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crashmonitor

Nottingham hits 54% sold on rightmove.

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The current stat on rightmove is 2826 for sale from a stock of 6109. I am over in Nottingahm today and I noticed a 100% strike rate on a rough council estate in Stabbo (Stapleford). you can literally sell anything at the moment.

The good news is that the ease of selling hasn't really translated into higher prices.

25 miles north in the Peak district zoopla says prices are down 1.6% this year, up 18% since 2012 and up 10% since 2006. Incidently the strike rate for a radius around my village is currently 38%...that's the highest since 1988. It managed about 30% during Brown's tripling.

It's weird, houses sell easily, but no price rises Cambridge style.

Anybody else seeing this in their area. Houses selling, no price rises.

Edited by crashmonitor

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3 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

The current stat on rightmove is 2826 for sale from a stock of 6109. I am over in Nottingahm today and I noticed a 100% strike rate on a rough council estate in Stabbo (Stapleford). you can literally sell anything at the moment.

The good news is that the ease of selling hasn't really translated into higher prices.

25 miles north in the Peak district zoopla says prices are down 1.6% this year, up 18% since 2012 and up 10% since 2006. Incidently the strike rate for a radius around my village is currently 38%...that's the highest since 1988. It managed about 30% during Brown's tripling.

It's weird, houses sell easily, but no price rises Cambridge style.

Anybody else seeing this in their area. Houses selling, no price rises.

Sold on thesign, or Sold transacted?

MMR computer says No.

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5 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Sold on thesign, or Sold transacted?

MMR computer says No.

They are selling spyguy... if some fall through it has always been thus. The EA tricks might be the same as they always were but they managed strike rates of 15% in recent years during the struggle since 2006. Tricks or not 54% is astonishing, something has changed. but it hasn't translated into price rises; surprising, but good.

 

Edited by crashmonitor

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16 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

The current stat on rightmove is 2826 for sale from a stock of 6109. I am over in Nottingahm today and I noticed a 100% strike rate on a rough council estate in Stabbo (Stapleford). you can literally sell anything at the moment.

The good news is that the ease of selling hasn't really translated into higher prices.

25 miles north in the Peak district zoopla says prices are down 1.6% this year, up 18% since 2012 and up 10% since 2006. Incidently the strike rate for a radius around my village is currently 38%...that's the highest since 1988. It managed about 30% during Brown's tripling.

It's weird, houses sell easily, but no price rises Cambridge style.

Anybody else seeing this in their area. Houses selling, no price rises.

Leicester is similar,loads of SSTC,just not feeding into transactions.Basically, a lot of chains are in limbo,people being unable to complete.

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1 minute ago, crashmonitor said:

They are selling JNS... if some fall through it has always been thus. The EA tricks might be the same as they always were but they managed strike rates of 15% in recent years during the struggle since 2006. Tricks or not 54% is astonishing, something has changed.

Desperate to put Sold up.

Bad strategy as a place gets a bad smell soon as Sold goes back to For Sale.

And it pisses off the vendor - xyz are useless.

 

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Tbf we are taking the zenith of the ripple. Running stats for London it's imploding and further north it's still untouched by activity. I'd just got used tio a market for the l;ast decade which was a case of hunt the sold sign.

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12 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

They are selling spyguy... if some fall through it has always been thus. The EA tricks might be the same as they always were but they managed strike rates of 15% in recent years during the struggle since 2006. Tricks or not 54% is astonishing, something has changed. but it hasn't translated into price rises; surprising, but good.

 

It'll be four months before we really know but it's been like this for months in Leicester and yet transactions are historically subdued.We'll reassess in August and see if you're right.

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6 minutes ago, Sancho Panza said:

It'll be four months before we really know but it's been like this for months in Leicester and yet transactions are historically subdued.We'll reassess in August and see if you're right.

But will it show up.........we could be talking 54 sold out of 100 as opposed to 54 sold out of 250. Surely the strike rate is a result of bombed out inventories. ( an exageration of the numbers to illustrate the point)

Edited by crashmonitor

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So what are you saying the houses shift but the prices don't go up?

