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What is going on?

i was expecting spring to bring a load of houses to market. Maybe horribly overpriced, but at least some decent volumes.

There just seems very little for sale at the moment. The market is just not functioning very well anymore.

Maybe people are waiting for some decent sunny weather to list. But the trend the last few years is every decreasing volumes.

Doesnt even seem to be many BTL unloading yet.

My area of interest plymouth. 

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55 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

What is going on?

i was expecting spring to bring a load of houses to market. Maybe horribly overpriced, but at least some decent volumes.

There just seems very little for sale at the moment. The market is just not functioning very well anymore.

Maybe people are waiting for some decent sunny weather to list. But the trend the last few years is every decreasing volumes.

Doesnt even seem to be many BTL unloading yet.

My area of interest plymouth. 

Are they all keeping the current house and becoming 'accidental' landlords?

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Similarly slow up the A38 in Exeter. It seems that sellers and buyers are playing wait-and-see. Unless an interest rate rise materialises, we could be in for a long, slow stagnation...

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I've been noticing and commenting on low volumes/stock levels for 2 years now... it first became apparent in early 2015 when the the ''spring bounce''never materialised, and back then everyone just said it was down to the upcoming General Election and once that was out of the way things would get back to ''normal'' (whatever normal is) and people would start putting their houses on the market again, but no, that never happened, stock levels just continued to fall and fall... and fall.

 

In my postcode sk13 I'm pretty certain there has been consistent mom falls in stock levels for over 2 years now

 

nb jiltedjen I thought you were Manchester?

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1 hour ago, jiltedjen said:

What is going on?

i was expecting spring to bring a load of houses to market. Maybe horribly overpriced, but at least some decent volumes.

There just seems very little for sale at the moment. The market is just not functioning very well anymore.

Maybe people are waiting for some decent sunny weather to list. But the trend the last few years is every decreasing volumes.

Doesnt even seem to be many BTL unloading yet.

My area of interest plymouth. 

At such elavated price level, volume is always going to be low. Plus interest rates are still low, only forced sellers and desperate BTL investors will transact. No one is willing to pay over the odds anymore, so there's little incentive to people to sell at a profit, especially when they don't know where to put their money next.

I was hoping for the Central London price fall (15-20%) to ripple out by now.. but it's slow going because help to buy/shared ownership and new build completion are still holding up prices in the suburbs. If there are FTI (first time idiots) willing to pay up to £600k in "upcoming" areas like Croydon.. then it will take a big shock for price to drop dramatically e.g. another credit crunch/banking crisis.

 

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In Birmingham City Centre I have noticed lots of flats with tenants in situ coming onto the market. A couple of months ago there were less than 300 properties for sale in the area (IIRC), today there are 340 (this could be normal in Spring, though).

And lots of them have tenants in situ, just look at the first page of most recently added: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=REGION^94028&sortType=6&includeSSTC=false

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Whats going in?

Not much.

Northern areas i track - right side of Pennines - are still bumping aling bottoms.

The North will be hit hard by benefit and LHA changes.

Id file any percieved activity as optimistic, which will stop when MMR says No.

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4 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

What is going on?

i was expecting spring to bring a load of houses to market. Maybe horribly overpriced, but at least some decent volumes.

There just seems very little for sale at the moment. The market is just not functioning very well anymore.

Maybe people are waiting for some decent sunny weather to list. But the trend the last few years is every decreasing volumes.

Doesnt even seem to be many BTL unloading yet.

My area of interest plymouth. 

I've kept a spreadsheet of listings and currently down 15% on this time last year (based on £300k limit). So either fewer listings or they're on at a higher price.

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4 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

What is going on?

Doesnt even seem to be many BTL unloading yet.

My area of interest plymouth. 

I track Plymouth and on the only eventful things I have picked up this month are as follows (Bear in mind I don't track flats and my interest is seeing what comes under the 150k radar)

sub 100k

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-65159030.html 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-65048363.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-64372310.html

5-bed below 150k

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-62859389.html

Number of 4 beds creeping below 150k are 7 (this is increasing) one below of note.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-58692691.html (BTL?)

 

rightmove.PNG

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4 hours ago, Mr Foster said:

At such elavated price level, volume is always going to be low. Plus interest rates are still low, only forced sellers and desperate BTL investors will transact. No one is willing to pay over the odds anymore, so there's little incentive to people to sell at a profit, especially when they don't know where to put their money next.

 

This.

Why sell? Just hoard and rent it out, innit..!

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7 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

What is going on?

i was expecting spring to bring a load of houses to market. Maybe horribly overpriced, but at least some decent volumes.

There just seems very little for sale at the moment. The market is just not functioning very well anymore.

Also very little coming on in my part of London. What is shifting needs a couple of price cuts first, but it's low supply offsetting low demand. 

