Shoppers cut back as inflation kicks in - and top Bank of England official says it will get worse

[Fairyland]

DT: 

Shoppers cut back as inflation kicks in - and top Bank of England official says it will get worse

Quote

Retail sales are falling at the fastest pace in seven years as higher prices put an end to the shopping frenzy of the past year - and inflation has only just begun to kick in, a top Bank of England policymaker has warned.

Sales volumes fell by 1.4pc in the first quarter of the year, one of the biggest drops since 2010.

 

Wages can't go up if were to survive global competition. Rising inflation can't be ignored. Something has to given in. Will it be HPI/BTL ?

 

Edited April 22, 2017 by Fairyland

[billybong]

They manage to wash their hands of responsibility for the problem yet are responsible for keeping it under control and at the same time they rub salt in the wound of the consequences of their failure.

The sooner the BoE is relieved of the job the better.  Today would not be too early.

Quote

The Bank of England predicts inflation will rise to 2.75pc later this year, and Mr Saunders thinks it could rise substantially further.

“With the average levels of sterling and commodity prices over the last few weeks, I would not be surprised if CPI inflation reaches 3pc later this year or early next,” he said in a speech to small businesses.

That plus Hammond bragging in the article about the record employment figures suggests that interest rates must go up to meet the remit - that is unless they're going to be even more totally corrupt and fraudulent than usual.

 

Quote

Speaking on the sidelines of the IMF spring meeting in Washington, Philip Hammond said: "We don't take too much notice of monthly retail data, they tend to be pretty volatile. The key thing is consumer confidence remains strong, and it remains strong, because we have record levels of employment." 

 

Edited April 22, 2017 by billybong

[billybong]

.

Quote

Mr Hammond also said the inflation, which is expected to rise further in the coming months, would be a "one-off phenomenon" and would pass through the economy.

and how often do these "one-off phenomenon" things happen. Pretty regularly and all too often.

Hammond is just another flop who should be given his marching orders.

[winkie]

Maybe people are learning to do things not only differently but better....needs must, do you think people feel worse if they are not spending/wasting money always shopping/buying products and services?....paying for stuff and for services that they can do or learn to do for themselves or for less.....can work out to be more beneficial in many ways....everything is out there if ask and look.

[“Nasty Piece of work”]

1 hour ago, billybong said:Hammond is just another flop who should be given his marching orders.

Worse than a flop,  Carney and Hammond should go.

[btd1981]

Definitely Carney.

With all of this talk of automation, even I could program a replacement for him using an Excel spreadsheet.

[“Nasty Piece of work”]

A spreadsheet would be a lot more proficient.

[winkie]

Quote

Philip Hammond said: "We don't take too much notice of monthly retail data, they tend to be pretty volatile. The key thing is consumer confidence remains strong, and it remains strong, because we have record levels of employment."

What does 'employment' mean?.........it is not numbers employed, it is the high numbers that record levels that earn very little, seeing their wages being eroded by inflation, not dissimilar to the savers seeing their savings being eroded by inflation......only debt is being allowed to be eroded.....not hard work for the low paid and savings.....killing debt and increasing borrowing by lowering interest rates is the priority.......you couldn't make it up.

[Futuroid]

2 hours ago, winkie said:

Maybe people are learning to do things not only differently but better....needs must, do you think people feel worse if they are not spending/wasting money always shopping/buying products and services?....paying for stuff and for services that they can do or learn to do for themselves or for less.....can work out to be more beneficial in many ways....everything is out there if ask and look.

All very good, but not really practical when the basis of your economy is consumption of both good and services!

I'm not saying that's right, but if you started last year (and we didn't) aren't going to change it before the end of the next decade at the very earliest.

I know, perhaps we can export wishful thinking... at last, something the UK economy can excel at. 

[winkie]

9 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

All very good, but not really practical when the basis of your economy is consumption of both good and services!

I'm not saying that's right, but if you started last year (and we didn't) aren't going to change it before the end of the next decade at the very earliest.

I know, perhaps we can export wishful thinking... at last, something the UK economy can excel at. 

People can and do change things......"you paid what, how much?".....what a fool, you know you could have gone there, done this, made that, shared with so and so.....

[Futuroid]

25 minutes ago, winkie said:

People can and do change things......"you paid what, how much?".....what a fool, you know you could have gone there, done this, made that, shared with so and so.....

Of course, surely that is the point this article is making. But lower margins for retailers simply means lower profits and a lower tax take for the Treasury. 

That would be OK if the UK didn't have a massive number of older people who all need to be cared for and given medication.

[council dweller]

Quote

You are not wrong winkie....

For me it comes with age. Suddenly you realise that you don't need to eat three meals per day....and 20 pairs of shoes is enough etc.

 

[reddog]

Shops seemed quite quiet over Easter, but i think people are getting more strategic, splurging on one thing, but cutting back on other things that aren't so important to them (a good example in m&s food section being rammed, while the clothes section is quiet)

 

I agree with the sentiment that most people would actually benefit from cutting consumption, but many jobs are reliant on people buying the latest crap.....There again consuming from money you don't have has to stop in the end.

Edited April 22, 2017 by reddog

[interestrateripoff]

Did they say they would keep interest rates low to keep inflation up?

[zugzwang]

I believe the economy is at stall speed and would have been in recession already were it not for last August's QE. But the BoE can't print any more for fear of another run on the pound which leaves only one recourse to keep the economy growing - increased public spending. Now a spending u-turn at this juncture would have been an almighty political embarrassment, given the years that they've spent talking up the false narrative of recovery through austerity, an admission of failure, and potentially a massive vote loser. Hence the reason for bringing forward the GE. It will give the Tories an opportunity to tear up the timetable for a balanced budget again, just as they did in 2012, two years into the last parliament, and the freedom to spend spend spend.

