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rantnrave

Nationwide Apr 17 -0.4%

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wont be too long until reports start getting delayed, and heavy backwards revisions (falls) happen.
i see a lot of -0.1% and 0.1% coupled with plenty of 'last month figures revised down 2%'
 

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11 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

wont be too long until reports start getting delayed, and heavy backwards revisions (falls) happen.
i see a lot of -0.1% and 0.1% coupled with plenty of 'last month figures revised down 2%'
 

The comments along with the report make for sickening reading.

Apparantley they dont quite understand why the prices fell.

Despite, US IRs rise, BTL be8ing hammers, insane prices, BrExit, Foreign buyers doing a runner etc etc etc.

I am appalled at the behavior of the Nationwide which is the one Mutual with any clout and the one who should be looking after their savers

Dare I suggest, I think they're lying.

 

 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Quote from Nationwide HPI report:

"However, there are also data that caution against writing off the UK consumer just yet. While retail sales have slowed markedly, spending in other areas, including big ticket items like cars, has remained robust."

 

Is this the same spending on big ticket items like cars that had the Bank of England and FCA worried about a credit bubble? You could not make this shit up!! 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/18/city-watchdogs-could-ban-irresponsible-car-loans-new-investigation/amp/

 

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It's written with the mind to continue the current asset values. Imagine they said the values are dropping, entrapping people into negative equity.... the feeling would become desperation.

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https://bloom.bg/2oS1c9K

Bloomberg article making the link between affordability and price ratios.

Currently 6.1X earnings v 4.5X long run average. All time high was 6.4X.

Just over 25% to fall back to long run average. 

Another few months of marginal price falls could see a negative annual rate. 

 

C-ereb_XoAEPCB4.jpg

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1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

The comments along with the report make for sickening reading.

Apparantley they dont quite understand why the prices fell.

Despite, US IRs rise, BTL be8ing hammers, insane prices, BrExit, Foreign buyers doing a runner etc etc etc.

 

HTB part Deux (for all property) finished at the end of 2016. There's not been much discussion on that one on this site, but it is a major prop removed. 

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2 minutes ago, deflation said:

BBC even mentioned it on Today who are covering the chronic underbuilding of new homes.

In other news, 28% of property transactions in 2016 were by Asian investors!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39732816

Was going to start a separate thread on that one. It is such an exercise in cherry picking data.

If transactions overall go down and the number of Asian investors stays the same, they form an increasing percentage of the transactions.

The article also states that most of the Asian buyers are using cash, and later on, that most are just middle class households. So the average middle class household in China has £500k in cash sloshing around?

Then there's a bit about how the demand for UK property from Asians was so strong, a lady over there started a business in 2015 to help her fellow citizens buy in the UK. 2015 nicely timed with a frothy UK property market - wonder how she's finding things now.

Smacks of desperation to put this piece out and nicely timed to coincide with the Nationwide release today (which the BBC will have had an embargoed copy of beforehand).

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18 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

HTB part Deux (for all property) finished at the end of 2016. There's not been much discussion on that one on this site, but it is a major prop removed. 

I dont think HTB per se cause the magical re-inflation, I think it helped with sentiment.

The real culprit was  the FLS which is still going on !!!

The vigilant bankers lowered IRs and printed another £100bn to keep the party going but it looks like the end is neigh.

That means they'll collapse the bubble and the bankers can keep all those 50% deposits and 20% HTB tax payer promises.

To say the market is rigged is an understatement of universe sized proporations

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Last six lines from the report:

Month    mom   3-3   y-y   avg price
Nov-16   0.0   0.8   4.4   204,947
Dec-16   0.7   0.6   4.5   205,898
Jan-17   0.1   0.6   4.3   205,240
Feb-17   0.6   1.0   4.5   205,846
Mar-17   -0.3  0.9   3.5   207,308
Apr-17   -0.4  0.6   2.6   207,699

How is it that the average price between feb and march, for example, went up by 1500, but the m-o-m change was negative? 

Is this where they sprinkle a bit of 'seasonal adjustment'?

 

For the 3 month change, I also don't understand how they get the percentages they get:

Does it mean E.g. Apr / Jan = 1.2% rise

Or alternatively:  ((Apr+Mar+Feb)/3) / ((Jan + Dec + Nov)/3) = 206951 / 205362 = 0.77%

 

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2 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I dont think HTB per se cause the magical re-inflation, I think it helped with sentiment.

The real culprit was  the FLS which is still going on !!!

The vigilant bankers lowered IRs and printed another £100bn to keep the party going but it looks like the end is neigh.

