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Barnsey

Northern Powerhouse fires up, +8.8%

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Here's one for Venger...

Quote

Manchester has sped ahead of southern rivals, recording the fastest house price growth of any city in the UK.

Homes in the capital of the Northern Powerhouse increased in value by 8.8pc over the past 12 months, according to Hometrack. 

Cities with higher-priced property have seen a slowdown in price growth: in London it slowed to an annual rate of  5.6pc, the lowest since May 2013. This is acting as a drag on the index's overall level of growth.

It is not just house price growth that is slowing.  The number of sales in the capital has fallen 8pc over the past 12 months, hit by weakening demand from investors, affordability pressures and uncertainty over Brexit. 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/northern-powerhouse-fires-house-prices-manchester-rise-faster/

Ripple effect, BTL/Foreign buyers in search of affordability or genuine FTB prosperity?

Looking at the cities with highest sales growth, Liverpool-Manchester-Leicester-Birmingham-Nottingham-Leeds-Glasgow-Belfast, we must be nearing the end of this HPI cycle, surely?

Edited by Barnsey

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3 minutes ago, hotairmail said:

As soon as you see cranes springing up in northern cities and incredible grand plans appear in the local press, you know we're near the end of the cycle.

There are sites in Leeds that were never resurrected after the last burst of enthusiasm. 

Very true, and there are plans appearing for many a plot in Leeds at the minute. None as incredible as Lumiere or Criterion Place in the last bubble but numerous towers on those same kind of plots.

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Not convinced they have their facts right there.

A quick check of central Manchester postcodes shows a 12 month rise of 3-4%

the best performing postcode M21 which I track stands at 6.6%

Everything else in Manchester is in the 3-4% region, even M20 Didsbury can't top 4%

Is it an advertising piece?

 

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Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds etc. These are places where Barwell's Build-to-Rent designs are going to have greatest impact. Using dog-hair, cardboard and cheap Chinese steel as construction materials, the cost advantages for developers are off the scale. Legal & General established the biggest modular home construction factory in the world at Sherburn near Leeds last year to fully exploit of the opportunity.

http://www.constructionenquirer.com/2016/02/25/lg-launches-worlds-biggest-modular-housing-factory/

Screen-Shot-2016-02-25-at-14.17.00-600x4

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24 minutes ago, Eddie_George said:

"Northern Powerhouse" made me cringe when it was first coined. Now it makes me want to puke.

 

'The Midlands Engine'

:lol:

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Manchester is largely a Ponzi economy. That isnt to say ponzi schemes cant make people money and be sustained for a long time. Much of the price rises are due to a shortage of desirable places to live. The only two really desrable places in Manchester itself, Chorlton and Didsbury, are very expensive by Northern standards. Heaton Moore on the stockport border is where everyone is trying to jump in now and prices are high there too.

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3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Here's one for Venger...

 

Quote

 

Manchester has sped ahead of southern rivals, recording the fastest house price growth of any city in the UK.

Homes in the capital of the Northern Powerhouse increased in value by 8.8pc over the past 12 months, according to Hometrack. 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/northern-powerhouse-fires-house-prices-manchester-rise-faster/

 

 

Ripple effect, BTL/Foreign buyers in search of affordability or genuine FTB prosperity?

Looking at the cities with highest sales growth, Liverpool-Manchester-Leicester-Birmingham-Nottingham-Leeds-Glasgow-Belfast, we must be nearing the end of this HPI cycle, surely?

Hesitatingly opened this thread (+8.8%), hoping you would not also name-check me Barnsey.  Bad enough to read +8.8%.

It's so testing.  You know how expensive things are this way, when you came up from London to do some proper research.

Good value for some.  Many a BTLer doubled-down, and others sat HPI+ pretty.   Meanwhile the renters rent, and wait.  

And I see it.  In the asking prices, the low-inventory on market, and in the actual transaction prices, month after month.  HPI+.

Whoever it is / whoever they are...

+8.8% !

 

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''Powerhouse'' is obviously the new ''Tiger Economy'' and anyone with half a brain knew what to do when somewhere was being labelled a Tiger Economy.

