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UK Falling Life Expectancy could reduce pension liabilities

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So......

https://www.ipe.com/countries/uk/uk-roundup-falling-life-expectancy-could-reduce-liabilities/10018221.article

 

 

Quote

 

UK pension fund liabilities could fall by up to 2% due to revised mortality figures, according to Willis Towers Watson.

New data from the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI), which monitors UK longevity trends, showed standardised mortality rates improved by 2.6% a year on average between 2000 and 2011, but since then “have been close to zero”.

Stephen Caine, senior consultant at Willis Towers Watson, said: “For some schemes about to embark on new funding negotiations, adopting [new CMI data] could cut life expectancy for a male retiring now by around six months compared with the assumptions made when they last went through this process three years ago. This could represent a reduction in liabilities of up to 2%.”

However, Aon Hewitt has warned that the same data could mean some pension schemes finding themselves at the wrong end of poor pricing in the longevity hedging market.

Tim Gordon, head of longevity at Aon Hewitt, said: “It is increasingly difficult to argue that the fall off in national mortality improvements since 2011 is simply a blip. However, the underlying picture for pension schemes is complex and, accordingly, a more tempered view is appropriate.”

Gordon added that the longevity swap market was “in a state of flux”.

“With changing or incomplete data, there remains a risk that schemes considering hedging their longevity risk may end up with poor pricing, or make a decision based on out-of-date information,” he said.

In its 2016 update, the CMI said: “Mortality improvements in the general population since 2011 have been unusually low compared to the earlier part of this century.”

Figures to the end of December 2016 showed life expectancies at age 65 were 1.3% lower for males and 2% lower for females when compared to 2015 data, the CMI said.

 

 

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Not much good news really... seeing as the generation(s) currently enjoying fat pensions along with world class health care will have hoovered up all the kitty litter before the rest of us get a shot at the joy of retirement.

Demographics is a b1tch.

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15 minutes ago, TwoTearsInABucket said:

You can thank the government for not funding the NHS. It's win, win, win for the government.

And abandoning the pastie tax

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1 hour ago, TwoTearsInABucket said:

You can thank the government for not funding the NHS. It's win, win, win for the government.

From the Economist article on same data last week

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21718939-2015-saw-biggest-annual-leap-deaths-50-years-britains-long-falling-death-rate-has

Quote

 

Even more controversial is the debate about what has caused the recent increase. Some suggest the 2015 rise came from a mismatch between the most available flu vaccine and the predominant strain of the virus at that time. The authors of the JRSM article do not believe influenza to be the cause, and note that recent winters have not been especially cold. Nor has the recent rise been confined to winters. They conclude that the most likely cause is a crisis in health and social care. Spending on social care, on which many elderly people depend, has declined by 8.4% in real terms since 2011. Hospitals’ budgets have also come under increasing pressure. Delayed transfers of care (so-called bed-blocking) in hospitals and the length of time from referral to treatment have been getting longer.

 
 
 
 
 
 

The government hotly denies this explanation, the Department of Health calling it a “triumph of personal bias over research”. Public Health England, a government organisation, said that recent rises were “not exceptional” and that the most widespread influenza in 2015 was a strain that particularly affected the elderly.

The authors admit limitations to their study, not least a lack of complete data, even two years on. (“Can you imagine the chancellor of the exchequer having to make economic decisions based on data that was two years old?” asks Mr McKee.) He admits there are also caveats to one of the main causes of the increased deaths—dementia—because of changes in how deaths are coded by the Office for National Statistics. “We are not saying we have all the answers,” he says. “But conventional explanations do not explain what we are seeing.”  

A separate report by 2020 Delivery, a consultancy, backs up the paper’s finding. It also discounts cold weather as a main cause, pointing out that the uptick in recent years has not been seen in other European countries. Nor can it be blamed on a rise in diabetes, obesity or other “lifestyle diseases”, it argues, since the rise in the incidence of those diseases has flattened since 2010. It concludes that the reduction in social-care spending could be a “credible potential root”, but warns that the public data examined so far do not provide “causal evidence” to link these factors directly to the increase in mortality.

Critics point to errors in the JRSM paper. The authors admit that one chart is wrongly labelled, but say it does not affect their conclusions. “The spike of excess mortality in winter 2014-15 was real, but was no higher than those seen in 1996-97 and 1999-2000,” says Eugene Milne, editor of the Journal of Public Health. Set aside the 2014-15 peak and the downward trend looks unchanged, he says. “They are overinterpreting the data.” The next years’ figures will be closely watched.

