Countdown to leveraged BTL going bust thread

[Bland Unsight]

52 minutes ago, monkeyprojects said:

That's wrong

My view also. I had a pretty good look through the relevant HMRC documents and couldn't find anything to back up the Low Incomes Tax Reform Group website.

[BearlyBegun]

On 16/04/2017 at 11:09 AM, lastlaugh said:

It's alright.  I knew it was a joke. ?

You are quite right.  Most landlords will have the cashflow to ride out S24.  But there is a subset who won't.  The evidence is in the bleating, letter writing, and tenant-tax campaigning.  The subset is certainly small, I would guess less than  10% of landlords.  But this subset control a disproportionate amount of the PRS, I would guess about 30%.  Will this subset going bust move the market?

It's clear from your posts that you don't believe it will.  You use data from the 1970s to support your position.  Fair enough, it's your money.  But your position is just another "HPI forever" position we see on this forum all the time.  Base rates at zero for your lifetime and rents tracking GDP are just an extension of your position.  And let's face it, your position is the common wisdom of the times, there is nothing particularly radical about it.  They're not building any more land, are they!  HPI is a natural phenomenon, and you've set out to ride the wave smartly and efficiently.  Along with 2 million of your colleagues.

But what you seem unwilling to consider is the contrarian position.  It's possible that HPI, in the last 3 decades in general, and since 2000 in particular, is simply an outcome of landlords gaming lending, tax and benefits rules.  Rules that were set up for other purposes, but just happened to enrich landlords.  In this contrarian world, landlords aren't riding the HPI wave.  Landords are the wave.  And the small subset of highly leveraged landlords, controlling a vast amount of properties, is the tsunami.

It's clear that changes to rules that were never set up to enrich landlords are never going to be modified to save landlords.  In fact the opposite is likely.  The penny is dropping that HPI and landlordism is disastrous for both society and the economy.  Landlords can expect more tax, tighter lending, and statutory changes in favour of tenants.  The exact opposite of your position on rates and rents.

Either way, the tsunami is going to recede, and take with it otherwise solvent landlords and homeowners.  The small subset of landlords can and will, by themselves, cause all the damage.  You are betting the farm that S24 won't take you down.  But you are looking through the wrong end of the telescope.  If I was sitting on a portfolio with significant capital gains, I would count my blessings, sell everything now, and do something more useful with my life.

 

 

Great post

[Arpeggio]

8 minutes ago, BearlyBegun said:

Great post

Apart from the bit about doing something useful with their life. I doubt RushRoad is capable of anything skilled or starting a business.

[long time lurking]

2 hours ago, monkeyprojects said:

That's wrong from https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/601624/TC600_Notes_0716_internet.pdf page 15

 

 

Seems that way if they are applying it to child beneffit i would have thought it would apply to all benefits ,it could get very complicated if it`s some but not others    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/changes-to-tax-relief-for-residential-landlords

Quote

These reforms mean that the way taxable income is calculated will change and that may have other implications for some. For example, if you or your partner receive Child Benefit and your income is over £50,000 the High Income Child Benefit Charge may apply

 

[jiltedjen]

interesting, seems as clear as mud to me. 

[Fromage Frais]

On 15/04/2017 at 9:59 PM, maverick73 said:

I doubt war with North Korea would happen, thats just media hype.

Hopefully it is.

However if things are crashing behind the scenes and Trump has already seen how popular successful military action is....

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 minute ago, Fromage Frais said:

Hopefully it is.

However if things are crashing behind the scenes and Trump has already seen how popular successful military action is....

 

Look at London....The crash has been underway for 12 months +  They cannot put a lid on it.  They will ahve to riase IRs now as the US does.  They must surely know there voting demographic ( at the moment ) is the rich home owners....who wont be as rich in 2 years time.

[jiltedjen]

Updated:

September 2017 - 135 days (banks need to assess whole portfolio when remortgaging)

December 2017 - 226 days (for those selling CGT due within 30 days)

April 2018 - 347 days (start to build up even more tax liabilities)

January 2019 - 623 days (last chance to pay 2017/2018 tax bills)

April 2019 - 712 days (start to build up even more tax liabilities)

January 2020 - 987 days (last chance to pay 2018/2019 tax bills)

April 2020 - 1078 days (start to build up even more tax liabilities)

January 2021 - 1353 days (last chance to pay 2019/2018 tax bills)

January 2022 - 1719 days (last chance to pay 2020/2021 tax bills)

[jiltedjen]

Updated:

September 2017 - 134 days (banks need to assess whole portfolio when remortgaging)

December 2017 - 225 days (for those selling CGT due within 30 days)

April 2018 - 346 days (start to build up even more tax liabilities)

January 2019 - 622 days (last chance to pay 2017/2018 tax bills)

April 2019 - 711 days (start to build up even more tax liabilities)

January 2020 - 986 days (last chance to pay 2018/2019 tax bills)

April 2020 - 1077 days (start to build up even more tax liabilities)

January 2021 - 1352 days (last chance to pay 2019/2018 tax bills)

January 2022 - 1718 days (last chance to pay 2020/2021 tax bills)

[jiltedjen]

Updated:

