Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
smiley1

Rightmove +1.3%

Recommended Posts

Man, will this madness ever stop, or at least slow down? Recent months it started to feel as though things may be turning, but news like this makes me feel we still have a long haul ahead. I know these will only be asking prices but in some form these will feed through into Nationwide mortgage numbers, then eventually Land Registry further down the line.

I just can't see the hoard of property being held as BTL being offloaded while landlords can see property prices still rising, even with the threat of diminished profits in a year's time due to tax changes. It's capital gains they're after - like everyone else in this insane country, HPI forever.

I can't believe how many years I've been waiting for this madness to stop.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BTLers offloading their portfolios and looking for mad capital gainz hit the market shocker

 

The portal’s latest House Price Index showed average prices on listings nationally hit a record high of £313,655, up 2.2% on a yearly basis and exceeding the previous high of £310,471 set in June 2016, but typical first-time buyer homes surged 6.5% in the 12 months to April 2017 at £194,881.

http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/asking-prices-on-typical-first-time-buyer-homes-three-times-higher-than-national-average/

Edited by rantnrave

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, canbuywontbuy said:

Clearly there is a boom going on in the UK - up the interest rates, people can afford it.

Nope. Have price controls instead.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lots of kite flying

Some of it so bad the price is reduced after a week of no interest.

Good stuff selling for a good price just not the silly prices first asked.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, canbuywontbuy said:

A pro rata yearly increase of 15.6%? Just as well wages can keep up with this growth, eh?

So yet another year when birth rates are reduced as a result of house price increases.

Quote

 

 

 

http://www.ebrd.com/documents/oce/shortterm-effects-of-house-prices-on-birth-rates.pdf

Summary

This paper explores the effects of house prices on fertility rates using a new instrumental variable strategy, exploiting exogenous variation in house prices induced by planning restrictions. Using data from English counties, the instrumental variable estimates indicate that: a 10 per cent increase in house prices leads to a 2.8 per cent increase in births among owners and a 4.9 per cent decrease in births among renters. Once calculated at the mean home ownership rate the net effect is a 1.3 per cent fall in birth rates. In addition, I document that the positive home owners effect is primarily driven by the older cohort and the negative price effect among renters is mainly driven by those aged 20-29. A further assessment of house prices and fertility nexus reveals that these effects vary by region and demographic subgroup. Taken together, the results imply that local real estate market conditions may potentially change the age structure and population dynamics of a country, including many emerging markets and transition countries.

 

A 1.3% reduction in the birth rate for a 10% increase in house prices - officially from the European Bank..  It would be interesting to know what the cumulative overall effects on the population because of the massive increases in UK house prices has been on the total UK population numbers over the years.

As a result fewer UK young people available to work in organisations like the NHS and so on.

 

 
 
 

 

Edited by billybong

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As I've said before whilst there is easy credit and a ready supply of people to use said credit house prices will continue to rise. I see no sign of either stopping, grandparents selling 600k house (to downsize and icidently with complete ease) inlaws taking the HPI mad gainz as they flog the house they have flipped (and done up) over the last 3 years made more money after tax than I have doing a paye job. There is no index showing a nationwide negatgive HPI trend yet and I can see this continuing for a bit, to be honest i now keep my HPC leanings to myself embarrased for being wrong for so long while others have put their money where their mouth is and come out with the gains (fair play they could see the upside whilst i couldn't no HPC superiors bemoaning from me (i'm concerned im sounding a bit like @Venger here)). If a CEO or football manager had gotten the results so wrong for so long he would be sacked hence why I write software and not housing market analyst.

That said the rightmove index is a rubbish one there are plenty of better more accurate indicies out there so I'm not too depressed about the initial kite flying market as If a house sells quickly at it original asking price (aka the rightmove index) then it is priced too low, if it doesn't sell at that price then the price is too high. Either way it is a lousy index.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After Brexit people/buyers now can see the bankers response, rates at nothing and qe and hpi to infinity.  

If you aren't prepare to load the boat with debt, you're screwed. Prices are rising at 15% now per annum at least until we see the end the cheap money, which IMO is going to be never.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, GreenDevil said:

After Brexit people/buyers now can see the bankers response, rates at nothing and qe and hpi to infinity.  

If you aren't prepare to load the boat with debt, you're screwed. Prices are rising at 15% now per annum at least until we see the end the cheap money, which IMO is going to be never.

 

That is the question some of those who I know who went deep into property said when mark carney was giving his forward guidance (of future rate rises) that the next move for interest rates would be down. Good call from him. He recognised that HTB would turbocharge the market and could see the negative politcs of a HPC and props that would be added (although he called MIRAS reintroduction wrong so far!). Individual choices individual decisions, If one sees this cheap money coming to an end then not buying over the last couple of years could work out otherwise it might be the most expensive mistake one might have made (and I am including me in it). Perhaps waiting for basel 3 to come in april 2019 (2 years away might have some impact) although the MMR changes hardly scratched the HPI indexes when it was introduced.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, lostinessex said:

Man, will this madness ever stop, or at least slow down? Recent months it started to feel as though things may be turning, but news like this makes me feel we still have a long haul ahead. I know these will only be asking prices but in some form these will feed through into Nationwide mortgage numbers, then eventually Land Registry further down the line.

I just can't see the hoard of property being held as BTL being offloaded while landlords can see property prices still rising, even with the threat of diminished profits in a year's time due to tax changes. It's capital gains they're after - like everyone else in this insane country, HPI forever.

I can't believe how many years I've been waiting for this madness to stop.

Don't worry buddy, that's just the ASKING price index. Basically a 'Blind Hope Index' - I'm not even sure it takes account of reductions and certainly doesn't bear any resemblance to final sold prices...take a look here

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In my area, high demand and lack of supply in desirable hotspots continues to drive up prices to hyperbolic levels. Low interest rates thanks to Carney have truly shafted us. I despair.

Edited by Conquistador

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, lostinessex said:

Man, will this madness ever stop, or at least slow down?

Doesn't feel like it.

Plus I reckon we will see a massive Tory majority and that will be hailed as good news for the housing market. And that's good news in a "hurrah! houses will get even more insanely expensive" way. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Conquistador said:

In my area, high demand and lack of supply in desirable hotspots continues to drive up prices to hyperbolic levels. Low interest rates thanks to Carney have truly shafted us. I despair.

Where's your area?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   36 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.