That means they'll collapse the bubble and the bankers can keep all those 50% deposits and 20% HTB tax payer promises.

To say the market is rigged is an understatement of universe sized proporations

Term Funding Scheme (the latest wheeze) is up for review in August.

The FLS taper is well under way - to be all wound down by early January I believe?

HTB for newbuilds, London and HTB ISA still going strong.

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U.K. house prices fell for a second month in April, according to Nationwide Building Society, which said the drop may be part of a wider trend showing weakness in consumer demand. The 0.4 percent decline, the biggest since 2012, followed a 0.3 percent fall in March. It reduced annual growth to 2.6 percent, the weakest since June 2013, Nationwide said in a report on Friday. Nationwide chief economist Robert Gardner said the softening in house-price growth may be a sign households are “starting to react to the emerging squeeze on real incomes or to affordability pressures in key parts of the country.” - Link

800x-1.png

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27 minutes ago, deflation said:

BBC even mentioned it on Today who are covering the chronic underbuilding of new homes.

In other news, 28% of property transactions in 2016 were by Asian investors!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39732816

Quote

"London is London," she said. "Even with the panic of Brexit, and things go up and down in the economy, property prices in the centre of London just always bounce back. So you just can't go wrong with that kind of investment."

Is that what we call a bubble? Can't go wrong? well buckle up and sit tight

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2 minutes ago, Henrik said:

Last six lines from the report:


Month    mom   3-3   y-y   avg price
Nov-16   0.0   0.8   4.4   204,947
Dec-16   0.7   0.6   4.5   205,898
Jan-17   0.1   0.6   4.3   205,240
Feb-17   0.6   1.0   4.5   205,846
Mar-17   -0.3  0.9   3.5   207,308
Apr-17   -0.4  0.6   2.6   207,699

How is it that the average price between feb and march, for example, went up by 1500, but the m-o-m change was negative? 

Is this where they sprinkle a bit of 'seasonal adjustment'?

 

For the 3 month change, I also don't understand how they get the percentages they get:

Does it mean E.g. Apr / Jan = 1.2% rise

Or alternatively:  ((Apr+Mar+Feb)/3) / ((Jan + Dec + Nov)/3) = 206951 / 205362 = 0.77%

 

Seasonal adjusting. I think there's some Non-SA data out there somewhere?

Q1 2016 saw some chunky rises on this index which are about to drop out of the annual calculation.

Even if prices remain flat next month, YoY should fall to 1% ish
(cue whopping 1.8% MoM rise in May...)

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5 minutes ago, Henrik said:

Last six lines from the report:


Month    mom   3-3   y-y   avg price
Nov-16   0.0   0.8   4.4   204,947
Dec-16   0.7   0.6   4.5   205,898
Jan-17   0.1   0.6   4.3   205,240
Feb-17   0.6   1.0   4.5   205,846
Mar-17   -0.3  0.9   3.5   207,308
Apr-17   -0.4  0.6   2.6   207,699

How is it that the average price between feb and march, for example, went up by 1500, but the m-o-m change was negative? 

Is this where they sprinkle a bit of 'seasonal adjustment'?

No, It is the avg price for the last 12Months. Or avg price of each last 12 months avg price. So it is right that this figure keeps on rising. But the trick will be short lived.

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springbounce.JPG.48ed5e64017ca30e44dbe9077f39febb.JPG

This is the biggest monthly fall in April since 2008. Year on Year and Quarterly still in the positive figures but I'm sure Apr-18 will tell a different story.

The spring bounce is slightly hobbled this year.

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I suspect if you took out London prices would be booming.  I also suspect the boom is cause by them with the magic free money moving out of London and buying insanely prices houses in the shires no one locally can dream of buying at those prices.

The asking prices round North-ants are price 100% more than 2007 now !!! ( should still be about half 2007 levels ).

 

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1 minute ago, anonlymouse said:

springbounce.JPG.48ed5e64017ca30e44dbe9077f39febb.JPG

This is the biggest monthly fall in April since 2008. Year on Year and Quarterly still in the positive figures but I'm sure Apr-18 will tell a different story.

The spring bounce is slightly hobbled this year.

Spring Collapse.


The Torys are playing a blinder.

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6 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I suspect if you took out London prices would be booming.  I also suspect the boom is cause by them with the magic free money moving out of London and buying insanely prices houses in the shires no one locally can dream of buying at those prices.

The asking prices round North-ants are price 100% more than 2007 now !!! ( should still be about half 2007 levels ).

 

This.

A reference earlier to 28% of transactions are from Asian investor. Prolly helping fuel the exodus from London.

Time to heavily tax foreigners on their overseas safe havens. Aka Canada.

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