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RushRoad

What is your Breakeven Crash Requirement?

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It just occurred to me that the home I live in I purchased in 2003 which is the same year this site was started. At the time I was not sure about going ahead and even wasted the sellers time by dragging the purchase on about 6 months with indecision but went ahead with it

Anyway assuming I hadn't bough I was thinking how much would prices need to crash now for me to break even so here is the math for me maybe others could also calculate their Break even Crash Requirement and post about it.

BCR

House purchased for £320,000 in mid 2003. And I believe similar properties rented for £1,500pm back then. Worth about £800,000 now and would get about £2,300 a month in rent 

Over 14 years I've saved about £330,000 in rent and lost about £200,000 in lost interest I would have gotten from the capital in a bank account.

I would need prices to crash to £190,000 for renting to be the break even move.

My BCR is 76% had I chosen to rent which clearly isn't going to happen.

So what are your BCRs and more importantly would you consider buying if you can't get a property for a price below that?

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Since prices have been flat in my area for ages (aside from some rampant activity in March 2016), and I've been renting for 18 months (£10,800 @ £600/month rent) I would only need prices to come down by about 5% to break even (looking with a 300K budget).

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I view opportunities which presented themselves in 2005 & 2012 but were not taken as lucky escapes.

The 2005 property would have been inadequate and I would have moved 'up the ladder' (eurgh) in about 2011/12 anyway.

The 2012 purchase would have perhaps been a good move if viewed in isolation - but home ownership may well have caused me not to chance my arm with some high risk career decisions taken in 2014 that have paid off handsomely.

No regrets. 

About 25% is about the amount I think the local market has been overvalued given what I believe to be future borrowing costs in 5-10 year terms & 15% would be enough to motivate me to start looking.

I don't require a mortgage.

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