel it could decline more, slightly, or rise more, slowly, but that 10% is priced in in the next two years.

Slightly frustrating that you said it twice without a direction both times. :rolleyes:  Are you talking about a 10% RISE or a 10% FALL? TIA.

 

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12 hours ago, mrtickle said:

Slightly frustrating that you said it twice without a direction both times. :rolleyes:  Are you talking about a 10% RISE or a 10% FALL? TIA.

 

It confused me too....and this :

 

"Post brexit, they do not see high rises but feel it could decline more, slightly, or rise more, slowly, but that 10% is priced in in the next two years."

 

Hairy Ob I`m baffled with this statement ..are you saying that the prices forecast is up, or down 10% , or they could swing either way by that amount ?

 

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1 minute ago, GinAndPlatonic said:

It confused me too....and this :

 

"Post brexit, they do not see high rises but feel it could decline more, slightly, or rise more, slowly, but that 10% is priced in in the next two years."

 

Hairy Ob I`m baffled with this statement ..are you saying that the prices forecast is up, or down 10% , or they could swing either way by that amount ?

 

People stop buying in times of uncertainty. They seek to cash in and down size. The more properties that come onto the market, the more price competitive it gets... 

2 months is a minor, 6 months is a sign of panic. 1 year is a hawk down moment.

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Sorry, I thought I had, maybe I didn't.  I am advised 10% FALLS are priced in over the timescale of leaving, but that afterwards, they don't see much shifting either way.  T be frank, I got the impression a lot of people knew prices would fall initially, but then really didn't know what was going to go on afterwards.  However, they are moving more to a property management and maintenance model, rather than in ownership, that yields are simply too low, with too much risk today.

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trouble is, nationwide, as with Halifax, base their hpi on mortgages not the actual selling prices. they then adjust and smooth them, so in actual fact ou don't ever get a true figure, just a nice headline.

I only listen to the HPI from either the HMRC based on SDLT revenues, which has its own faults, or the Land registry data index, both of these of course are open to a small amount of market manipulation but certainly more accurate than the NWide or HFax hpi's

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1 hour ago, Wayward said:

"neutral gear"...well makes a change from "pausing for breath"

This morning I drove up the biggest f**king hill I could find then put my car into neutral gear to see what would happen.....

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4 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

This morning I drove up the biggest f**king hill I could find then put my car into neutral gear to see what would happen.....

+1

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