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Halifax March 2017: 0.0%

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Interesting time for BTL clowns. Read about a BTL scum gloating about his ability to recover the cost of tax bill from the capital growth yesterday. 

So No rent rises, No capital growth, potentially a negative one in few months. still they don't give up? Or it is the few clever ones cashing out whilst their bricks are worth something.

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13 minutes ago, LC1 said:

I suspect the smart money is on the move. But is it enough to turn the trickle into a torrent?

Interesting to see what the BTL politicians have done. I guess they may have started offloading portfolios a while back as they have a heads up on the situation.

I think we'll start seeing people selling off their portfolios - I can imagine the average BTLer would all have waited until the tax changes came in to place to start to sell in order to extract maximum value from their portfolio. I bet they all decide to sell at once, I don't believe they would have the foresight to imagine they will be selling in an over-saturated market.

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29 minutes ago, Bhoy said:

I guess they may have started offloading portfolios a while back as they have a heads up on the situation.

I'm not sure this is a trend yet except among the earliest to exit. From the report:

"The number of properties coming on to the market fell again in February. This was the 12th successive monthly decline; keeping average stock levels on estate agents’ books close to historic lows."

I think we're still seeing properties held back due to low interest rates and a refusal to accept current market prices. Sentiment is changing though and once the MoM figures start feeding through more into the YoY figures, it'll be interest to see where that sentiment goes.

The direction of travel is well established by now. The bull market is long over, props are increasingly flaccid, headwinds are multiplying.

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I love they way they switch between the three indicies (monthly/QTR/YR) in an attempt to keep HPI.

It reminds me of the phoney war before the last crash.

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6 minutes ago, anteos said:

I love they way they switch between the three indicies (monthly/QTR/YR) in an attempt to keep HPI.

It reminds me of the phoney war before the last crash.

Legendary lurking!  :D I reckon until your rash of posting beginning last month you  were at 12 posts in about 12 years. Easily enough to put you up there with the all-time greats.

 

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29 minutes ago, shindigger said:

He was actually Prime Minister of this country.

Hard to believe. The entire Labour fron bench as was) certainly dont seem to believe it. Or are so innumerate that just dont do 'numbers'.

Even worse, he was let near the money from 1997->2017.

Im sure he did not fkcup.

 

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34 minutes ago, shindigger said:

He was actually Prime Minister of this country.

just as amazingly the bloke sitting opposite him also became Prime Minister.  Dave I was never a Remainer Cameron.

Edited by billybong

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52 minutes ago, billybong said:

just as amazingly the bloke sitting opposite him also became Prime Minister.  Dave I was never a Remainer Cameron.

Osbourne, Mandelson, Balls, Brown etc have all attended Bilderberg.

Strangely after everyone got fed up of New Labour/Brown buffon we were promised change with CONservatives & Obama.. but.. nothing changed. 

Funny that. :lol::lol:

Indicators and logic point to towards HPC but they don't let it.. maybe time will tell

Edited by Assume The Opposite

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1 hour ago, billybong said:

just as amazingly the bloke sitting opposite him also became Prime Minister.  Dave I was never a Remainer Cameron.

Not forgetting 'Sir' Jon Cunliffe, Brown's right hand man at the Treasury. Now - incredibly - Deputy Governor of the Bank of England for Financial Stability!

united-kingdoms-chancellor-of-the-excheq

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2 hours ago, Sajid the Taxmeister said:

A positive number, that will magically be "adjusted" next month.  We can't have a negative headline when so many have "invested" in chavtastic BTL.

My first thought was this........ When I read 0.0% I actually thought "Yeh that's probably -0.3% really"

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If you look at page three that 0% figure isn't seasonally adjusted (despite claims that it is on the first page). Wouldn't it be something like -1% if they had seasonally adjusted it?

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On Friday, April 07, 2017 at 1:39 PM, btd1981 said:

Suggested headline: ANNUAL HOUSE PRICE INFLATION AT LOWEST LEVEL SINCE HELP TO BUY SCHEME INTRODUCED

That's an excellent interpretation. It's almost as if part of HTB ended recently...

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On LBC this morning they had Justin Urquhart-Stewart founder of Seven Investment Management . He pointed out these figures and that without 'capital' growth the continuing softening of prices would make it harder still for FTB as they should expect to have to borrow at higher rates. He was very matter of fact, the market had just run out of legs and that housing was for homes and not investing. His comments are probably a good indication that HPC is starting. 

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2 hours ago, Blod said:

On LBC this morning they had Justin Urquhart-Stewart founder of Seven Investment Management . He pointed out these figures and that without 'capital' growth the continuing softening of prices would make it harder still for FTB as they should expect to have to borrow at higher rates. He was very matter of fact, the market had just run out of legs and that housing was for homes and not investing. His comments are probably a good indication that HPC is starting. 

My sad life is such that I thought about this last night. If prices do start to fall, and the banks price this in, will the risk be mitigated by higher interest rates on the loans then?

If so, in my mind this will exacerbate falls (after initial stubbornness).

There are so many parts of this messed up system that only work while price rises are assured, otherwise they break quite quickly...

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1 hour ago, btd1981 said:

My sad life is such that I thought about this last night. If prices do start to fall, and the banks price this in, will the risk be mitigated by higher interest rates on the loans then?

If so, in my mind this will exacerbate falls (after initial stubbornness).

There are so many parts of this messed up system that only work while price rises are assured, otherwise they break quite quickly...

And will govt come up with crazy props?

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