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fru-gal

Demographics?

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Not soon enough. But hopefully someone has a useful answer. Although, given most Millenials and generations below below appear to be increasingly zombie like in their acceptance of the intergenerational reduction in housing/living standards, I wonder if it will make a blind bit of difference.

Edited by btl_hater

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7 minutes ago, Automotive Engineer said:

Question is, how long before there are more hostile foreigners than natives/whites?

since 1066? if talking about so called 'native' Saxons. These hostile foreigner Normans have been in charge since.

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1 minute ago, Automotive Engineer said:

Question is, how long before there are more hostile foreigners than natives/whites?

Well, I wouldn't put it in that way, but:

UK demographics are dominated by immigration, either directly, or by immigrants being more likely to start a family.  This isn't necessarily a problem in itself (it might be, but that isn't my argument...) -- but, where demographics can be influenced one way it can be influenced another.

What will happen to the UK if the immigration moves over the last 20 years were reversed?  Moreover, in iGen/Millenials we've bred a cohort who don't have particularly strong ties to the UK (short term jobs, no house, no kids (yet)), and who are familiar with international travel / international jobs market -- so the demographic needed to support the oldies haven't been particularly tied into the UK, and could all move away in a relatively short timescale.  Notably, the real earners are the ones without the kids (yet) -- the ones with children are the 16 hours + tax credits crowd.

If all this were to happen all their (government) planning would be completely screwed.  Our demographics would revert to something close to Japan.  I don't consider all this to be the most likely outcome, but I do consider it to be a real possibility,

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4 hours ago, dgul said:

Well, I wouldn't put it in that way, but:

UK demographics are dominated by immigration, either directly, or by immigrants being more likely to start a family.  This isn't necessarily a problem in itself (it might be, but that isn't my argument...) -- but, where demographics can be influenced one way it can be influenced another.

What will happen to the UK if the immigration moves over the last 20 years were reversed?  Moreover, in iGen/Millenials we've bred a cohort who don't have particularly strong ties to the UK (short term jobs, no house, no kids (yet)), and who are familiar with international travel / international jobs market -- so the demographic needed to support the oldies haven't been particularly tied into the UK, and could all move away in a relatively short timescale.  Notably, the real earners are the ones without the kids (yet) -- the ones with children are the 16 hours + tax credits crowd.

If all this were to happen all their (government) planning would be completely screwed.  Our demographics would revert to something close to Japan.  I don't consider all this to be the most likely outcome, but I do consider it to be a real possibility,

There are some scary figures floating out there, which I will be honest with you, I have not checked, but if true it would indicate there is going to be a significant shift in political power from Europeans to Muslims. Was it 1/3 of all babies born in France are to none Europeans? Mostly muslim.

That's not going to bode well for future generations. Personally I'm shitting myslef at the thought

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4 hours ago, ThePiltdownMan said:

For the most part the boomer will be repaced by some Gen Xer with inherited wealth, unless the end of life care really eats into the estate. 

As it should do.

The bairns must look after pops themselves if they want the moola afterwards, or be prepared to forfeit to the state.

They didn't "earn" it anyway.

No government will have the raw cajones to do it though.

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5 hours ago, fru-gal said:

How long before there are more assetless Millenials/Generation X-ers than Boomers and pensioners?

Given the way the UK Baby Boom is defined with its end being marked by the peak post war birth year of 1966 then I would suggest that a lot of Generation Xers will be pension age themselves before it happens

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3 minutes ago, Automotive Engineer said:

There are some scary figures floating out there, which I will be honest with you, I have not checked, but if true it would indicate there is going to be a significant shift in political power from Europeans to Muslims. Was it 1/3 of all babies born in France are to none Europeans? Mostly muslim.

That's not going to bode well for future generations. Personally I'm shitting myslef at the thought

Its not just that, its the total shutting down of any criticism of the ROP that i find disturbing and a real sign of the direction of travel.

I have one big move left, and no kids, all of the above will be taken in to consideration.

 

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5 hours ago, fru-gal said:

How long before there are more assetless Millenials/Generation X-ers than Boomers and pensioners?

Demographics for BTL is interesting. BTL property ownership clustered in the hands of 50+ year olds, so in about two decades maybe a lot will come back on the market at once. 

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37 minutes ago, Patient London FTB said:

Demographics for BTL is interesting. BTL property ownership clustered in the hands of 50+ year olds, so in about two decades maybe a lot will come back on the market at once. 