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3 hours ago, hotairmail said:

As soon as you see cranes springing up in northern cities and incredible grand plans appear in the local press, you know we're near the end of the cycle.

There are sites in Leeds that were never resurrected after the last burst of enthusiasm. 

I've no idea if Manchester is a bear trap or a bull trap. If anything, I would say it is currently has a higher crane index than back in 2007/8.

 

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9 minutes ago, Venger said:

Hesitatingly opened this thread (+8.8%), hoping you would not also name-check me Barnsey.  Bad enough to read +8.8%.

It's so testing.  You know how expensive things are this way, when you came up from London to do some proper research.

Good value for some.  Many a BTLer doubled-down, and others sat HPI+ pretty.   Meanwhile the renters rent, and wait.  

And I see it.  In the asking prices, the low-inventory on market, and in the actual transaction prices, month after month.  HPI+.

Whoever it is / whoever they are...

+8.8% !

 

I cannot remember the last time I saw a statistic and thought, 'Yes, that is what I'm seeing myself'. Must be years ago.

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12 minutes ago, 24 year mortgage 8itch said:

I cannot remember the last time I saw a statistic and thought, 'Yes, that is what I'm seeing myself'. Must be years ago.

 

Well yes... that and a lot more in some parts....

Two of the houses we discussed just a few years back, and which you went to view with your family.....

One on Grove Lane where you ran through the complications in modernising.  I am pretty certain it came back to market asking £200K more, and was Sold STC last time I saw it.

And another house at top of a cul-de-sac that needed modernising and you were very interested in, but price too steep.  Pretty certain I saw that come back to market about 12 weeks ago and it went Sold STC at some £120K more than last sold in 2013-14.

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4 minutes ago, Venger said:

 

Well yes... that and a lot more in some parts....

Two of the houses we discussed just a few years back, and which you went to view with your family.....

One on Grove Lane where you ran through the complications in modernising.  I am pretty certain it came back to market asking £200K more, and was Sold STC last time I saw it.

And another house at top of a cul-de-sac that needed modernising and you were very interested in, but price too steep.  Pretty certain I saw that come back to market about 12 weeks ago and it went Sold STC at some £120K more than last sold in 2013-14.

I've given up looking unless something leaps out at me. Either  of those could be one of many :D

 

My next door neighbour has sold so I'll get a good idea soon of what the market has done over the past 12 months. They're taking the money and moving to a cheaper area, obviously. 

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17 minutes ago, 24 year mortgage 8itch said:

I've given up looking unless something leaps out at me. Either of those could be one of many :D

My next door neighbour has sold so I'll get a good idea soon of what the market has done over the past 12 months. They're taking the money and moving to a cheaper area, obviously. 

 

With inventory scraping such low levels, not many owners taking that option, and clearly many others on the buy side pushing and falling over themselves to pay high prices.   It does look like there is big money flowing around.

I don't think I am giving anything away... posting here that you once looked over these houses with some interest... it wasn't Grove Lane but nearby.  (All set out in Regional).

Looks to me the first one just needed some fresh paint on the inside, although now I look closer they have done some works with the kitchen.


Sale Date: 15 Nov 2013.    Price Paid: £296,000
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=43126103&sale=84440331&country=england

Sold STC £425,000  http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-57630406.html

------------------

Sale Date: 23 Aug 2013.  Price Paid: £249,950
Sale Date: 26 Jun 1998.  Price Paid: £101,000

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=56174284&sale=84454227&country=england

Asking price: £450,000  (Sold / removed)
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-56174284.html

Previously listed for sale on 20th Sep 2016 
£450,000 - 3 bed end terrace house
http://www.zoopla.co.uk/property-history/53-stamford-park-road/hale/altrincham/wa15-9ez/41683132
 

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1 hour ago, Venger said:

  Meanwhile the renters rent, and wait.  

 

Didn't you say this last year too?

and the year before....and the year before that....and the year before that....and the year before that....and the year before that....and the year before that....and the year before that...and the year before that...repeat an infinitum

Some renters bought. Merryn Somerset Webb a notable bear turned owner (for 'personal reasons' of course) & the renowned RealistBear (but then he was a Realist bear so makes sense). 