 

 

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Die you b@stards, oh and get you money into lifetime ISA so we can get our hands on it for your private sector care and bump up receipts from death bed taxes.

Best regards,

The People Farmers

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10 minutes ago, council dweller said:

Avoid long term prescription drugs like the plague.

My Doctor was happy that I`d been taking them for 2.5 years. Problem is I haven't .....

Its less the use of long running prescription drugs, its more that you get other pills for other illnesses and they all start interacting in wierd and wonderful ways, most of which are not good for you.

 

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4 hours ago, TwoTearsInABucket said:

I honestly think this is more to do with the squeeze on supporting the old and infirm.

Care for the elderly is expensive and honestly from personal experience it is very hard to find a place for a parent that needs care. My father needed to go to a home as he has Alzheimer's and it was not possible for him to stay with my mother. £1800 a month for his care. Before anyone jumps on me, that money is largely coming from his pension and has in fact left my mother substantially worse off. I'm assuming those without a sizeable pension are quiet a drain on the system/funds.

 

 

when i think about my nana's retirement, sure few good years but then a stroke in a stroke ward and they never even knew she had one until we came in the evening and pointed out the odd things.  now all i remember is the really nasty stinky care home, chinese workers washing her down after a shit, sipping the nastest smelling gravy through a straw for dinner at 5pm and then bed at 6pm.  having government come around her place looking at selling her house to pay for that grim place.  personally I'd take death...

anyone who wants a retirement, do it now and think of this wonderful credit society where you can have a large tab before you kick the bucket and not have to pay a penny.

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Confirms what I have posted a couple of times on this topic

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/229552-pension-ages-going-up-again/&do=findComment&comment=1103215256

The weekly mortality statistics have shown the raw number of deaths rising in the weekly returns above the 5 year moving average for a number of years now

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths

The Age Standardised Mortality Rate Rise in the death rate in 2015 was 5.1% for females and 3.1% for males which was the biggest since the 1968 Hong Kong Flu epidemic. Public Health England tried to blame the rise on another flu outbreak but it was a pretty lame explanation as the flu outbreak that year was not a new strain as happened in the 1960s.  In fact apart from vaccinating people against the wrong variant of the known varieties of flu there was nothing particularly remarkable about the flu outbreak in 2015 and the figures show that mortality was up pretty nearly every month of the year not just in the months when flu is prevalent. Moreover that trend has continued albeit at a lesser rate into subsequent years. In the winter months of early 2016 deaths were still 40% higher than in 2014. If anything the 2017 figures look to be even worse so far with quite high death rates particularly in the early weeks of the current year compared with earlier years.

Politicians and civil servants are making pension projections and decisions about retirement ages using historical data that is already out of date

Edited by stormymonday_2011

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4 minutes ago, stormymonday_2011 said:

Confirms what I have posted a couple of times on this topic

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/229552-pension-ages-going-up-again/&do=findComment&comment=1103215256

The weekly mortality statistics have shown the raw number of deaths rising in the weekly returns above the 5 year average for a number of years now

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths

The Age Standardised Mortality Rate Rise in the death rate in 2015 was 5.1% for females and 3.1% which was the biggest since the 1968 Hong Kong Flu epidemic. Public Health England tried to blame the rise on another flu outbreak but it was a pretty lame explanation as the flu outbreak that year was not a new strain as happened in the 1960s.  In fact apart from vaccinating people against the wrong variant of the known varieties of flu there was nothing particularly remarkable about the flu outbreak in 2015 and the figures show that mortality was up pretty nearly every month of the year not just in the months when flu is prevalent. Moreover that trend has continued albeit at a lesser rate into subsequent years. In the winter months of early 2016 deaths were still 40% higher than in 2014. If anything the 2017 figures look to be even worse so far with quite high death rates particularly in the early weeks of the current year compared with earlier years.

Politicians and civil servants are making pension projections and decisions about retirement ages using historical data that is already out of date

Yes I remember you're posts on this topic.

Like you I'm not surprised about these figures.

As I've posted before IMO life expectancy will continue to drop due to declining living standards, unhealthy eating, poorer quality foods in general, chemicals in the food chain and environmental pollution. Prescribed and over the counter drugs are another thing and people often take combinations. Reading the leaflet inside packs is enough to make me avoid them unless absolutely necessary. Spyguy mentioned on another thread how these drugs could interact with each other and who knows what that does? This doesn't seem to warrant funding for study! I'm cynical and I don't see this as a concern to pharmaceutical companies as profit is everything in this world!

Also agree with other posters who predict that a lot of boomers will not live as long as expected due to high living and general unfitness.

