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AvoidDebt

Up and up – average asking prices in big monthly jump, says Rightmove

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http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/up-and-up-average-asking-prices-in-big-monthly-jump-says-rightmove/

Vendor greed index still climbing. 

I posted this yesterday. It's gone from 240 to 740 in 4 years.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=40259237&sale=84962553&country=england

No one will buy at anywhere close to this price in Watford. Pure insanity.

Is anyone actually documenting this stuff? Some great writers and thinkers on these boards might be an opportunity to produce a future definitive guide to the build up and complete collapse of UK property. 

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Id ignore any housing related press release between Feb + Jun.

Jyst look at the number ofmortgages being issued and the transaction numbers.

 

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8 minutes ago, AvoidDebt said:

http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/up-and-up-average-asking-prices-in-big-monthly-jump-says-rightmove/

Vendor greed index still climbing. 

I posted this yesterday. It's gone from 240 to 740 in 4 years.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=40259237&sale=84962553&country=england

No one will buy at anywhere close to this price in Watford. Pure insanity.

Is anyone actually documenting this stuff? Some great writers and thinkers on these boards might be an opportunity to produce a future definitive guide to the build up and complete collapse of UK property. 

Three quarters of a million.  For a semi.  In Watford. 

It has more impact if it is spelt out.  As you say madness. And it's fug ugly.  Not in keeping at all 

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Time on market for me is the best indicator.... Asking prices and sold prices very unreliable at low volumes.

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If you buy at 500K then you should be able to sell at 650K three months later. It's a fundamental law of the universe. Of course you can't just flip, you have to add real value, say by going round with the hoover and cleaning the toilet, 

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I hate to say it, but asking prices do matter - any market is largely driven by sentiment. If people think their house is worth more than it is, then they also believe the house they are buying is worth more than it is.

When people put their houses on the market at stupid prices, it encourages others to do the same and before you know it, the prices being seen on Rightmove become "the new normal".

We on this site all know that there is a difference between asking prices and sold prices, unfortunately the proles don't and they are the ones driving the market, not us.

House prices will drop when sentiment drops and a reflection of sentiment dropping with be a drop in asking prices.

Honestly, as much as I like this site, we delude ourselves sometimes by picking and choosing what data to take notice of and what to ignore.

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3 minutes ago, Bhoy said:

I hate to say it, but asking prices do matter - any market is largely driven by sentiment. If people think their house is worth more than it is, then they also believe the house they are buying is worth more than it is.

When people put their houses on the market at stupid prices, it encourages others to do the same and before you know it, the prices being seen on Rightmove become "the new normal".

We on this site all know that there is a difference between asking prices and sold prices, unfortunately the proles don't and they are the ones driving the market, not us.

House prices will drop when sentiment drops and a reflection of sentiment dropping with be a drop in asking prices.

Honestly, as much as I like this site, we delude ourselves sometimes by picking and choosing what data to take notice of and what to ignore.

This dataset tracks initial asking prices only, not any reductions (which would be far more useful to know about)

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13 minutes ago, Bhoy said:

I hate to say it, but asking prices do matter - any market is largely driven by sentiment.

Really?

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14 minutes ago, Bhoy said:

I hate to say it, but asking prices do matter - any market is largely driven by sentiment. If people think their house is worth more than it is, then they also believe the house they are buying is worth more than it is.

When people put their houses on the market at stupid prices, it encourages others to do the same and before you know it, the prices being seen on Rightmove become "the new normal".

We on this site all know that there is a difference between asking prices and sold prices, unfortunately the proles don't and they are the ones driving the market, not us.

House prices will drop when sentiment drops and a reflection of sentiment dropping with be a drop in asking prices.

Honestly, as much as I like this site, we delude ourselves sometimes by picking and choosing what data to take notice of and what to ignore.

No.

What matters is what people the person buying can borrow.

 

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10 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Really?

I'm just fed up of people cherry picking data to suit their views. Yeh, the market might be f#cked and all the ratios pointing to an immanent massive crash but if people don't believe it prices will keep rising.

I honestly don't know who is more deluded sometimes, people that think house prices will rise forever or people on this site that interpret data to suit their own views. FFS 

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11 minutes ago, spyguy said:

No.

What matters is what people the person buying can borrow.

 

To an extent - most people I know are/have largely been buying based on huge cash deposits from their parents so that isn't strictly true. So borrowing + assistance.

Also what someone can borrow is largely irrelevant for overseas cash buyers taking advantage of a weak pound? 

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24 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

This dataset tracks initial asking prices only, not any reductions (which would be far more useful to know about)

You're right and I get it - people kite fly and ask silly prices for their initial market price. I understand this is due to greed, lack of market knowledge and estate agents over inflating prices to win their business. 

I just think if a market was in decline, or about to decline we wouldn't have an increase in asking prices, initial or otherwise. Asking prices would be dropping as people look to offload. I believe yes, if the market starts to turn we would see lots of reductions in prices, you're right.

This isn't aimed at yourself, but here's what I think of this site's analysis of Rightmove asking prices:

Drop: "Yeh obviously dropping, because the market is crashing"

Rise: "Just ignore it, it's sh#t data anyway"

I believe we're heading for a crash, I just don't believe in cherry picking stats.