The difference is in rentals. Definitely prices falling here and while there is less supply coming on than I had expected, I think that's due to landlords being scared of losing tenants in a much weaker market whereas last year you had the new BTL turnover dislocating tenants in a stronger market. 

 

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With share prices, when prices increase and volumes traded fall off a cliff, it's a sign that the support for the prices asked is very weak, and that its time for prices to reverse. Similar happened for a year or so after the crisis with house prices.

surely the gov is loosing out a lot of stamp duty with the lack of volumes? 

I think MMR was introduced around the same times volumes dropped again, along with the BTL Rush before stamp duty rise. 

the housing market seems very slow to react, the BTL changes will help but I'm not seeing any great rush to the exit. 

at the moment it just looks like house prices will trend to infinity but impossible to actually sell more than 1 a year in a whole city.

does not look like a functioning market at all. 

 

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Was it ever a functioning market. Borrowed money lent by over eager banks meant that for years there hasn't been any price discovery. It can only start to work when the cost of borrowing is front and centre in the mind of the purchaser. ZIRP and frozen rate changes for the best part of a decade have comatosed borrowers. 

How can anyone think that it's a good time to borrow and buy?

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10 hours ago, GreenDevil said:

This.

Why sell? Just hoard and rent it out, innit..!

Hoard, rent it out, enabling you to get young/less well-off people to pay the rent to fund your lifestyle and eventually pay your pension. Then hand the house down to your children so they can do the same. That is the dream.

As you say, why sell when you can do that?

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10 hours ago, GreenDevil said:

This.

Why sell? Just hoard and rent it out, innit..!

Being going on for years, policy and low interest rates mean why sell?.....when nowhere to put the equity, everyone owning one, using it to live in, using it as an income or future income or owning outright to one day give away tax free.....when all sold and paid for where will the new stock come from? What will it be built on?.....rising into the air, more people squashed into less land?;)

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Housing is the only way debt can be pushed into the economy to spend, keeps people working, keeps the economy growing.....investing in people and  business is far riskier......so lend more against land and property, except it needs people globally, real business and work to keep the plates spinning,  rising property prices to increase debt,  growth progress......Then everyone becomes rich.;)

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someone sure feels like prices are going to start falling after they just stretched themselves in london....

seems a bit pointless spamming it when they are only going to get banned and all their posts are removed. 

Trolls are a good sign that people are worried. 

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19 hours ago, Mr Foster said:

At such elavated price level, volume is always going to be low. Plus interest rates are still low, only forced sellers and desperate BTL investors will transact. No one is willing to pay over the odds anymore, so there's little incentive to people to sell at a profit, especially when they don't know where to put their money next.

An asymmetry between leveraged sellers and buyers contributes to low volumes as well. The first group benefits from the low interest rate and low cost of carrying the asset. The second one is subject to price/earning restrictions which are based on future higher interest rates. They can't get a loan even if they could have no problem with servicing it at the current level of the interest rates.   

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52 minutes ago, slawek said:

An asymmetry between leveraged sellers and buyers contributes to low volumes as well. The first group benefits from the low interest rate and low cost of carrying the asset. The second one is subject to price/earning restrictions which are based on future higher interest rates. They can't get a loan even if they could have no problem with servicing it at the current level of the interest rates.   

The way round bankers are trying to take is the family mortgage, laying claim to the equity of grandparents and parents to help the grandchildren meet current prices.

Nationwide at it now 

 

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6 hours ago, Blod said:

Was it ever a functioning market. Borrowed money lent by over eager banks meant that for years there hasn't been any price discovery. It can only start to work when the cost of borrowing is front and centre in the mind of the purchaser. ZIRP and frozen rate changes for the best part of a decade have comatosed borrowers. 

How can anyone think that it's a good time to borrow and buy?

I am about to buy as a free market participant. The slowdown doesn't seem to have appeared to have affected houses i have seen. I tried the brexit uncertainty trick clause 24 ect on properties I would make a low offer on, the estate agent laughs passes on my offer then tells me I have been outbid setting a new top price for the street. I console myself it isn't a sale until it is in the land registry then it seems to appear. Comments like the above being a bad time to borrow have been said on here for ages. Since 2009 we have had zirp and inflation at times over 5% making it a very good time to borrow and leverage up on a rising asset. Perhaps if one believes the currency will be trashed to keep mortgage rates low and protect asset prices then now is an ideal time to borrow. Whilst this may not be the prevailing view of many on here, there seems to be a lot of sympathy for this view in the wider community. Friends still say property only goes up why the need to sell keep the old house and remortgage. MMR has not stopped them go to 5.5 times joint income and borrow the deposit from either bomad or others or equity in parents property. We all know that house rises are credit driven an can anyone see this drying up. Central banks showed where their focus was last recession i don't think they will have different priorities next time. Low volumes may be an issue but i suspect falling prices may be a bigger issue for the government.

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