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Tories could lose up to 30 seats to Liberal Democrats at next election, secret polling reveals

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That's at the Liar LibDems coming back (and people still daft enough to vote for them again) not at the Liar Tories losing seats.

Edited by billybong

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Its The Independent.

Ive said it before nd Ill say it again - The Independent shares is journos with The Canary.

Dumb fck opinion from a student jounro.

The Lib Dem will be lucky to retian their current seats.

Sure, the was some support post Breixti but the next GE will be after - or more likely during - the exist procedure. I guess we'll see the public opinion turn very anit EU by then.

 

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I agree, the Conservatives will be losing seats in remain areas. I know lots of Conservatives who plan to switch to the Lib Dems for this election primarily to give Brexit a bloody nose - this also includes me.

Also, as someone who has helped the Conservatives in the past, I find articles like this puzzling.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/22/mansfield-miners-strike-general-election-brexit

The issue with any campaign is where you put your scarce resource, and if you get the swing wrong, you can totally destroy your campaign.

To me Mansfield would seem too optimistic for the Conservatives.

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^ guardian article

Quote

Mick Byrne, on his market stall in Mansfield town centre. ‘I think people have given up on politics. Nothing ever seems to get done.’

It's the Enterprise Economy.

Edited by billybong

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7 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I agree, the Conservatives will be losing seats in remain areas. I know lots of Conservatives who plan to switch to the Lib Dems for this election primarily to give Brexit a bloody nose - this also includes me.

Polling doesn't suggest this. So far, less than 17% see this as a Brexit election, of that 17% only 11% may be Lib Dem supporters and .. . diminishing math. Oh, and large numbers have never heard of Tim Whatsisname. 

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Help me:

I want to stop brexit but I can't vote for anyone who says Jesus is Lord.

I'm a millennial so I'd commit suicide before I voted conservative (actually that may be the same thing).

I like Jezza but suspect he voted for brexit.

No Greenies where I live and Plaid are a joke.

Other than moving to Scotland has anyone got any suggestions??

Ta

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More polling tolling for the Lib Dems.

Nearly all former UKIP voters are switching to Conservative. Farage will not contest seats where there is a Conservative 'Leave' candidate. The collapse of the UKIP vote is massively benefiting Conservatives.

For our Welsh friend here, current polling suggests CON ahead by 10% in Wales  - top party for the first time since 1850.

That Indy article is looking increasingly like wishful thinking.

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3 hours ago, copydude said:

More polling tolling for the Lib Dems.

Nearly all former UKIP voters are switching to Conservative. Farage will not contest seats where there is a Conservative 'Leave' candidate. The collapse of the UKIP vote is massively benefiting Conservatives.

For our Welsh friend here, current polling suggests CON ahead by 10% in Wales  - top party for the first time since 1850.

That Indy article is looking increasingly like wishful thinking.

No.

Thatcher dying is helping the Cons.

Brown + Blair (and Corbyn soon) sill being alive will drag down Labour for the next 20 odd years.

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On 23/04/2017 at 4:31 PM, copydude said:

Polling doesn't suggest this. So far, less than 17% see this as a Brexit election, of that 17% only 11% may be Lib Dem supporters and .. . diminishing math. Oh, and large numbers have never heard of Tim Whatsisname

Though he seems to be more visible than Theresa May: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/theresa-may-campaign-event-in-scottish-forest-prompts-new-claims-she-is-hiding

He has also given us the best quote of the election so far: "would you like to smell my spanial"

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/04/tim-farron-being-unfairly-maligned-inviting-us-smell-his-spaniel

 

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On 4/25/2017 at 9:42 AM, copydude said:

More polling tolling for the Lib Dems.

Nearly all former UKIP voters are switching to Conservative. Farage will not contest seats where there is a Conservative 'Leave' candidate. The collapse of the UKIP vote is massively benefiting Conservatives.

For our Welsh friend here, current polling suggests CON ahead by 10% in Wales  - top party for the first time since 1850.

That Indy article is looking increasingly like wishful thinking.

Oh my god I actually feel sick. I cannot take any more tory wins, I just cannot. I'll have to take a chance on Jeremy.

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On 4/24/2017 at 11:31 AM, John51 said:

Steptoe is toying with bringing in land value tax to replace business rates. If it happens, it's a start towards CI.

 

YES. LVT and scrap council tax. CI £100 a week, rent control to LHA levels to make it work.

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4 minutes ago, thisisthisitmaybe said:

Lib-dem Tory coalition is the likely result IMO. Remainers will flock to the Lib Dems; they could get more seats than 2010.

