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apom

Conversation With A Bull

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Bull

"You will never be able to afford to buy a house"

Bear

"That is odd, I earn more then 80% of the population, where will I live?"

Bull

"You will have to rent"

Bear

"Thats is odd, if I cannot afford to pay for a home how can I afford to cover a mortgage. leasing agents fees and all that lot on top?"

Bull

"You will have to"

bear

"Are you sure, why don't I just rent from someone who bought a few years ago.. ? It's only very recently that prices have been this high.. If I rent from an older landlord I am happy, he is happy and all is good.."

bull

"Look Property is expensive, it will stay expensive and you and your generation will either have to embrace a big reduction in quality of life with an Interest Only mortgage or get used to renting"

Bear

"Well.. I don't know really what to say to that... I am of to the pub are you coming..?"

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Bull

"You will never be able to afford to buy a house"

Bear

"That is odd, I earn more then 80% of the population, where will I live?"

Bull

"You will have to rent"

Bear

"Thats is odd, if I cannot afford to pay for a home how can I afford to cover a mortgage. leasing agents fees and all that lot on top?"

Bull

"You will have to"

bear

"Are you sure, why don't I just rent from someone who bought a few years ago.. ? It's only very recently that prices have been this high.. If I rent from an older landlord I am happy, he is happy and all is good.."

bull

"Look Property is expensive, it will stay expensive and you and your generation will either have to embrace a big reduction in quality of life with an Interest Only mortgage or get used to renting"

Bear

"Well.. I don't know really what to say to that... I am of to the pub are you coming..?"

Bull

"sorry, I can't afford to...got a mortgage to pay you know."

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Bull

"You will never be able to afford to buy a house"

Bear

"That is odd, I earn more then 80% of the population, where will I live?"

Bull

"You will have to rent"

Bear

"Thats is odd, if I cannot afford to pay for a home how can I afford to cover a mortgage. leasing agents fees and all that lot on top?"

Bull

"You will have to"

bear

"Are you sure, why don't I just rent from someone who bought a few years ago.. ? It's only very recently that prices have been this high.. If I rent from an older landlord I am happy, he is happy and all is good.."

bull

"Look Property is expensive, it will stay expensive and you and your generation will either have to embrace a big reduction in quality of life with an Interest Only mortgage or get used to renting"

Bear

"Well.. I don't know really what to say to that... I am of to the pub are you coming..?"

Let's try it this way, shall we?

Bull

"You will never be able to afford to buy a house relying solely on your own financial resources"

Bear

"That is odd, I earn more then 80% of the population, where will I live?"

Bull

"You will have to find someone else to help out -- buy jointly with your girlfriend, inherit some money, receive financial assistance from your parents. You're competing for scarce housing with people who do any or all of those three things, so of course you're going to have problems if you don't do any of them. And yes, I know that at least two of those three options are largely outside your control -- perhaps you should be calling for 100% rates of inheritance tax and capital transfer tax to ensure a level playing field by ruling out options 2 and 3."

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Let's try it this way, shall we?

Bull

"You will never be able to afford to buy a house relying solely on your own financial resources"

Bear

"That is odd, I earn more then 80% of the population, where will I live?"

Bull

"You will have to find someone else to help out -- buy jointly with your girlfriend, inherit some money, receive financial assistance from your parents. You're competing for scarce housing with people who do any or all of those three things, so of course you're going to have problems if you don't do any of them. And yes, I know that at least two of those three options are largely outside your control -- perhaps you should be calling for 100% rates of inheritance tax and capital transfer tax to ensure a level playing field by ruling out options 2 and 3."

Bear, are you sure..

That would be strange as I can see FTB's are down to 7% and BTL loosing money in my area. If I was to do as you say I would have to rely on all other FTB's doing the same...

Why don't I just wait for prices to fall, as they always have?

Bull?

Edited by apom

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Let's try it this way, shall we?

Bull

"You will never be able to afford to buy a house relying solely on your own financial resources"

Bear

"That is odd, I earn more then 80% of the population, where will I live?"

