Theresa May | Statement at 11:15am

[spyguy]

1 minute ago, Futuroid said:

We'll see tomorrow, shall we?

Yep.

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

3 hours ago, Futuroid said:

Dude, stop reading ZeroCred and Alex Jones - the chances of France leaving the EU are wafer thin.

Waaaafer theeeeen?

 

I think you're right. The cheese-eating surrender monkeys don't have the balls. Theres only 2 countries in Europe big enough to matter with the balls. The UK and Germany.

[Maynardgravy]

On 5/5/2017 at 10:32 PM, Dave Beans said:

A very interesting read...

https://www.lrb.co.uk/v39/n06/david-runciman/do-your-homework

Great read that. Bearing in mid what's just happened with Juncker her ability to hold a grudge might come in to play.

[Futuroid]

9 hours ago, 24 year mortgage 8itch said:

Waaaafer theeeeen?

Indeed - that single wafer thin mint pushed me over the edge. 

In any case, France won't have to leave the EU. I am informed the EU is going to collapse.

[Toast]

On 05/05/2017 at 10:32 PM, Dave Beans said:

A very interesting read...

https://www.lrb.co.uk/v39/n06/david-runciman/do-your-homework

Let me pull out two brief quotes from a long article:

 

"May didn’t do negotiation; in the words of Eric Pickles, one of her cabinet colleagues, she is not a ‘transactional’ politician."

"Her time in the coalition was remarkable for the number of bitter personal disputes she had with fellow ministers."

 

This piece makes the case that May takes positions (sometimes after careful deliberation, sometimes because she inherited them), and then stubbornly tries to stick to them, regardless of the damage to personal relationships, or indeed whether they turn out to be sensible in the light of future events. There is mention of her time as home secretary, and her inability to bring down immigration numbers -- however, the implication is that that wasn't for want of trying.

Thus two notable things from my reading:

(1) her list of personal animosities against other party members. She comes across as someone who, once slighted, will never forgive. This threatens a gradual process of attrition in her relationships with colleagues, and thus increasing isolation, unless she can bring in fresh blood as fast as she bleeds out the old.

(2) Strangely for a politician ... believe what she promises; or, at least, believe that she will drive herself onto the rocks in the attempt to deliver it.

[Dorkins]

13 hours ago, Futuroid said:

Dude, stop reading ZeroCred and Alex Jones - the chances of France leaving the EU are wafer thin.

Corbyn wasn't expected to win the Labour leadership, Trump wasn't expected to win the presidency, the Brexit referendum was expected to give a remain result etc etc.

Dude, stop reading the Economist - the political rulebook is being ripped up all over the developed world.

Edited May 7, 2017 by Dorkins

[spyguy]

9 minutes ago, Toast said:

Let me pull out two brief quotes from a long article:

 

"May didn’t do negotiation; in the words of Eric Pickles, one of her cabinet colleagues, she is not a ‘transactional’ politician."

"Her time in the coalition was remarkable for the number of bitter personal disputes she had with fellow ministers."

 

This piece makes the case that May takes positions (sometimes after careful deliberation, sometimes because she inherited them), and then stubbornly tries to stick to them, regardless of the damage to personal relationships, or indeed whether they turn out to be sensible in the light of future events. There is mention of her time as home secretary, and her inability to bring down immigration numbers -- however, the implication is that that wasn't for want of trying.

Thus two notable things from my reading:

(1) her list of personal animosities against other party members. She comes across as someone who, once slighted, will never forgive. This threatens a gradual process of attrition in her relationships with colleagues, and thus increasing isolation, unless she can bring in fresh blood as fast as she bleeds out the old.

(2) Strangely for a politician ... believe what she promises; or, at least, believe that she will drive herself onto the rocks in the attempt to deliver it.

The migration + May thing is curious.

One, she hardly had enough time to turn around the total mess left by Labour.

The refulsal to remove students from the figures points to holding what little power she had. Persoanlly, I wold leave HE students out of the mirants numbers. Id not allow any FE students to come to theUK full stop - FE students is a scam.

People keep saying 'No she wont' whne I say she'll stop benefits to non nationals. I think she will.

There's no need to pay benefits, so dont - save money. Thne see how mnay EErs can survive earnin their keep.

Again, the EEer migrants satts look like benefit arbitration rather than wage arbitration. They bring their families over - thats benefit arb. If it wage youd only see male EErs living in caravans a la Aufwiedershen Pet.

[Futuroid]

20 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Corbyn wasn't expected to win the Labour leadership, Trump wasn't expected to win the presidency, the Brexit referendum was expected to give a remain result etc etc.

Dude, stop reading the Economist - the political rulebook is being ripped up all over the developed world.

Yeah, and the alt right movement was going to take over Austria, the Netherlands and now France. 

