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Black February

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House price crashes manifest themselves in more ways than just falling house prices. If you are not panicking yet you jolly well should be because we are in the middle of a full blown crash and a big one at that. Just look around you. The government has lost control of spending, businesses and private bancrupcies are exploding. We have lost more than 25% of our manufacturing capacity in the space of 9 years. Unemployment is soaring and bad debts are out of control. All of this chaos is going on whilst we are still at historically low interest rates.

It has been great fun locking horns with the bulls but the end is nigh.

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House price crashes manifest themselves in more ways than just falling house prices. If you are not panicking yet you jolly well should be because we are in the middle of a full blown crash and a big one at that. Just look around you. The government has lost control of spending, businesses and private bancrupcies are exploding. We have lost more than 25% of our manufacturing capacity in the space of 9 years. Unemployment is soaring and bad debts are out of control. All of this chaos is going on whilst we are still at historically low interest rates.

It has been great fun locking horns with the bulls but the end is nigh.

I certainly hope so, but as we have seen, they are resilient little buggers!!!

I just HOPE we dont have to go through a recession and Mass Unemployment to get correction in the ECONOMY as a whole :(

TB

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Most worrying economic figure right now............government overspending equivalent to 3.5% of GDP .....(spending exceeds tax revenues by 8%)...perfectly normal in the middle of a slump but we're still just past the peak of consumer boom with low unemployment....................

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perfectly normal in the middle of a slump but we're still just past the peak of consumer boom with low unemployment

Which means that when the S*** does hit the fan there will be nothing left to stabilise the situation by stimulating output with govenment spending. In fact the situation is worse, with tax recepits in decline the government would be forced to cut government spending which would add to the downturn.

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Which means that when the S*** does hit the fan there will be nothing left to stabilise the situation by stimulating output with govenment spending. In fact the situation is worse, with tax recepits in decline the government would be forced to cut government spending which would add to the downturn.

I was looking at the blog and then thought back to about a year and a half ago. The difference on the news is absolutely tremendous, yes, there's the housing spin, but there's some articles in there with words that would have been hounded out as heresy a year and a bit ago. Stuff is not looking good, and if this isn't 'bad economic times', I'd hate to see what they did look like. It seems like we've got the makings of a metaphorical bloodbath :(

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I certainly hope so, but as we have seen, they are resilient little buggers!!!

I just HOPE we dont have to go through a recession and Mass Unemployment to get correction in the ECONOMY as a whole :(

TB

I fear that we may be past the point of no return... I think a recession is inevitable.

It's like cancer enough has to be done about it at the right time otherwise it will kill you (doesn't matter if its painful or not if it has to be done it has to be done) - trouble is the BoE did too little too late to because they wanted to minimise the pain so instead of a small downturn in the enconomy we'll get a full blown recession.

I HOPE I'm wrong but I FEAR that I'm not...

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Most worrying economic figure right now............government overspending equivalent to 3.5% of GDP .....(spending exceeds tax revenues by 8%)...perfectly normal in the middle of a slump but we're still just past the peak of consumer boom with low unemployment....................

UK would not qualify to join the Euro...

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I fear that we may be past the point of no return... I think a recession is inevitable.

It's like cancer enough has to be done about it at the right time otherwise it will kill you (doesn't matter if its painful or not if it has to be done it has to be done) - trouble is the BoE did too little too late to because they wanted to minimise the pain so instead of a small downturn in the enconomy we'll get a full blown recession.

I HOPE I'm wrong but I FEAR that I'm not...

No doubt in my mind at all: Dozens of people I know & know of CANNOT SELL THEIR PROPERTY - even when they knock huge chunks off the asking price.......... All that cr*p you read/see/hear in the media about the "recovering" "stabilising" market is absolute TOTAL BULLSH*T. Debt is soaring like a rocket all over the place. Bankruptcies have only just started - there's an avalnche of them to come.

A recession has been bearing down on us for well over 2 years -- and the main blame can be put squarely on the House Price Pyramid Selling Scam [the biggest in the world ever] that we have had to endure for far too long. The Moneylenders have been milking this racket for as long as they can -- and now I think it's time to start putting them in jail.

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We have lost more than 25% of our manufacturing capacity in the space of 9 years. Unemployment is soaring and bad debts are out of control. All of this chaos is going on whilst we are still at historically low interest rates.

Where do you get your 25% from? Manufacturing output is up by a little over 1% from October 1996 to October 2005 (the most recent figure available). Are you by any chance referring to manufacturing employment rather than capacity? In other words, you're talking about massive improvements in manufacturing productivity?

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All that cr*p you read/see/hear in the media about the "recovering" "stabilising" market is absolute TOTAL BULLSH*T.

I think we will shortly reach a tipping point. It won't be long before the wider public starts comparing their own experiences with the VI spin and will stop believing it.

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Where do you get your 25% from? Manufacturing output is up by a little over 1% from October 1996 to October 2005 (the most recent figure available). Are you by any chance referring to manufacturing employment rather than capacity? In other words, you're talking about massive improvements in manufacturing productivity?