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15 minutes ago, hotairmail said:

I was watching something the other day which stated that when Titus Salt decided to build his mills outside Bradford at a purpose built new town with proper amenities, the average life expectancy of people in Bradford was just 18.

People tend to forget that life expectancy in Manchester and other major UK industrial towns in the 1840s was as low as it was at the time of the Black Death in England during the period 1348-1349. Even in 1914 life expectancy was only was 49 years for a man and 53 years for a woman. Back then of course it was infants and mothers in child birth who died in droves.

Incidentally much of UK increased life expectancy is down to the drop in infant death rates in the current century.

Even in my lifetime it has dropped from about 25 per 1000 to just 4 per 1000

Edited by stormymonday_2011

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8 minutes ago, stormymonday_2011 said:

People tend to forget that life expectancy in Manchester and other major UK industrial towns in the 1840s was as low as it was at the time of the Black Death in England during the period 1348-1349. Even in 1914 life expectancy was only was 49 years for a man and 53 years for a woman. Back then of course it was infants and mothers in child birth who died in droves

Hmm so basically we're not living all that much longer providing you get past dying at birth?

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I'll post this link to a summary of the Cridland Report re SPA increases.

Headline says it paves the way for a SPA of 70.

Cridland mentions increased longevity and the Report expects this to continue to rise. 

Hmmm....we'll see how this pans out in the future when further research is published re life expectancy.

 

https://www.ftadviser.com/state-pension/2017/03/23/cridland-clears-way-for-state-pension-age-hike-to-70/

Edited by Economic Exile

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19 minutes ago, SillyBilly said:

Hmm so basically we're not living all that much longer providing you get past dying at birth?

Difficult to say.

Heavy manual labour combined with infectious disease, poor diet and harsh living conditions put a lot of our immediate ancestors in an early grave

That said if you visit Victorian graveyards scattered amongst the little lozenge gravestones for children you can find a fair few over 75s. One of my forebears is recorded as working as a farm labourer in the 1911 Census. He was 73 years old.

On edit  - I just checked the Census detail again and in fact he was 77 years old  and still working as a farm hand !!!

Edited by stormymonday_2011

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18 minutes ago, stormymonday_2011 said:

People tend to forget that life expectancy in Manchester and other major UK industrial towns in the 1840s was as low as it was at the time of the Black Death in England during the period 1348-1349. Even in 1914 life expectancy was only was 49 years for a man and 53 years for a woman. Back then of course it was infants and mothers in child birth who died in droves

I have always kept that in mind, to contrast many of the advantages we have today.

Quote

 

CHS: Foundation
In the early 1850s, life expectancy for those working in the inner-cities was extremely poor and Manchester was no exception. Many of these workers were worried about the fate of their children should they die. A school for the orphans of warehousemen and clerks.............. on 20 September 1854,............ and following this meeting a committee was formed to develop the idea. The school was to be called "The Manchester District Schools for Orphans and Necessitous Children of Warehousemen and Clerks",[10] and it was to be open to all children, regardless of gender or religious background.

...The proposal was advertised to warehousemen and clerks across the north-west of England; the men were asked for one guinea or more per year, which would pay for their child's education and well-being, should the father die and the family left "necessitous". 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheadle_Hulme_School

The term in loco parentis, Latin for "in the place of a parent"[1] refers to the legal responsibility of a person or organization to take on some of the functions and responsibilities of a parent.   ..... founded in Manchester, England, in 1855; adopted in loco parentis as its motto, well before the world's first public education act, the Elementary Education Act 1870. 

 

Although as I understand it, a purely private/independent school today.

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7 hours ago, stormymonday_2011 said:

Difficult to say.

Heavy manual labour combined with infectious disease, poor diet and harsh living conditions put a lot of our immediate ancestors in an early grave

That said if you visit Victorian graveyards scattered amongst the little lozenge gravestones for children you can find a fair few over 75s. One of my forebears is recorded as working as a farm labourer in the 1911 Census. He was 73 years old.

On edit  - I just checked the Census detail again and in fact he was 77 years old  and still working as a farm hand !!!

I doubt the actual heavy manual labour is a big negative when looking at life expectancy. It's what and where they were doing with the associated risks, accidents and disease that would be the killer.

 

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9 minutes ago, ccc said:

I doubt the actual heavy manual labour is a big negative when looking at life expectancy. It's what and where they were doing with the associated risks, accidents and disease that would be the killer.

 

I think most of the deaths in the 1800s could be explained by cholera/poor sewers/water and very bad air pollution.

Today, our sweres are OK but eed some work.

But the air pollution in cities is starting to swing its axe again.

 

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