Bull

"You will have to find someone else to help out -- buy jointly with your girlfriend, inherit some money, receive financial assistance from your parents. You're competing for scarce housing with people who do any or all of those three things, so of course you're going to have problems if you don't do any of them. And yes, I know that at least two of those three options are largely outside your control -- perhaps you should be calling for 100% rates of inheritance tax and capital transfer tax to ensure a level playing field by ruling out options 2 and 3."

More Nu Labour utter twaddle Zorn!

Housing is not scarce..... Brief look in any estate agents windows will confirm.

Sit back and watch the prices continue to fall, as they have been doing since June '04, thats the best advice to anyone being led down the path of buying at the top of a huge asset bubble.

PS Zorn, get back to work now please as we are financing your wages...Public Servant remember....

Edited by Randall Herbert

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Bear, are you sure..

That would be strange as I can see FTB's are down to 7% and BTL loosing money in my area. If I was to do as you say I would have to rely on all other FTB's doing the same...

Why don't I just wait for prices to fall, as they always have?

Bull?

Bull: Don't delude yourself, prices never fall!

Bear: Apart from the mid 70's and late 80's/early 90's?

Bull: But that was different.

Bear: How?

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Housing is not scarce..... Brief look in any estate agents windows will confirm.

There are around 25 million houses in the UK. There is demand for over 100 million (the average person would have at least two houses if they cost nothing). That sounds like scarcity to me.

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There are around 25 million houses in the UK. There is demand for over 100 million (the average person would have at least two houses if they cost nothing). That sounds like scarcity to me.

What utter nonsense - I'd like a dozen homes but that doesn't mean there's demand for 720 million homes in the UK. You are confusing aspiration for demand - the desire and ability to pay.

Ultimately all resources are scarce, that doesn't mean that prices are automatically high. There is a limited amount of petrol in the world, that doesn't mean that fuel costs £100,000 per gallon.

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PS Zorn, get back to work now please as we are financing your wages...Public Servant remember....

As it happens, I don't work in the public sector. But I find it odd that you think public servants should be at work at 7:16 in the morning when I posted the comment to which you were replying.

What utter nonsense - I'd like a dozen homes but that doesn't mean there's demand for 720 million homes in the UK. You are confusing aspiration for demand - the desire and ability to pay.

Ultimately all resources are scarce, that doesn't mean that prices are automatically high. There is a limited amount of petrol in the world, that doesn't mean that fuel costs £100,000 per gallon.

No, but it means that fuel can't cost nothing.

Oxygen is not scarce. And it costs nothing. But if it there was any unfulfilled demand for it, it would have to cost something.

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Let's try it this way, shall we?

Bull

"You will never be able to afford to buy a house relying solely on your own financial resources"

Bear

"That is odd, I earn more then 80% of the population, where will I live?"

Bull

"You will have to find someone else to help out -- buy jointly with your girlfriend, inherit some money, receive financial assistance from your parents. You're competing for scarce housing with people who do any or all of those three things, so of course you're going to have problems if you don't do any of them. And yes, I know that at least two of those three options are largely outside your control -- perhaps you should be calling for 100% rates of inheritance tax and capital transfer tax to ensure a level playing field by ruling out options 2 and 3."

Bear

"Nah I'll just move to the states and build on virgin land."

Bull

"You can't afford it"

Bear

"Really I could buy 400 acres of Wisconsin on Ebay for $45,000, seller financed on a truely fixed rate."

Bull

"But then who will pay for the NHS when I retire"

Bear

"I couldn't give a flying f*ck"

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As it happens, I don't work in the public sector. But I find it odd that you think public servants should be at work at 7:16 in the morning when I posted the comment to which you were replying.

Out of curiousity where do you work zorn. I would guess it`s something to do with property or the lending industry.

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There are around 25 million houses in the UK. There is demand for over 100 million (the average person would have at least two houses if they cost nothing). That sounds like scarcity to me.

Bull

There is a housing shortage.

