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Sancho Panza

50% of houses for sale in Leicester are SSTC

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LE2 439/789

LE3 367/755

LE4 274/534

1080/2078=51,9%

In my long experience of being on this website,this ratio is just plain odd.It's been like this for a while now.

Normally,I'd say it's about 25% over the years,but I don't have any data beyond that on the links provided.Anyone else follow this?

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In the past a 50% sold to stock ratio would lead to ball crunching hpi. Even during Gordon Brown's tripling of prices between 1997 and 2007 we got nowhere near that ratio. Yet I reckon Leicester will see moderate hpi at best, nothing like the Brown decade.

Clearly the connect between how easy it is to sell a house and hpi has been lost. Houses in my area seem to sell easier now tham for at least a decade...34% sold for my immediate area, yet zoopla says prices have fallen 1% this last year.

Edited by crashmonitor

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1 hour ago, crashmonitor said:

In the past a 50% sold to stock ratio would lead to ball crunching hpi. Even during Gordon Brown's tripling of prices between 1997 and 2007 we got nowhere near that ratio. Yet I reckon Leicester will see moderate hpi at best, nothing like the Brown decade.

Clearly the connect between how easy it is to sell a house and hpi has been lost. Houses in my area seem to sell easier now tham for at least a decade...34% sold for my immediate area, yet zoopla says prices have fallen 1% this last year.

Quite.Prices should be rocketing.Especially given that stock is on the lowish side for the post codes I cite.

LE3

The only explanation I can think of is that there's a massive log jam of people struggling to get mortgages approved.

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I don't think you can read too much into it, the last house I sold in 2014 was still showing up on Rightmove as SSTC 8 months after the sale had completed.

 

 EA tactic to leave sold properties visible on Rightmove to make it look like everything is selling 

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On 01/04/2017 at 11:39 PM, Sancho Panza said:

LE2 439/789

LE3 367/755

LE4 274/534

1080/2078=51,9%

In my long experience of being on this website,this ratio is just plain odd.It's been like this for a while now.

Normally,I'd say it's about 25% over the years,but I don't have any data beyond that on the links provided.Anyone else follow this?

Oh, houses are selling, flying off  the shelves.

My Mums tell me - Theyve got Sold signs on them ...

Some have Sold 3 or 5 times over the last 2 years.... Same person owns them mind.

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3 hours ago, spyguy said:

Oh, houses are selling, flying off  the shelves.

My Mums tell me - Theyve got Sold signs on them ...

Some have Sold 3 or 5 times over the last 2 years.... Same person owns them mind.

Houses falling through have always been thus. The fact is it is easier to sell a house now than for probably 13 years or so in my area, but that hasn't translated into price rises. Zoopla says zero % over the last 12 months fo my area.

The opposite occurred during the period 2004-7, the Brown boom was about done, sold ratios were as low as 15%, yet the indicies reckoned prices were going as high as 10% per annum by 2006 even though you couldn't actually sell a house for love nor money. 

I guess low volumes work in the favour of the seller, but certainly doesn't appear to have much effect on price rises oither than preventing a collapse in prices. We are at peak sold strike ratio to stock yet prices are flat.

Edited by crashmonitor

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5 hours ago, nome said:

I don't think you can read too much into it, the last house I sold in 2014 was still showing up on Rightmove as SSTC 8 months after the sale had completed.

 

 EA tactic to leave sold properties visible on Rightmove to make it look like everything is selling 

Estate agents will often do this. It creates a systematic bias, so it doesn't matter that the ratios are wrong as long as they are roughly wrong by the proportion.

I'm noticing the high proportion of SSTC (in Sussex, Surrey and South London), but also a lot of properties coming back for sale that either failed to sell or were SSTC from up to a year ago. Is it bearish that they can't sell, or moderately bullish that they aren't having to cut their asking price? Or are they just deluded and flying kites?

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1 minute ago, Muddlehead said:

Estate agents will often do this. It creates a systematic bias, so it doesn't matter that the ratios are wrong as long as they are roughly wrong by the proportion.

I'm noticing the high proportion of SSTC (in Sussex, Surrey and South London), but also a lot of properties coming back for sale that either failed to sell or were SSTC from up to a year ago. Is it bearish that they can't sell, or moderately bullish that they aren't having to cut their asking price? Or are they just deluded and flying kites?

Basically they have always been up to tricks, so I reckon just comparing  the  strike ratio from one period to another is pretty accurate. The figures may be wrong but the trend isn't. What has changed is that being able to sell a house easily hasn't translated into price rises. During the Brown boom it wasn't as easy as people think to sell houses, there was strong buyer resistance all the way up even though house prices managed a tripling in a decade and sold strike rates were probably lower than today.

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28 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

Basically they have always been up to tricks, so I reckon just comparing  the  strike ratio from one period to another is pretty accurate. The figures may be wrong but the trend isn't. What has changed is that being able to sell a house easily hasn't translated into price rises. During the Brown boom it wasn't as easy as people think to sell houses, there was strong buyer resistance all the way up even though house prices managed a tripling in a decade and sold strike rates were probably lower than today.

Yes that's what I meant - as long as the bias is systematic it can be ignored when comparing over time.

Might it be that the ease of selling hasn't translated into rises yet as there is a lag? Or might it have been seller resistance (why accept an offer or complete when prices seem to carry on rising?) as well?

Also when did estate agents start using the Internet? Buying and selling must have been quite different before rightmove and zoopla. Unless you kept a stack of local newspapers it would be hard to keep track of time on the market and price reductions.

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8 hours ago, crashmonitor said:

Houses falling through have always been thus. The fact is it is easier to sell a house now than for probably 13 years or so in my area, but that hasn't translated into price rises. Zoopla says zero % over the last 12 months fo my area.

The opposite occurred during the period 2004-7, the Brown boom was about done, sold ratios were as low as 15%, yet the indicies reckoned prices were going as high as 10% per annum by 2006 even though you couldn't actually sell a house for love nor money. 

I guess low volumes work in the favour of the seller, but certainly doesn't appear to have much effect on price rises oither than preventing a collapse in prices. We are at peak sold strike ratio to stock yet prices are flat.

That's the point I'm making.The amount of places falling through is high.

Whether EA's are keeping them on there is a separate issue to what appears a decent size price/volume problem in both supply and transactions three months hence.

I could be wrong.

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