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7 minutes ago, Bhoy said:

To an extent - most people I know are/have largely been buying based on huge cash deposits from their parents so that isn't strictly true. So borrowing + assistance.

Also what someone can borrow is largely irrelevant for overseas cash buyers taking advantage of a weak pound? 

Hmm, most people i know... 

The market is defined by money supply, but also by sentiment, sentiment lags a long way behind money supply.

As far as i can tell the supply of money is being squeezed, the bomd can fill the gap, but only so long as supply remains relatively low. If a BTL sell off and house building gets going, that will all change.

Just because you can do something and other people (lots of them do it) doesn't make it the right thing to do.

In fact following the ending of joint MIRAS, people were still rushing to buy when the reason to rush had passed by.

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5 minutes ago, frederico said:

Just because you can do something and other people (lots of them do it) doesn't make it the right thing to do.

I can't do it and I know them doing it doesn't make it right.

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14 minutes ago, frederico said:

Hmm, most people i know... 

The market is defined by money supply, but also by sentiment, sentiment lags a long way behind money supply.

As far as i can tell the supply of money is being squeezed, the bomd can fill the gap, but only so long as supply remains relatively low. If a BTL sell off and house building gets going, that will all change.

Just because you can do something and other people (lots of them do it) doesn't make it the right thing to do.

In fact following the ending of joint MIRAS, people were still rushing to buy when the reason to rush had passed by.

 

The post MIRAS joint-relief buyers made their choices, confidently outbidding all others (keeping other people in rented or preventing upsizing at better prices) at ever higher prices.   They got what they wanted in a market.  Adult market participants, and some of them quickly speculated out of it as pure housing speculators, and sold up, allowing others to take the steeper losses to come, when they twigged before others how the market was turning.

Well these are different times.  I can't help it if more confident and far more monied up people (for they have to have something about them with income to be paying these prices) are outbidding my family by fortunes.

It has yet to be proven the more recent buyers are wrong.  No one is coming along with many £10Ks to rebate me any of my expensive rent down the years, and other costs including multiple rental moves, vs massive HPI++++ surges.

Adult housing market participant, including those on big money and with bomad.

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What I don't get is we have the triggering of Article 50 looming (so we're told) to happen within days. Do people know something I don't, or is one of the most significant events in recent political history really not that important to consider when making a purchase using a loan that's going to take a couple of decades to pay off?

There was an initial shock when the vote result came in. Have people learned not to care?

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2 minutes ago, btd1981 said:

What I don't get is we have the triggering of Article 50 looming (so we're told) to happen within days. Do people know something I don't, or is one of the most significant events in recent political history really not that important to consider when making a purchase using a loan that's going to take a couple of decades to pay off?

There was an initial shock when the vote result came in. Have people learned not to care?

In the short/medium term, I dont think leaving the EU is a biggy for the UK.

The UK short term future is going to be driven by the mess up to 2007 and the stupidity after it.

Not being in the EU is a relative minor issue.

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39 minutes ago, btd1981 said:

What I don't get is we have the triggering of Article 50 looming (so we're told) to happen within days. Do people know something I don't, or is one of the most significant events in recent political history really not that important to consider when making a purchase using a loan that's going to take a couple of decades to pay off?

There was an initial shock when the vote result came in. Have people learned not to care?

Why should a woman signing a piece of paper alter how ordinary people go about their everyday lives?

People will still go to work, put petrol in the car, buy food, go on holiday, buy/rent houses, replace their mobiles more often than is necessary etc.

House prices are linked to the availability of credit, not brexit.

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1 hour ago, Bhoy said:

I just think if a market was in decline, or about to decline we wouldn't have an increase in asking prices, initial or otherwise. Asking prices would be dropping as people look to offload. I believe yes, if the market starts to turn we would see lots of reductions in prices, you're right.

This isn't aimed at yourself, but here's what I think of this site's analysis of Rightmove asking prices:

 

I believe we're heading for a crash, I just don't believe in cherry picking stats.

Rightmove's asking price index is the ultimate in stat cherry picking.

Not only does it concentrate on initial asking prices but it also seasonally adjusts the data.It also manages to smooth over plummeting transaction levels.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Sancho Panza said:

Rightmove's asking price index is the ultimate in stat cherry picking.

Not only does it concentrate on initial asking prices but it also fails to seasonally adjusts the data.It also manages to smooth over plummeting transaction levels.

 

 

Corrected

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1 hour ago, btd1981 said:

What I don't get is we have the triggering of Article 50 looming (so we're told) to happen within days. Do people know something I don't, or is one of the most significant events in recent political history really not that important to consider when making a purchase using a loan that's going to take a couple of decades to pay off?

There was an initial shock when the vote result came in. Have people learned not to care?

It will be triggered next Wednesday.

I think it just shows how far the concept of house prices falling is from (most) people's minds. The briefest post-vote Brexit wobble and then business as usual. 

Of course, the fact that we know the Bank of England hasn't the faintest inclination to raise interest rates merely reinforces the widespread view that house prices won't fall, despite Brexit. 

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