You are quite right. We have lost over 1 million jobs in manufacturing over the past 9 years and this year the number of manufacturing jobs will fall below 3 million. These job losses are related to plant closures rather than efficiency gains. I don't think that the government and press realise how many more plant closures are in the pipe line.

It would be nice if you were right about productivity. Sadly this government has made us the sick man of Europe on productivity. This what happens when political ideology and red tape replace common sense.

Edited by dog

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Most worrying economic figure right now............government overspending equivalent to 3.5% of GDP .....(spending exceeds tax revenues by 8%)...perfectly normal in the middle of a slump but we're still just past the peak of consumer boom with low unemployment....................quote]

I think the figure is more like 5% for Govt overspending. See my post on Brown's disaster printed in the DT

http://portal.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.j.../ixcitytop.html

But analysts said the economy remained badly out of kilter, with capital investment languishing at record lows and a trade deficit
nearing the danger level of 5pc of GDP
.
Edited by Realistbear

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No doubt in my mind at all: Dozens of people I know & know of CANNOT SELL THEIR PROPERTY - even when they knock huge chunks off the asking price.......... All that cr*p you read/see/hear in the media about the "recovering" "stabilising" market is absolute TOTAL BULLSH*T. Debt is soaring like a rocket all over the place. Bankruptcies have only just started - there's an avalnche of them to come.

A recession has been bearing down on us for well over 2 years -- and the main blame can be put squarely on the House Price Pyramid Selling Scam [the biggest in the world ever] that we have had to endure for far too long. The Moneylenders have been milking this racket for as long as they can -- and now I think it's time to start putting them in jail.

too right

the insolvency practitioners i know are really busy and they are predicting this year the number of bankrupts / iva's will go through the roof.

house prices are not gonna fall though ;)

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In my area in West Sussex houses are selling like hotcakes, and I am not making this up.

I would reckon 5weeks is the average time for something to be under offer.

I am sure this cannot last for much more than the summer, but it is happening and its happening now.

I would offload right now if I had the opportunity as I am now certain that 2007 is going to be the big one!!!!.

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Guest consa

In my area in West Sussex houses are selling like hotcakes, and I am not making this up.

I would reckon 5weeks is the average time for something to be under offer.

I am sure this cannot last for much more than the summer, but it is happening and its happening now.

I would offload right now if I had the opportunity as I am now certain that 2007 is going to be the big one!!!!.

Which area are you in?

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In my area in West Sussex houses are selling like hotcakes, and I am not making this up.

I would reckon 5weeks is the average time for something to be under offer.

I am sure this cannot last for much more than the summer, but it is happening and its happening now.

I would offload right now if I had the opportunity as I am now certain that 2007 is going to be the big one!!!!.

According to the Halifax west sussex was down 7% year on year to 31/12/2005.

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According to the Halifax west sussex was down 7% year on year to 31/12/2005.

My sister lives in W Sussex and all she sees are forests of for sale signs and sellers dropping prices. In my area (W Midlands) prices are down 5.4% in 2005 according to the hihgly optimistic fellows at Nationwide. :lol:

Just think 5.4% in the first year of the correction and 6 more to go!!! And, the drops tend to get bigger as selling momentum builds. Anyone getting excited yet?

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In my area in West Sussex houses are selling like hotcakes, and I am not making this up.

... I am now certain that 2007 is going to be the big one!!!!.

I remember the prophets here saying in 2003 that 2005 would be the 'big one'.

Another two or three years and we'll be in official stagnation/soft landing territory.

Ho hum. :unsure:

Alien98.gif

post-67-1138317159.gif

Edited by Baz63

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In my area in West Sussex houses are selling like hotcakes, and I am not making this up.

... I am now certain that 2007 is going to be the big one!!!!.

Although the evidence suggests its already started...with a vengeance? :P

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=22924

Celebratory beer's in order.

0337.jpg

post-67-1138318235.jpg

Edited by Baz63

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My sister lives in W Sussex and all she sees are forests of for sale signs and sellers dropping prices. In my area (W Midlands) prices are down 5.4% in 2005 according to the hihgly optimistic fellows at Nationwide. :lol:

Just think 5.4% in the first year of the correction and 6 more to go!!! And, the drops tend to get bigger as selling momentum builds. Anyone getting excited yet?

Surprise surprise.............

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If you are not panicking yet you jolly well should be because we are in the middle of a full blown crash and a big one at that. Just look around you. All of this chaos is going on whilst we are still at historically low interest rates.

It has been great fun locking horns with the bulls but the end is nigh.

This is simply most excellent.

A large part of my complex analytical crash model takes into account day to day sentiment.

Fear, angst, worry, denial, panic, self doubt, lack of self worth and respect, paranoid tendencies to believe everyone is stupid except oneself, making spurious and nonsense data fit ones own interpretation of the world are all variables in our project data matrix.

Most excellent, we will pump this negative sentiment into our complex model to try and determine the exact date and epi-center of the projected crash.

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A valid point here is that even some former bulls on this forum are now acknowledging what's coming. The point of contention being timing but when we get down to debating this year versus next it's pretty clear that the game's over.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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