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11 minutes ago, Little Frank said:

Didn't you say this last year too?

and the year before....and the year before that....and the year before that....and the year before that....and the year before that....and the year before that....and the year before that...and the year before that...repeat an infinitum

That's right.

And year after year after year with other HPCers claiming buyers are misled / don't know anything / future victims.  

Now prices 50% up, so much more expensive than they tiny 2007 peak, and they still at it.

The only thing I push back against you on is the all-knowing-market aura thing you have, and how you seem to welcome HPI+++  .....  although I have acknowledged all your many market calls have been right, although doesn't mean I have to like it, nor that it's impossible for you to be wrong one day.   

On 3/22/2017 at 11:14 AM, Little Frank said:

We are in the reflationary cycle and have been since 2009. First with equities, later moving into land/houses (around 2012), then real wages (2014), then oil/commodities (2016) and so on.......

Merv was spot on when he said it would be zig & zag but the biggest error that can (and is) made is to believe we haven't had the deflation yet. Huge. The fact that so many still believe that to be the case is confirmation. There are still people who think there wasn't a HPC and there hasn't been an equity bull market. It's quite an astonishing & fascinating real time revelation into the failure of the human mind. 

Will we see more zags along the reflationary journey? Of course! 

 

Edited by Venger

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Manchester. I've a London based colleague who is on the verge of buying a BTL up there. City centre he tells me.

Apparently, he's afraid his kid won't be able to get on the famous "London Housing Ladder" when he's old enough.

He tells me no value left in London anymore. He has a house in the Smoke and another in the countryside. Rents though AirBnB to tourists and the like.

He's looking to buy a 1/2 bed. Hasn't any cash flow really to talk about, so expects to magically MEW from one or both of his current properties. Oh, and he's still got 20+ years to pay them off.

Gloated for year that he's riding the bubble. That IR's won't be climing above 2% in his lifetime possibly. A classic case.

Anyway, I secretly hope he does buy in Manc. Proof that the crash isn't far off. And my colleague will burn on the crash. Lovely.

Btw. I didn't mention that his kid is 10yrs old. Nothing like forward planning, eh ? ;)

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10 minutes ago, Agentimmo said:

Manchester. I've a London based colleague who is on the verge of buying a BTL up there. City centre he tells me.

Apparently, he's afraid his kid won't be able to get on the famous "London Housing Ladder" when he's old enough.

He tells me no value left in London anymore. He has a house in the Smoke and another in the countryside. Rents though AirBnB to tourists and the like.

He's looking to buy a 1/2 bed. Hasn't any cash flow really to talk about, so expects to magically MEW from one or both of his current properties. Oh, and he's still got 20+ years to pay them off.

Gloated for year that he's riding the bubble. That IR's won't be climing above 2% in his lifetime possibly. A classic case.

Anyway, I secretly hope he does buy in Manc. Proof that the crash isn't far off. And my colleague will burn on the crash. Lovely.

Btw. I didn't mention that his kid is 10yrs old. Nothing like forward planning, eh ? ;)

I think he might get a shock around 2020.If we do get a deflationary bust ,inflation and interest rates will be heading north fast a few years after it if central banks go liquidity crazy,perhaps to 8%+.There are far too many people who cant remember what happens during a reflation.I think within 5 years they are going to find out and be given a repeat history lesson.

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5 hours ago, Andy T said:

Not convinced they have their facts right there.

A quick check of central Manchester postcodes shows a 12 month rise of 3-4%

the best performing postcode M21 which I track stands at 6.6%

Everything else in Manchester is in the 3-4% region, even M20 Didsbury can't top 4%

Is it an advertising piece?

 

Isabelle Fraser is the telegraph's current ramping babe journo, born mid 90s, so yeah

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6 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Ripple effect, BTL/Foreign buyers in search of affordability or genuine FTB prosperity?

A lot of Chinese in Manchester. Makes me wonder whether investors in China are buying up the cheap houses?

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55 minutes ago, Bhoy said:

A lot of Chinese in Manchester. Makes me wonder whether investors in China are buying up the cheap houses?

I've also suspected this, there's a direct link between China-Osborne-Northern Powerhouse.

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