You can bet that by that time the banks will be offering probate loans (in a big way), where they offer the whole of the IT as a loan based on the rental incomes.  The only way the bubble bursts is for people (the children) to think at that time that there are better places to invest their money (which there will be).

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1 hour ago, satch said:

in any case the young have accepted the new paradigm; rent for life, pay for your education and no pension.

Really? In the last 2 years the p1ssed-off young took the Lib Dems down from 57 MPs to 8 (taxi!) and wrestled the Labour Party away from the Blairites. That's 2 out of the 3 main parties fed feet first into the electoral woodchipper because they were ignoring the young. If the Tories keep ignoring the young and allow homeownership to keep collapsing the same thing will happen to them eventually.

Edited by Dorkins

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1 hour ago, satch said:

The young get on the streets to protest against Brexit. 'black lives matter' and more immigration but do not get on the streets and protest about house prices, uni fees and pensions.

They will when they grow up.

(and realise that Millenials + iGen outnumber Boomers, if only they'd get their act together)

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18 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

"The mental health needs of baby boomers are substantial in many respects, with 18% reported to have depression or anxiety disorder. This is twice the proportion in the generation born before 1945"

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/health-of-the-baby-boomer-generation

Generation snowflake.

TBH I think that is about the proportion of the population that have anxiety and/or depression.  It is just that baby boomers feel the need to go on about it / dwell on it* (whereas the pre-1945 generations just got on with things)

[* I do think that serious mental illnesses, like depression, aren't resolved with a 'sort yourself out', but in 90% of that 20% it is probably the right approach -- ie, 2% of those boomers actually have a mental illness that requires significant psychological intervention.]

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1 hour ago, satch said:

The young get on the streets to protest against Brexit. 'black lives matter' and more immigration but do not get on the streets and protest about house prices, uni fees and pensions.

Protesting about house prices won't get you as many facebook likes as black lives matter.

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1 hour ago, satch said:

The young get on the streets to protest against Brexit. 'black lives matter' and more immigration but do not get on the streets and protest about house prices, uni fees and pensions.

UK governments gain power through elections, not street protests.

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8 minutes ago, satch said:

Protests against the Poll Tax seemed to have an effect .... Can't Pay Won't Pay coupled with non-payment .... reversal of the Poll Tax and the start of the end for Facher

The Council Tax regime that Major's government implemented instead ended up being very similar to the planned Poll Tax, they just staggered it slightly to make it look like progressive taxation. That's why the billionaire living in an 8 figure mansion only pays twice as much council tax as his cleaner who lives in a studio flat.

Council Tax is Poll Tax wearing a fake moustache.

Edited by Dorkins

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28 minutes ago, satch said:

Protests against the Poll Tax seemed to have an effect .... Can't Pay Won't Pay coupled with non-payment .... reversal of the Poll Tax and the start of the end for Facher

Yeah right.  I was there.  They just re-branded it.

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1 minute ago, satch said:

Not disputing any of that but the Poll Tax Riots certainly made the MPs sit up and take notice.

But then a couple of years later the government pretty much implemented the Poll Tax anyway just under a different name. The Tories continued in power for another 7 years after Thatcher got the boot.

Street protests attract a lot of attention but elections matter far more in influencing government policy. GenY have only just started to flex their electoral muscles and have already had a major impact on 2 of the 3 main parties.

I would guess that the first government to be formed on the back of GenY electoral support will come to power in about the mid 2020s. By that point there won't be enough comfortable older homeowners left to elect a majority government.

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Just now, Dorkins said:

Street protests attract a lot of attention but elections matter far more in influencing government policy. GenY have only just started to flex their electoral muscles and have already had a major impact on 2 of the 3 main parties.

I would guess that the first government to be formed on the back of GenY electoral support will come to power in about the mid 2020s. By that point there won't be enough comfortable older homeowners left to elect a majority government.

Like your thinking. I would throw in the rent strike movement rippling around a few universities at the moment. Too early to tell if it will build into anything that has real impact, but interesting to think that having punished the Lib Dems for tuition fees students might be looking for a new issue to bash politicians on.  

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9 minutes ago, satch said:

So another 8 years before they start to get a voice via the ballot box

Could be sooner than that. Politicians are always fighting the next election, so if they expect to need votes from priced out younger people to win an election in 2025 they may start to implement pro-young policies in the final years of the Parliament preceding that.

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