 

I had 4 years working there between 2002-2004 then 2006-2008.  In the 2002-2004 I had to put up with people on a daily basis boasting how they had bought a place usually in somewhere like westbridgeford or the lace market and already the value had shot up by x percent.  The thing is those places are now the same value or lower than they were in 2004.

Overall i had quite a good laugh in Nottingham, especially in my 2nd period there, mainly due to me still being youngish and working with youngish people.  Not sure i would want to live there long term, and some of the areas are pretty grim.

 

 

(Edit: just checked out the price and west bridgeford places much have gone up quite a bit in the last 3 or 4 years, but the lace market is well down)

Edited by reddog

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I think what is happening where I live is, although less properties are selling; because the stock is now so limited (there's probably less than half the amount of properties being listed compared to a few months ago) there's proportionally more houses selling (as a percentage of the available stock).

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I can sell shares in seconds whenever the market is open, whether the price is falling or rising. 

The relationship between liquidity and price is complicated, and i'd expect high liquidity to both prevent and enable price falls, depending on the wider circumstances. 

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Also, as I've mentioned elsewhere, another trick by EA's is to leave properties showing on Rightmove as SSTC for a long time (3 months or more) after the transaction has been completed.

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The whole country is on pause. Each month, government manipulation will be conjured up, gift wrapped and presented to the people.

The people will open the presents, find its filled with pooh. Although the people know it's pooh, they will swallow it. B)

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22 hours ago, spyguy said:

Sold on thesign, or Sold transacted?

MMR computer says No.

MMR computer more likely says No for 25 years  No for 28 years, Yes for 30 something years. It's all about lowering the monthly payment to increase the overall mortgage interest.

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5 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

MMR computer more likely says No for 25 years  No for 28 years, Yes for 30 something years. It's all about lowering the monthly payment to increase the overall mortgage interest.

Then you run into bring 40 to save yhe deposit. Hsbc will not give you a mortgage yhats still going at retirement.

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22 hours ago, crashmonitor said:

They are selling spyguy... if some fall through it has always been thus. The EA tricks might be the same as they always were but they managed strike rates of 15% in recent years during the struggle since 2006. Tricks or not 54% is astonishing, something has changed. but it hasn't translated into price rises; surprising, but good.

 

Here in Cheshire something happened this week that I haven't seen in ages, the rightmove email had one new to the market that had already gone SSTC. Earlier in the week another went under offer in a day. It's now 42% SSTC which is the highest I've ever noticed. Not far from me someone is kite flying at 100k more than the highest ever sold price. One like that makes the others look "cheap" so now they are all edging up. 

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6 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Then you run into bring 40 to save yhe deposit. Hsbc will not give you a mortgage yhats still going at retirement.

Says no HSBC age limit here but after 75 reviewed on an individual basis. Funny how the banks are lifting the age, coinciding with since MMR came in isn't it? 

http://www.standardlife.co.uk/c1/news-and-blog/mortgage-age-limits-set-to-meet-evolving-wants/

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1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

Says no HSBC age limit here but after 75 reviewed on an individual basis. Funny how the banks are lifting the age, coinciding with since MMR came in isn't it? 

http://www.standardlife.co.uk/c1/news-and-blog/mortgage-age-limits-set-to-meet-evolving-wants/

Hmm.

They will considere.. weve considered, answer No.

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I have a friend in Wokingham whose house I go to once every few weeks. The sold signs in that street don't change from month to month, they don't go back to for sale but they don't get taken down either. Suspect endless delays from non-moving chains are the reason.

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4 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

I have a friend in Wokingham whose house I go to once every few weeks. The sold signs in that street don't change from month to month, they don't go back to for sale but they don't get taken down either. Suspect endless delays from non-moving chains are the reason.

Ill repeat my m4 thames valley thinking.

Not only are the houses out of local reach but no jobs are moving to the m4 corridor.

