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tokenpunter

3rd stepper wait and see

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Our situation, living in second step property a two bed Flat in Berks with mortgage paid off after 17years and some savings, looking at additional borrowing between £150,000 and £200,000 to upgrade to a very modest 3 bed family home. Partner and I over 40 with newborn baby late in life but very happy! Waiting to see what happens this year, houses not shifting as fast in our area. Hoping for some significant price drops as not keen on another lifetime of mortgage payments. Just don't see how £350 to £400k for  modest semi is justified. Some ex council houses asking for this kind of money.  This market is broken even for home owners with equity to move up!  Anyone in similar position? Wait and see or take the plunge and sign up for another 20 years of debt? Would like to see a 30 or 40% drop

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The house you looked at today, and want to think about until tomorrow. . . might be the same house someone looked at yesterday, and will buy today.

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On Fri Apr 14 2017 at 2:46 PM, tokenpunter said:

Our situation, living in second step property a two bed Flat in Berks with mortgage paid off after 17years and some savings, looking at additional borrowing between £150,000 and £200,000 to upgrade to a very modest 3 bed family home. Partner and I over 40 with newborn baby late in life but very happy! Waiting to see what happens this year, houses not shifting as fast in our area. Hoping for some significant price drops as not keen on another lifetime of mortgage payments. Just don't see how £350 to £400k for  modest semi is justified. Some ex council houses asking for this kind of money.  This market is broken even for home owners with equity to move up!  Anyone in similar position? Wait and see or take the plunge and sign up for another 20 years of debt? Would like to see a 30 or 40% drop

Review your own post and the opinions shared in 2009:

8 years later, was it worth waiting?

The impact to national debt servicing costs from IR rises has, as one poster predicts, already trapped us in the cycle has it not?

Where is Japan now?

Continuing mass immigration accompanied by a rousing export revival is our only hope of achieving escape velocity IMO - and the electorate just won't wear it. Being honest, I won't either as a voter. I'd rather rent in a country that feels a bit like Britain than own in a suburb that looks like a cross between Bratislava, Islamabad and Mogadishu. Or somewhat hypocritically, emigrate.

If Brexit and S24 and actual genuine anti-HPI sentiment can't shock the market, I doubt anything short of a major war will. I expect some drops but it may well be underwhelming.

If there is no serious threat of an end to cheap credit then the next time prices take a knock I may well buy in at whatever price the market sets as it stabilizes. If it's a bear trap then I'm a loser, but so be it.

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On 5/2/2017 at 8:46 PM, disenfranchised said:

Continuing mass immigration [...] is our only hope of achieving escape velocity IMO

Explain that one to me, please?

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On Fri May 05 2017 at 9:25 AM, Locke said:

Explain that one to me, please?

The debt/GDP ratio is only going to be diminished from here by expanding GDP - we do not have the political will to pay down debt by running an austerity  budget in surplus.

We don't seem to have much room to expand GDP per capita so I guess we need to expand the 'capita'

Japan is pretty tight on immigration and has a population that has just tipped over into decline. They have 15 years zombie mode head start and don't look like breaking out of it.

However, I guess increasing the population is pointless if the immigrants are on tax credits working for Amazon, Uber and Deliveroo... it only gets you anywhere if you can put them into wealth creating work & start to address the trade deficit IMO.

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On 5/6/2017 at 0:31 PM, disenfranchised said:

The debt/GDP ratio is only going to be diminished from here by expanding GDP - we do not have the political will to pay down debt by running an austerity  budget in surplus.

We don't seem to have much room to expand GDP per capita so I guess we need to expand the 'capita'

Japan is pretty tight on immigration and has a population that has just tipped over into decline. They have 15 years zombie mode head start and don't look like breaking out of it.

However, I guess increasing the population is pointless if the immigrants are on tax credits working for Amazon, Uber and Deliveroo... it only gets you anywhere if you can put them into wealth creating work & start to address the trade deficit IMO.

 

Taht last point is why I was confused. Immigrant are a huge drain on the country - they cost us about £17billion net every year. Adding more of them is only going to worsen, not improve the situation.

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22 minutes ago, Locke said:

 

Taht last point is why I was confused. Immigrant are a huge drain on the country - they cost us about £17billion net every year. Adding more of them is only going to worsen, not improve the situation.

When you run a budget deficit, the country as a whole is a "drain" though? Not just migrants? The budget deficit is currently £69 billion and foreign born residents are 14% of the population, so all else being equal they should be "draining" us by £10bn not £17bn - ie. immigration isn't working. I never said it was...

"increasing the population is pointless if the immigrants are on tax credits working for Amazon, Uber and Deliveroo"

 

Everything I have seen points to non-EU migrants being a far greater drain than EU migrants. 

If we were honest we'd admit that a great swathe of the non-EU migrants arriving are economically a very bad deal for us, and do something about it.

The £18k earnings required for a spousal visa should be raised immediately, we should reintroduce the rule Labour scrapped that made couples prove marriage wasn't primarily motivated by migration (as it is with many from the Indian subcontinent entering arranged marriages to relatives, particularly Pakistanis), and we should scrap the "human rights" tripe about "right to a family life" which often prevents us deporting people who simply shouldn't be here.

Interestingly one of my best mates is a high earning Indian immigrant who has stronger views than I do on this and believes we should only accept skilled migrants and spouses they can truly support, and thinks what the UK has permitted would be entirely unacceptable in any non-white country not wracked with liberal post colonial guilt and political correctness.

Edited by disenfranchised

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22 minutes ago, disenfranchised said:

When you run a budget deficit, the country as a whole is a "drain" though? Not just migrants? The budget deficit is currently £69 billion and foreign born residents are 14% of the population, so all else being equal they should be "draining" us by £10bn not £17bn - ie. immigration isn't working. I never said it was...

"increasing the population is pointless if the immigrants are on tax credits working for Amazon, Uber and Deliveroo"

 

Everything I have seen points to non-EU migrants being a far greater drain than EU migrants. 

If we were honest we'd admit that a great swathe of the non-EU migrants arriving are economically a very bad deal for us, and do something about it.

The £18k earnings required for a spousal visa should be raised immediately, we should reintroduce the rule Labour scrapped that made couples prove marriage wasn't primarily motivated by migration (as it is with many from the Indian subcontinent entering arranged marriages to relatives, particularly Pakistanis), and we should scrap the "human rights" tripe about "right to a family life" which often prevents us deporting people who simply shouldn't be here.

Interestingly one of my best mates is a high earning Indian immigrant who has stronger views than I do on this and believes we should only accept skilled migrants and spouses they can truly support, and thinks what the UK has permitted would be entirely unacceptable in any non-white country not wracked with liberal post colonial guilt and political correctness.

 

Non-EU cost £16billion net annually, EU ones £1billion net annually.

Simply put a limit on benefits whereby migrants need to have contributed for 5 years in order to be eligible.

 

I'm against government spending/intervention generally, but it is worse to spend native's money on foreigners who have not contributed than it is to spend it on other natives.

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13 hours ago, Locke said:

Simply put a limit on benefits whereby migrants need to have contributed for 5 years

So what do you do about spousal visas that continue to drive a fair chunk of non-EU migration now?

If a UK born person has an arranged marriage to a non-EU spouse, their kids are British, and so the family gets the full whack.

If we dropped any semblance of being PC, we would admit that this is the intention of a lot of arranged marriage - much of it occurring within families, a cultural practice that has intensified for economic reasons.

Back in the press at the weekend

Edited by disenfranchised

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