[Toast]

15 minutes ago, spyguy said:

People keep saying 'No she wont' when I say she'll stop benefits to non nationals. I think she will.

Do you know if she has said anything on the subject (I don't follow the political news at all closely)?

[Futuroid]

 

34 minutes ago, Toast said:

Let me pull out two brief quotes from a long article:

 

"May didn’t do negotiation; in the words of Eric Pickles, one of her cabinet colleagues, she is not a ‘transactional’ politician."

"Her time in the coalition was remarkable for the number of bitter personal disputes she had with fellow ministers."

 

This piece makes the case that May takes positions (sometimes after careful deliberation, sometimes because she inherited them), and then stubbornly tries to stick to them, regardless of the damage to personal relationships, or indeed whether they turn out to be sensible in the light of future events. There is mention of her time as home secretary, and her inability to bring down immigration numbers -- however, the implication is that that wasn't for want of trying.

Thus two notable things from my reading:

(1) her list of personal animosities against other party members. She comes across as someone who, once slighted, will never forgive. This threatens a gradual process of attrition in her relationships with colleagues, and thus increasing isolation, unless she can bring in fresh blood as fast as she bleeds out the old.

(2) Strangely for a politician ... believe what she promises; or, at least, believe that she will drive herself onto the rocks in the attempt to deliver it.

I think her complete lack of ability to deliver on her core mission (lowering net migration to below 100,000) as home secretary kind of disproves (2).

And before anyone blames the EU - both then and now, the majority of UK immigration was coming from outside the EU and the government had and still has complete control of that.

A "no compromises" approach sounds perfect for getting a deal with the EU 

[spyguy]

2 hours ago, Toast said:

Do you know if she has said anything on the subject (I don't follow the political news at all closely)?

Implied.

Tax credits to non uk nationals cost a fortune.

All my polling on brexit pointed to people fed upwith EEers - inc. Non EE EUers!

If theres a common complaint its the number of migrants in the UK. People are fed up. 

May needs to make Brexit a success. The first part will be shoring up the uk finances i.emoving quick on reducing deficit which is still a shocking 7% . Less than the unbelivable 12% in 2010 mind.

Tax credits are going. Theyll go first for mnon nationals.

[spyguy]

2 hours ago, Futuroid said:

 

I think her complete lack of ability to deliver on her core mission (lowering net migration to below 100,000) as home secretary kind of disproves (2).

And before anyone blames the EU - both then and now, the majority of UK immigration was coming from outside the EU and the government had and still has complete control of that.

A "no compromises" approach sounds perfect for getting a deal with the EU 

No. Shed have been veto by camoron doing his being nice routine.

[mrtickle]

2 hours ago, spyguy said:

Implied.

Tax credits to non uk nationals cost a fortune.

All my polling on brexit pointed to people fed upwith EEers - inc. Non EE EUers!

If theres a common complaint its the number of migrants in the UK. People are fed up. 

May needs to make Brexit a success. The first part will be shoring up the uk finances i.emoving quick on reducing deficit which is still a shocking 7% . Less than the unbelivable 12% in 2010 mind.

Tax credits are going. Theyll go first for mnon nationals.

Hope so. Wasn't it originally going to be 2013 that Universal Credit roll-out would be completed?

 

[zugzwang]

11 hours ago, spyguy said:

Implied.

Tax credits to non uk nationals cost a fortune.

All my polling on brexit pointed to people fed upwith EEers - inc. Non EE EUers!

If theres a common complaint its the number of migrants in the UK. People are fed up. 

May needs to make Brexit a success. The first part will be shoring up the uk finances i.emoving quick on reducing deficit which is still a shocking 7% . Less than the unbelivable 12% in 2010 mind.

Tax credits are going. Theyll go first for mnon nationals.

Reducing the deficit won't shore up UK finances. The economy's practically in recession as it is. If anything the deficit is going back up - massively so, if the housing market tanks this year.

Likewise, tax credits. Not much to be gained financially vs the prospect of significantly higher unemployment if they're withdrawn. Except for some minor tinkering to distract Mail and Telegraph readers from the fact that the immigration numbers aren't coming down, nothing is going to happen.

[spyguy]

5 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Reducing the deficit won't shore up UK finances. The economy's practically in recession as it is. If anything the deficit is going back up - massively so, if the housing market tanks this year.

Likewise, tax credits. Not much to be gained financially vs the prospect of significantly higher unemployment if they're withdrawn. Except for some minor tinkering to distract Mail and Telegraph readers from the fact that the immigration numbers aren't coming down, nothing is going to happen.

No.

I think tax credits are a major cause to the lack of growth.

Tax credits drag people into part-time. low skilled, low productive jobs and make up the difference with benefits.

This causes a massive drag on productivity.