Bear

That could be argued, however its been getting better. A decade ago there were 2.76 homes for every person, now there are estimated to be 2.6 and currently we are building a home for every 2.1 person population growth. So if there is a housing shortage it is better then all the booms and bust of before and if there was a housing shortage how come not all homes are selling and infact we are seeing a reduction in price against new builds that doesent even reflect the "incentives" offered against each property

Bull

There is a housing shortage, it is reported upon in the BBC every time the market takes a scare.

Bear

I agree, there is an issue there, more that reflects more on whom you believe is the best source of information an estate agent or the ONS.

Niether are perfect, but before I take on debt that is not going to decrease due to inflation I am going to pay more atterntion to real world falling prices that I see and official numbers that I can look at and draw my own conclusion. Not a conclusion to convince others, but a conclusion that has never been succesfully argued against, a conclusion that is bearing fruit with the actual real world happenings and a conclusion that models not only what is happening now but what has happened time and time again in the past. Infact the only thing that has never happened before and is not happening now is your theory. Infact I see today reports that inflation is on the up again.. This is of course innevitable as the massive debt required to buy a home causes wage push inflation. To this end Interest Rates can not fall until this inflation force is stopped, which I don't think can happen when such a huge amount of inflation has happened in house prices.

Bull.

(please reply here, you can use "mortgage approvals rise" I will debunk as I have had a mortgage approval and I never even asked, that has appeared common recently, mortgage transactions also showed an increase, but the percentage of those that were re-mortgages you will yourself find staggering

and any reported increase in selling prices does not reflect what I am seeing on the ground, I see some selling, far more fail to sell then are sold and many are selling for less. I know that I can buy more then I could a year ago. )

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1 hour ahead, probably TTRTR in Sweden in one of his many Bull shite disguises!!

No he has come out a very big EA. ;)

QUOTE(zorn @ Jan 26 2006, 12:22 PM)

Except that houses are selling, which answers your question. We just finished the busiest fourth quarter for transaction volumes since 1988.

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No he has come out a very big EA. ;)

(zorn @ Jan 26 2006, 12:22 PM)

Except that houses are selling, which answers your question. We just finished the busiest fourth quarter for transaction volumes since 1988.

guess what happened next ? :)

Edited by sign_of_the_times

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Bull

"You will never be able to afford to buy a house"

Bear

"That is odd, I earn more then 80% of the population, where will I live?"

Bull

"You will have to rent"

Bear

"Thats is odd, if I cannot afford to pay for a home how can I afford to cover a mortgage. leasing agents fees and all that lot on top?"

Bull

"You will have to"

bear

"Are you sure, why don't I just rent from someone who bought a few years ago.. ? It's only very recently that prices have been this high.. If I rent from an older landlord I am happy, he is happy and all is good.."

bull

"Look Property is expensive, it will stay expensive and you and your generation will either have to embrace a big reduction in quality of life with an Interest Only mortgage or get used to renting"

Bear

"Well.. I don't know really what to say to that... I am of to the pub are you coming..?"

None of this makes any sense of course. If virtually no one is "buying" in the current market - then the properties that are apparently "worth £300k" [e.g.] cannot be "worth £300k" anymore - because there's no one left to buy them for that sum!! So - as things carry on as they are now -- none of the properties apparently "worth £xyzk" are actually worth that at all! BECASUE THERE IS NO ONE AGREEING TO PAY THAT -- i.e. the "MARKET" is not there anymore. It's just a logical progression to a downward spiral in prices until a significalt volume of buyers feel able and willing to pay the price offered. AND - FTB's out there -- you MUST understand that - if you ALL - EVERYONE OF YOU - offer ONLY WHAT YOU CAN AFFORD - THAT IS WHAT THE MARKET PRICE WILL END UP BEING - i.e. WHAT YOU CAN AFFORD!!!!! - Which should be no more that 3.5x your annual income. Until the "prices" [rigged totally as things stand now - it's a case of just saying "NO!!"] - reach 3.5x your annual incme - just DO NOT BUY!!!! SIMPLE!!!!!!!!!