[Blod]

6 hours ago, winkie said:

What does 'employment' mean?.........it is not numbers employed, it is the high numbers that record levels that earn very little, seeing their wages being eroded by inflation, not dissimilar to the savers seeing their savings being eroded by inflation......only debt is being allowed to be eroded.....not hard work for the low paid and savings.....killing debt and increasing borrowing by lowering interest rates is the priority.......you couldn't make it up.

Just recently I heard that only half the employed earn enough to pay any income tax at all. I can't remember where that figure comes from but if true would explain their fear of inflation. The drop in retail sales will now pickup. 

[Futuroid]

8 hours ago, Blod said:

Just recently I heard that only half the employed earn enough to pay any income tax at all. I can't remember where that figure comes from but if true would explain their fear of inflation. The drop in retail sales will now pickup. 

Nearly half of Britons pay no income tax as burden on rich increases

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/26/nearly-half-of-britons-pay-no-income-tax-as-burden-on-rich-incre/

In some ways this is intentional and a result of Tory policy. The UK personal tax threshold has been rising steadily since 2010 to ensure the poorest workers keep more of their earnings. I know a couple of working Mums who stop work when they are hitting that threshold as they would rather have the time with their kids and the marginal gains past £10K are tiny.

[winkie]

Anyone earning ~£12k should not be paying income tax, they pay tax via what they purchase is VAT and other related purchase taxes, car, parking,insurance,fuel taxes etc......even then the low paid pay a higher percentage of their income on taxes than those that earn far more.....what about those that are given large amounts of money say by inheritance of a property/investments, live from trust funds, or those that a large proportion of their income is made up of tax free expenses, or collect rent money they can live from that ....We have got to the point where work no longer pays because very many people will not be able to escape the trap of low pay because there is nowhere to progress to, in dead end jobs or they hold no assets or capital to supplement their income....and therefore they or their descendants have no hope in ever getting any wealthier.......for many rich, their wages are the pin money, their power, their ego, their sense of self worth and importance.......they don't need to work, they want to work.

[winkie]

14 hours ago, Blod said:

Just recently I heard that only half the employed earn enough to pay any income tax at all. I can't remember where that figure comes from but if true would explain their fear of inflation. The drop in retail sales will now pickup. 

.....can't disagree with that, but not only employed, but the self-employed, casual workers, non working and pensioners......does anyone think they could borrow to spend to keep the plates spinning?

[Futuroid]

5 hours ago, winkie said:

Anyone earning ~£12k should not be paying income tax

100% agree. Taxing income from work always seemed the wrong way to go about things. 

[maverick73]

Markets are driven by sentiment. in times of uncertainty we all become cautious purchasers... Im sure the press will add to the doom and gloom... doesn't matter what credit is being offered... like in 1998, 2003, 2008, 2013...... here we go again.... 

[winkie]

Sentiment means that when people no longer see their homes as a cash cow they are more reluctant to do improvements to it, decorate or extend....they store their cash for the rainy day when cash becomes more valued than gold bath taps and a granite worktop.

[durhamborn]

8 hours ago, Futuroid said:

Nearly half of Britons pay no income tax as burden on rich increases

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/26/nearly-half-of-britons-pay-no-income-tax-as-burden-on-rich-incre/

In some ways this is intentional and a result of Tory policy. The UK personal tax threshold has been rising steadily since 2010 to ensure the poorest workers keep more of their earnings. I know a couple of working Mums who stop work when they are hitting that threshold as they would rather have the time with their kids and the marginal gains past £10K are tiny.

This is me.I stop work (self employed) once i earn the tax allowance near enough,i actually go over by a thousand or so (its cheaper to pay a bit of tax rather than storage space for my goods).I also get some tax free income from dividends within an ISA.My partner is doing the same,or will be as she keeps dropping days.We used to earn around £70k between us and pay shed loads of tax.Not now.We avoid VAT as well mostly by buying on Gumtree etc and with the extra time doing jobs myself.Food bill has come down to £35 a week thanks to the free time to cook from scratch every meal.Healthy,much better quality as well.Il never work or earn over the tax allowance again.I dont need anything the extra money would buy.Never been happier earning the least iv ever earned.I pretty much retired at 39 as i only do around 10 hours a week on average over the year.The more the government handed to scroungers and rentiers the less i did and paid.The worry is that the tax take is collapsing because there is no point working.They should deal with it by cutting spending,but taxing is a lot easier for them.

[winkie]

11 minutes ago, durhamborn said:

This is me.I stop work (self employed) once i earn the tax allowance near enough,i actually go over by a thousand or so (its cheaper to pay a bit of tax rather than storage space for my goods).I also get some tax free income from dividends within an ISA.My partner is doing the same,or will be as she keeps dropping days.We used to earn around £70k between us and pay shed loads of tax.Not now.We avoid VAT as well mostly by buying on Gumtree etc and with the extra time doing jobs myself.Food bill has come down to £35 a week thanks to the free time to cook from scratch every meal.Healthy,much better quality as well.Il never work or earn over the tax allowance again.I dont need anything the extra money would buy.Never been happier earning the least iv ever earned.I pretty much retired at 39 as i only do around 10 hours a week on average over the year.The more the government handed to scroungers and rentiers the less i did and paid.The worry is that the tax take is collapsing because there is no point working.They should deal with it by cutting spending,but taxing is a lot easier for them.

Good for you :-)......avoid tax by not earning enough so they can tax it and spending it wisely......

[nothernsoul]

Just seen a short soundbite on news at ten with damian green promising tories will cap profits/prices of utilitility companies. When inflation starts to bite hard we will see more of this, a variety of populist policies to take the some of the edge off while avoiding raising rates.