You see this in the lack of people working OT or extra hours - Not worth it, taxed away.

[Blod]

38 minutes ago, spyguy said:

No.

I think tax credits are a major cause to the lack of growth.

Tax credits drag people into part-time. low skilled, low productive jobs and make up the difference with benefits.

This causes a massive drag on productivity.

You see this in the lack of people working OT or extra hours - Not worth it, taxed away.

The other effect I constantly see is people working off the books. They shouldn't be but the natural draw of the extra cash is too strong. TCs create a mindset that it's ok to game the system. They have cause massive damage.

[spyguy]

Just now, Blod said:

The other effect I constantly see is people working off the books. They shouldn't be but the natural draw of the extra cash is too strong. TCs create a mindset that it's ok to game the system. They have cause massive damage.

True.

Brown has fcked up the economy and peoples lives on so many different ways.

At the mo Im dealing my a colleague of my partner who's got into refusing to work over 16h. hr work week is 5 x 3h after shifts as a TA plus one dinner time.

Shes 34 and never held down a full-time job.

Ive stressed to her that it might be a good idea to be looking to put etra hours as when th TC changes come - and they will - she needs to get herself in the front of the quue as all those 40h jobs turned into 5 x 16h jobs suddenly shrink to 1 40h job again.

[Blod]

58 minutes ago, spyguy said:

True.

Brown has fcked up the economy and peoples lives on so many different ways.

At the mo Im dealing my a colleague of my partner who's got into refusing to work over 16h. hr work week is 5 x 3h after shifts as a TA plus one dinner time.

Shes 34 and never held down a full-time job.

Ive stressed to her that it might be a good idea to be looking to put etra hours as when th TC changes come - and they will - she needs to get herself in the front of the quue as all those 40h jobs turned into 5 x 16h jobs suddenly shrink to 1 40h job again.

Goes to show that though Corbyn has done a good job destroying Labour, his predecessor did more harm. The left and Labour are riddled with destructive Marxist. They urge compassion whilst refusing to consider the negative long term out come of policy.

[spyguy]

Just now, Blod said:

Goes to show that though Corbyn has done a good job destroying Labour, his predecessor did more harm. The left and Labour are riddled with destructive Marxist. They urge compassion whilst refusing to consider the negative long term out come of policy.

Not really.

After Brown, all that is left is a core of old Marxists, who Brown never felt threatened by, and some new MPs from the 2010 batch,

The reason Jezza in place is Brown destroyed any threat to him. Jezza was not a threat - who'd vote for Jezza McDonel + Abbot?

 

[spyguy]

5 minutes ago, Blod said:

Goes to show that though Corbyn has done a good job destroying Labour, his predecessor did more harm. The left and Labour are riddled with destructive Marxist. They urge compassion whilst refusing to consider the negative long term out come of policy.

The thing I find really fcking annoying (as a blue collary Labour type) is Jezza banging on about raising taxes.

You have 30%+ of working age people not fckign working, drawing down benefit.

Thats where you need to be concentrating your fcking effort, not droning on about putting 1p on this and that.

spy Labour policy:

- No benefit to non UK nationals.

 

[whitemice]

On 2017-5-6 at 8:45 PM, spyguy said:

I read neither of those.

The chances of France leaving are bumping around 40%.

That comment didn't age well.

[spyguy]

18 minutes ago, whitemice said:

That comment didn't age well.

?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39839349

' Mr Macron won by 66.06% to 33.94% to become, at 39, the country's youngest president. '

There were a lot of spoiled votes. Add those to Le Pens and you are getting towards 50%.

This time they could not vote for her. Next time, who knows?

 

[council dweller]

Well, as someone who relies on 50% of my income from benefits and 50% from my savings I`m interested in what`s going to happen post election...

And yes I`m prepared to vote Tory.

[zugzwang]

1 hour ago, spyguy said:

Not really.

After Brown, all that is left is a core of old Marxists, who Brown never felt threatened by, and some new MPs from the 2010 batch,

The reason Jezza in place is Brown destroyed any threat to him. Jezza was not a threat - who'd vote for Jezza McDonel + Abbot?

 

Marx belongs in the pantheon of great classical economists alongside Smith, Ricardo and Walras. He got a lot wrong (they all did, in different ways) but his insights into the importance of surplus value are as valid today as they ever were. Marx established the profit motive as the essence of capitalism, the Neoclassicals stupidly replaced it with an economy based on barter. The real mystery is not that the Left continues to read him but why the Right doesn't also.

[zugzwang]

9 minutes ago, council dweller said:

Well, as someone who relies on 50% of my income from benefits and 50% from my savings I`m interested in what`s going to happen post election...

And yes I`m prepared to vote Tory.

I'd advise you to take a good look at the Labour manifesto because that's the one the Tories will be using for the most part not their own.