Its dead. The high paying software jobs have gone to london.

M4 corridor has too much congestion to make commuting viable now.

The wloo train link is too slow.

All thats left is a collection of admin staff whove all got jobs as TAs. And skilless middle managers.

The finance jobs are all being automated at a rapid clip.

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Just now, spyguy said:

Ill repeat my m4 thames valley thinking.

Not only are the houses out of local reach but no jobs are moving to the m4 corridor.

Its dead. The high paying software jobs have gone to london.

M4 corridor has too much congestion to make commuting viable now.

The wloo train link is too slow.

All thats left is a collection of admin staff whove all got jobs as TAs. And skilless middle managers.

The finance jobs are all being automated at a rapid clip.

Unfortunately 100 percent true in every respect. That train to Waterloo drives me absolutely mad it's less than 30 miles but the journey is slightly over an hour chuntering along. Traffic is mental as well. The jobs are still sort of here but nothing like they were and rapidly disappearing. Finance jobs are being automated or sent to Poland. Some very nice houses though which I am hoping one day to pick up on the cheap when local wages have thrown in the towel.

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1 minute ago, Funn3r said:

Unfortunately 100 percent true in every respect. That train to Waterloo drives me absolutely mad it's less than 30 miles but the journey is slightly over an hour chuntering along. Traffic is mental as well. The jobs are still sort of here but nothing like they were and rapidly disappearing. Finance jobs are being automated or sent to Poland. Some very nice houses though which I am hoping one day to pick up on the cheap when local wages have thrown in the towel.

I know.

I lived in w'ham for 6 months. Left as it was too boring.

I looked on the map and thought train will whizz in in 30 minutes.

Trundle trundle... You can cycle in quicker ffs.

I can see what the appeal was. Reading too vibrant - its worse than bradford now.

Brackell too london sink estate.

20 years ago, you could whizz 50 miles east or west in under an hour, giving you a pick of jobs from west london to oxford. Now, talking to someone, youll get to cemetry junction or slough.

The jobs really have gone. I never hear from any company in the m4 corridor now. 20 yars ago, i was always travelling to rdg, swindon, gford, etc to see new comoanies. Now i goto london or the north.

 

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1 hour ago, nome said:

Also, as I've mentioned elsewhere, another trick by EA's is to leave properties showing on Rightmove as SSTC for a long time (3 months or more) after the transaction has been completed.

These tricks have always taken place but if you compare one area with another or one year with another you have a reliable barometer.

Middlesborough can only manage a strike rate of 23% currently, that makes sense the properties are massively under the 2007 peak and the ripple has only managed to get to about Sheffield/ Manchester. No reason to suspect that Middlesborough estate agents are more saintly than anywhere else.

As I previously mentioned, I still am not seeing the massive rises reported in the Home Counties when the ripple was washing over those areas in the last few years ( for my area falls over the ladt year according to Zoopla).May be a lagging factor, but it's interesting how such strong sales ratios ( highest I have seen since the crash) aren't translating into price rises yet.

Edited by crashmonitor

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I live in Nottingham have been tracking prices for ages.

 

Wollaton has gone up significantly in price over the last 12 months ( i know this because we are looking to buy here soon and am getting pi**** off with 40%+ rises in just a few months!) and anything remotely decent in fernwood catchment is selling for any money.

 

In other areas there are some kite flying prices but also seeing a lot of reductions.

 

I suspect the problem as alluded to before is chains are incomplete. In nottingham as everywhere there is a chronic shortage of anywhere decent so very little choice but from what i've seen i don't think there is a sudden mad frenzy of london money pouring in.

 

Interesting as the statistic is what might be more interesting is a summary showing

1) date property went on the market

2) date reduced (if applciable)

3) date sold (if applicable)

4) time period between date sold and present date

5) time period between date sold and date completion

i don't know if anything like that exists at all or whether it would be a manual exercise.

that way we can understand better whether stuff is just sitting there in unformed chains or whether something else is going on.

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