Edited by eric pebble

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Let's try it this way, shall we?

Bull

"You will never be able to afford to buy a house relying solely on your own financial resources"

Bear

"That is odd, I earn more then 80% of the population, where will I live?"

Bull

"You will have to find someone else to help out -- buy jointly with your girlfriend, inherit some money, receive financial assistance from your parents. You're competing for scarce housing with people who do any or all of those three things, so of course you're going to have problems if you don't do any of them. And yes, I know that at least two of those three options are largely outside your control -- perhaps you should be calling for 100% rates of inheritance tax and capital transfer tax to ensure a level playing field by ruling out options 2 and 3."

Bear

Or I could just wait a bit longer, since according to the Halifax report houses in my area are down 3% last year.

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Bull

"You will never be able to afford to buy a house"

Bear

"That is odd, I earn more then 80% of the population, where will I live?"

Bull

"You will have to rent"

Bear

"So if I earn more than 80% of the poulationand can;t afford a house, who is going to buy your house when you want to downsize? Or when your kids go to sell it when you;ve popped your cloggs?"

Bull

"Ermmmm?...."

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There are around 25 million houses in the UK. There is demand for over 100 million (the average person would have at least two houses if they cost nothing). That sounds like scarcity to me.

Sounds to me like there's been a demand problem, not a supply problem.

Much of the demand over the past few years has been speculative, fuelled by expectations of future capital appreciation. In a flat or falling market, this speculative demand can very quickly evaporate.

After all, the size and shape of the population hasn't changed much since 1996, yet house prices have trebled in that time. If there is a shortage of supply now, why wasn't there a shortage of supply then?

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Sounds to me like there's been a demand problem, not a supply problem.

Much of the demand over the past few years has been speculative, fuelled by expectations of future capital appreciation. In a flat or falling market, this speculative demand can very quickly evaporate.

After all, the size and shape of the population hasn't changed much since 1996, yet house prices have trebled in that time. If there is a shortage of supply now, why wasn't there a shortage of supply then?

There is a shortage of supply of the best housing. Decent quality in a decent location for a given set of criteria.

There is a huge over-supply of the rest.

It's a two tier highly fragmented market.

More and more of the population expects the right to buy their own house. Most want to live in the best they can afford and then compromise down.

It is negative price ripples down to a competitive plateau out from the best areas that we are seeing at the moment. Whether or not the individual plateaux hold remains the big question.

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Bull: Now is the time to buy - the market is always on the rise!

Bear: Is it?

Bull: Of course... we've had low inflation for years and house prices increasing for nearly a decade

Bear: But what about an HPC?

Bull: Won't happen

Bear: Why not?

Bull: Inflation is low and the market is very competitive

Bear: But inflation isn't really as low as if you use CPI Index, in which most things aren't accounted for

Bull: The market will rise

Bear: What about the crashes in the 70's, late 80's and early 90's....

Bull: Sometimes the market goes down... but not now...

Bear: Prices have risen due to artificially low interest rates sparked by the US setting rates to 1% after 9/11

Bull: And they have stayed low and will continue to!

Bear: Why should they... interest rates have been slowly rising for the last few years and will eventually rise

Bull: Erm....

Bear: If House Prices are very high and interest rates very low the only options are for HPI to decrease and interest rate increase, isn't it?

Bull: No - people could borrow more or get more money from friends, family etc. maybe relatives could MEW.

Bear: Ah, you mean take on much larger and risky debts!

Bull: Err.... Yes

Bear: So what happens if rates rise?

Bull: They pay more on their mortgage

Bear: But they've borrowed to be able to get into the market... why should they then pay even more?

Bull: Because that how the market works

Bear: Only if people are willing to tolerate it - your property is only worth as much as others are willing to pay for it!

Bull: Bah-humbug - you don't know wat you talking about. I have to go to one of my 4 jobs now

Bear: I've got a holiday to book, new TV to buy and £200 quid rent due for the month......

Edited by pyewackitt

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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