September 2017 - 133 days (banks need to assess whole portfolio when remortgaging)

December 2017 - 224 days (for those selling CGT due within 30 days)

April 2018 - 345 days (start to build up even more tax liabilities)

January 2019 - 621 days (last chance to pay 2017/2018 tax bills)

April 2019 - 710 days (start to build up even more tax liabilities)

January 2020 - 985 days (last chance to pay 2018/2019 tax bills)

April 2020 - 1076 days (start to build up even more tax liabilities)

January 2021 - 1351 days (last chance to pay 2019/2018 tax bills)

January 2022 - 1717 days (last chance to pay 2020/2021 tax bills)

[Bland Unsight]

17 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

Updated:

September 2017 - 133 days (banks need to assess whole portfolio when remortgaging)

December 2017 - 224 days (for those selling CGT due within 30 days)

[snip]

I love this! 

[jiltedjen]

going to be a lot of upset landlords come September time, 'what do you mean you wont let me remortgage at a crazy low rate? what is the SVR anyway?'

'i dont owe any CGT its all been spent on my 'twigs in glass' house portfolio, so its silly for you to ask for money' 

Edited April 20, 2017 by jiltedjen

[CunningPlan]

April 2018 - can no longer let that drafty old hut if its EPC rating is worse than E

 

[Si1]

4 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

going to be a lot of upset landlords come September time, 'what do you mean you wont let me remortgage at a crazy low rate? what is the SVR anyway?'

'i dont owe any CGT its all been spent on my 'twigs in glass' house portfolio, so its silly for you to ask for money' 

I don't owe any cgt it's offset against me mortgage init which i extended to buy a range rover

[AvoidDebt]

Estate agents going bust at same time? 

The changes have all-but killed the market. Estate agents are suffering the most because a lot of the housing market is fuelled by buy-to-let deals. I have heard through the grapevine that many of them are looking to lay off staff as a result of loss of business.

https://www.ftadviser.com/mortgages/2017/04/19/buy-to-let-landlords-under-pressure/

[TheCountOfNowhere]

10 minutes ago, AvoidDebt said:

Estate agents going bust at same time? 

The changes have all-but killed the market. Estate agents are suffering the most because a lot of the housing market is fuelled by buy-to-let deals. I have heard through the grapevine that many of them are looking to lay off staff as a result of loss of business.

https://www.ftadviser.com/mortgages/2017/04/19/buy-to-let-landlords-under-pressure/

There is no down side to throwing the BTLers to the lions.

[jiltedjen]

It's going to be a very lean time for estate agents. plenty have sprung up quickly and will go bust just as quickly.

12-18 months should clear out the weaker players and those left can do more volume selling to FTB's

perhaps we can add the dates when the estate agents announce their profitability? 

Any other changes coming in to play to look forward to? 

 

[long time lurking]

8 minutes ago, AvoidDebt said:

Estate agents going bust at same time? 

The changes have all-but killed the market. Estate agents are suffering the most because a lot of the housing market is fuelled by buy-to-let deals. I have heard through the grapevine that many of them are looking to lay off staff as a result of loss of business.

https://www.ftadviser.com/mortgages/2017/04/19/buy-to-let-landlords-under-pressure/

Wait until they ban charging the tenant letting agent fees and renewals ...it will be fine the landlord will pick up the tab not

 

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 minute ago, jiltedjen said:

It's going to be a very lean time for estate agents. plenty have sprung up quickly and will go bust just as quickly.

 

That was a sign of the 2007 bust coming.....none of them lasted very long.

 

[jiltedjen]

2 minutes ago, long time lurking said:

Wait until they ban charging the tenant letting agent fees and renewals ...it will be fine the landlord will pick up the tab not

 

 

Any ideas of a potential implementation date for this? 

[jiltedjen]

I will add in 

Tenant fees passed onto landlord - 1st December 2017 (estimated date) - 224 Days

 

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 minute ago, jiltedjen said:

I will add in 

Tenant fees passed onto landlord - 1st December 2017 (estimated date) - 224 Days

 

 

I'll add...young people getting angry and going postal.....any day now.

[jiltedjen]

Landlords have to shell out loads to achieve EPC rating or can't let property out - April 2018

add that on also when I get to a real computer

message sent from handheld laughing at to be ruined landlords device 

Edited April 20, 2017 by jiltedjen

[jiltedjen]

Updated:

September 2017 - 133 days (banks need to assess whole portfolio when remortgaging)

December 2017 - 224 days (for those selling CGT due within 30 days) + All estate agent letting fees passed onto landlord

April 2018 - 345 days (start to build up even more tax liabilities) + landlords have to shell out loads to achieve reasonable EPC rating

January 2019 - 621 days (last chance to pay 2017/2018 tax bills)

April 2019 - 710 days (start to build up even more tax liabilities)

January 2020 - 985 days (last chance to pay 2018/2019 tax bills)

April 2020 - 1076 days (start to build up even more tax liabilities)

January 2021 - 1351 days (last chance to pay 2019/2018 tax bills)

January 2022 - 1717 days (last chance to pay 2020/2021 tax bills)

[rantnrave]

Less EAs means less overvaluing to ensure they and not their competitor gets the vendor instruction.