Theresa May is toast as PM.

I think you could be wrong on this.

 

Quote

 

Tories to team up with Ukip

CONSERVATIVES are planning to team up with Ukip to get more Brexit votes and defy Theresa May’s orders.

Ukip aims to take on pro-EU candidates in the election and not put up a candidate in areas with an already pro-Brexit MP. A Ukip source said: “It would look a bit strange if we’re using finite resources to compete against people who basically think the same as us over the issue.” The anti-EU party want the best politicians to secure a departure from the bloc. Express

 

 

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1 hour ago, rollover said:

I think you could be wrong on this.

 

 

UKIP are a spent force. They were created to achieve one thing - a referendum and a leave vote. Now the party is in the process of disintegration, and doesn't have a single MP.

What the Tories are underestimating is how the GE gives Remainers an opportunity to mobilise and register a massive protest vote. I also expect this GE to be the first one in which young voters get seriously involved and be a sign of things to come. Leavers may have changed their minds or be fed up with more elections and simply not turn out in similar numbers.

We will see, but there was no reason for calling a GE other than the investigation into election expenses. It is a desperate, forced move - it's a gamble and I think the PM may be out of luck this time. She probably should have just waited it out.

 

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16 hours ago, EnglishinWales said:

YES. LVT and scrap council tax. CI £100 a week, rent control to LHA levels to make it work.

I think £100 a week wouldn't quite be enough. imo 25% of national average wage would do it. That would be ~£125 a week if it happened today. Having CI fixed as a % of naw would stop the politicos tinkering with it.

Can't see any need for rent control once CI is here.  

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1 hour ago, John51 said:

I think £100 a week wouldn't quite be enough. imo 25% of national average wage would do it. That would be ~£125 a week if it happened today. Having CI fixed as a % of naw would stop the politicos tinkering with it.

Can't see any need for rent control once CI is here.  

More like £150/wk at current rent levels. Rent control would stop an unnecessary amount of money moving about. If rent/mortgage is less then the CI amount can be less. This is probably better politically and easier for everyone IMO.

Except landlords, but I don't care about  them.

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On ‎29‎/‎04‎/‎2017 at 8:37 PM, thisisthisitmaybe said:

Lib-dem Tory coalition is the likely result IMO. Remainers will flock to the Lib Dems; they could get more seats than 2010.

Theresa May is toast as PM.

Your blind faith is admirable. Make sure you get blind drunk on the evening of the 8th June to ease the pain.

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14 hours ago, Broken biscuit said:

Your blind faith is admirable. Make sure you get blind drunk on the evening of the 8th June to ease the pain.

Actually I thought the Lib Labs put up a better fight than I expected. The vote extended to the whole country would mean a tory lead of only 11% and not the 15-20% implied the polls.

We are also short of data for urban elite areas, that didn't vote, that will go solidly for pro-Remain.

My ward, Derwent valley, went solidy Tory....a string of villages from Darley Dale in the South up through Chatsworth to Baslow...Little Englanders that wouldn't know the meaning of BTL. As did Derbyshire generally. But as soon as you get trendy well heeled urban type wards  they go solidy for Labour or Liberals. Trendy, well heeled Wirksworth went Labour, Matlock went Liberal. Down at heel Ilkeston, white working class, went  Tory.

As soon as we put affluent urban elites into the mix (of which Wirksworth is a microcosm) we might get an even closer result come June 8th. 

 

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3 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

Actually I thought the Lib Labs put up a better fight than I expected. The vote extended to the whole country would mean a tory lead of only 11% and not the 15-20% implied the polls.

We are also short of data for urban elite areas, that didn't vote, that will go solidly for pro-Remain.

My ward, Derwent valley, went solidy Tory....a string of villages from Darley Dale in the South up through Chatsworth to Baslow...Little Englanders that wouldn't know the meaning of BTL. As did Derbyshire generally. But as soon as you get trendy well heeled urban type wards  they go solidy for Labour or Liberals. Trendy, well heeled Wirksworth went Labour, Matlock went Liberal. Down at heel Ilkeston, white working class, went  Tory.

As soon as we put affluent urban elites into the mix (of which Wirksworth is a microcosm) we might get an even closer result come June 8th. 

 

I'd hang fire yet, council elections /= general elections. 

Although im watching my own constituency closely. Sitting mp is hardline Brexiter but whilst the locals are definite tories they staunch remainers - seems to support Burnham in the mayoral election. I expect him to stay but it is unclear how the voting will change.

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