Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Mapatasy

Prime Central London... the canary in the coal mine

Recommended Posts

My only contention is that the indices have 'headed negative' several times and managed to bounce. Here's hoping (and that the tiny London blip in the last sample is just that).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For example: what did they do to handbrake turn the oil tanker in '04/'05?

I can't get too excited until certain they won't pull something like that out of the bag again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On the BBC Radio Four news this morning the presenter cheerfully reported as if fact that house prices would increase by 25% over the next five years and that the UK housing market was 'brexit proof'.  Great news for the rich and old, terrible news for the young and poor.  Clearly some forecast by some VI but that wasn't made absolutely clear...many listeners would have absorbed the propertyganda without question.  It stinks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, btd1981 said:

For example: what did they do to handbrake turn the oil tanker in '04/'05?

I can't get too excited until certain they won't pull something like that out of the bag again.

They already have - Term Funding Scheme and more QE announced last August. Funding for Lending is still running along in the background, as is HTB for newbuilds.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In the interests of balance, I'd be interested to see the prime central London figures adjusted to take into account the stamp duty land tax increase.

So - to what extent has the total paid (including stamp duty land tax) actually declined? I worry that the overall amount paid hasn't moved down as far as these figures show; only that a larger proportion of the total has gone to the Government and a smaller proportion to the seller.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

They already have - Term Funding Scheme and more QE announced last August. Funding for Lending is still running along in the background, as is HTB for newbuilds.

Not to mention the £3bn Home Building Fund for small builders and developers established last October, plus the Housing Growth Partnership and the £4.7bn Shared Ownership and Affordable Homes Programme (2016-21) both supported by direct investment from the HCA (Homes and Communities Agency).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Not to mention the £3bn Home Building Fund for small builders and developers established last October, plus the Housing Growth Partnership and the £4.7bn Shared Ownership and Affordable Homes Programme (2016-21) both supported by direct investment from the HCA (Homes and Communities Agency).

Increase in free childcare from 15 to 30 hours a week too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The green line on the graph [pcl] is simply an exagerated version of the others. lows are lower, highs are higher. It has not behaved before as a leading indicator.

The trend the graph does show is that after some years of london higher than UK, UK then goes higher than London so the price differential doesn't run too far apart. This has repeatedly been so and matches general observation over decades. London now 7-8 years higher than UK but looking like they've crossed which is not good news for those of us wanting to buy upcountry. Just have to hope both are negative. I am losing faith [or patience since I never had much faith] and still believe a crash will be [only] by currency devaluation [blamed on brexit]. Fine by me but can we get on with it.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

edLVg.gif

Wow, everyone has just given up on HPC then? Close the forum, show's over I guess.

 

 

I've pretty much given up now.  We keep going round in ever decreasing circles.

 

Anyone buying a house now is a proper mug.

 

Sit back and wait.

 

There is no other course of action now.

 

I'll be back to gloat when prices really start collapsing.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I've pretty much given up now.  We keep going round in ever decreasing circles.

 

Anyone buying a house now is a proper mug.

 

Sit back and wait.

 

There is no other course of action now.

 

I'll be back to gloat when prices really start collapsing.

 

Not long now. I don't believe 3-5% hpi is sufficient to keep the UK out of recession for much longer, especially with consumer inflation running at 3+%. Carney can't print any more, sensibly, and lowering the Bank rate to 0.10% will only hurt the City. Another major u-turn on govt spending is unlikely at this stage of the parliament so I'm guessing the Tories will cut and run for an early General Election next year and let the housing market tank after that. Blaming the downturn on EU intransigence re. Brexit (obviously), Putin and China.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I'll be back to gloat when prices really start collapsing.

Yup, we'll know it when (or make that 'if') we see it, but it's pointless jumping on an odd media story here or there as proof of the start of a collapse. 

Besides, prices in London remain crazy and even s***e flats in zone 6 are beyond the means of a decently paid worker to buy with their salary. 

I'll break out the bunting when sanity returns. It may be some time...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't forget the imminent recession in the States too, starting with the abrupt stock market reversal as all hope for Trump to push through radical tax changes collapses, and the subprime auto loan crisis really kicks off.

I know people regularly say these anecdotes, but friend of my other half (whose Boyfriend wanted to use their deposit to buy in Harrogate where's he's from) just "bought" a 2 bed upper flat in a 1930's house conversion in Leytonstone for £425k, currently not able to sleep because of disruptive Romanian renters in the flat below causing all kinds of "fun". Crash inevitable.

Batten down the hatches folks.. 

Edited by Barnsey

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Sandwiches33 said:

I wouldn't give up now, things are about to get very interesting.....

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news/the-british-property-boom-is-over/ar-BBzreU8?li=AA54rU

 

 

Without a doubt, things been interesting for 9 years now but they are starting to get pretty mad now.

 

Everyone knows it's a bubble, no one's willing to make the hard (easy) decision to impoverish 1000's of rich men/spivs/speculators/themselves, the bubble keeps gettign worse and more extreme.

We are fortunate/unfortunate to be witnessing one of the worlds greatest manias/cons.

Collapse is inevitable/happening how it pans out might not be good for anyone.

Sit back, relax, enjoy the show

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Surbiton flat 25% drop

I've been watching a few in my area. This one has seen a drop from £500k to £375k asking price. A lot of properties have been on the market a long time in this area (KT5/6), due to kite flying rather than quality. I could point to a few others. Happy days!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 08/07/2017 at 9:59 PM, Naz said:

Surbiton flat 25% drop

I've been watching a few in my area. This one has seen a drop from £500k to £375k asking price. A lot of properties have been on the market a long time in this area (KT5/6), due to kite flying rather than quality. I could point to a few others. Happy days!

I don't think that would have sold at £500k even at the very peak of the market. It is only 550sqft.

2 bed flats at 750sqft and the other side of the station were definitely selling for £500k last year, bigger ones for a lot more still, but I am not seeing much of that activity any more.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Next General Election   94 members have voted

    1. 1. When do you predict the next general election will be held?


      • 2019
      • 2020
      • 2021
      • 2022

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.