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Sandwiches33

worst decade for pay in 210 years

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3 hours ago, Sandwiches33 said:

the powers that be seem to have either taken leave of their senses,or are doing this deliberately.

high tax/high regulation economies ALWAYS fail.

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3 hours ago, canbuywontbuy said:

Hopefully we can borrow more to make up the shortfall! That'll work!

and we can bribe people with their own money to buy an overpriced asset or two...like HTB/ property

..and maybe kick them in the nads at the same time..like diesel scrappage schemes/VED

Edited by oracle

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5 hours ago, Sandwiches33 said:

I honestly cannot see how these hous eprices can keep climbing now without a catastrophy.

People spend less in the high street, so the UK needs to grow its population by 500,000 a year while net borrowing £50Bn+ a year to counteract the drop in demand per capita (because their wages are flat, costs-before-you-leave-the-front-door very high).  This is a downward spiral.  Less demand, less GDP per capita, need more people to prop up aggregate GDP, need to net borrow stupid amounts.  Oh, let's raise IRs! Too many people deep in debt to raise IRs....

Edited by canbuywontbuy

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18 hours ago, Sandwiches33 said:

Periods of poor wage growth have always been followed by periods of higher wage growth, especially on a rolling 5-10 year basis.

Shouldn't come as a surprise that following the worse financial crisis in a century real wages were depressed.

Future however is rosy (With all the gloom around how could it not be)

 

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14 hours ago, zugzwang said:

ITV Tonight: Is Britain heading for a new credit crunch?

On now.
 

 

No, still the same one. We still haven't actually had the crash yet.

Edited by Errol

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sorry, can't post image of rolling 10 yr real wages since 1850. You'll have to click on the link above. 

 

All the same reasons being touted for why it's different today were also touted in the 1930s. Guff then, guff now too.

Edited by Little Frank

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37 minutes ago, Little Frank said:

Periods of poor wage growth have always been followed by periods of higher wage growth, especially on a rolling 5-10 year basis.

Shouldn't come as a surprise that following the worse financial crisis in a century real wages were depressed.

Future however is rosy (With all the gloom around how could it not be)

 

A someone who would like a wage rise I just dont see it.

I see more pressures from automation driving down wages. I seen a fast food chain boasting yesterday about how many savings they are making by sacking staff and replacing them with screens and machines.Sorry I cant remember what one.

Also having access to the whole world as borders seem less and less relevant increases competition for work. I cannot see where "wage rises" would come from? 

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1 hour ago, honkydonkey said:

Cy7bnGqXcAAIVQj.jpg

What a surprise.

Look at the that dip that started when the first of ~6m Eastern europeans started turning up.

Blair/Brown you pair of stupid cntus.

 

 

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21 minutes ago, spyguy said:

What a surprise.

Look at the that dip that started when the first of ~6m Eastern europeans started turning up.

Blair/Brown you pair of stupid cntus.

 

 

Not really. It's a rolling 10 yr average. 

Clear impact from China/WTO & Financial crash though

But if you believe everything is caused by a few migrants then you'll see that in every chart.

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5 minutes ago, Little Frank said:

Not really. It's a rolling 10 yr average. 

Clear impact from China/WTO & Financial crash though

But if you believe everything is caused by a few migrants then you'll see that in every chart.

Theres not a few. Offically theres ~3m, reality its about 6m+.

Look at how smooth the line is going down. Compare that to the jagged line previously.

Its really is all tax credits and EU migrants chasing them.

 

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21 hours ago, Sandwiches33 said:

Sadly you are wrong if you think rents are linked to wages - they are not.  Folks will have to share if supply is constrained.  The more folks share the more remote the link with average income...look around the world at other third world countries and you will see over crowding and multiple incomes supporting rents.

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.

Cy7bnGqXcAAIVQj.jpg

Interesting chart.  Thanks honkydonkey for posting it.

From that chart wage growth (10 year MA) peaked at almost exactly the same time as Thatcher left office to be replaced by Major and then Blair/Brown and NuLabour with real wage growth declining to the current levels apart from one blip around 2000.  Probably that was the millennium effect.

It peaks roughly around the time of the Schengen Agreement, the Single European Act, the Maastricht Treaty and the Exchange Rate Mechanism.

Before that peak it seems to have increased pretty continually since just after the 2nd World War - although it might not have felt like that to some at the time as there was also a lot of inflation etc.

Wage growth declining doesn't necessarily mean that living standards go down - depending on inflation etc - but with all the statistical manipulation and house price inflation you can be pretty sure that average living standards (along with quality of life) have in fact gone down and in some cases a lot.

Edited by billybong

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Worst wage growth in 210 years is quite a record and seems to tie in with base rates being the lowest for at least 5000 years - which might suggest that there might be worse to come on wage growth to match the record on interest rates.  

There's some really heavy troughing going on in some places.  Osborne nearly £1 million a year for 1 day a week at BlackRock :rolleyes:

 

the-5000-year-history-of-interest-rates-shows-just-how-historically-low-us-rates-are-right-now.jpg

 

Edited by billybong

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21 hours ago, Sandwiches33 said:

Help to Rent next

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^

First msn link

Quote

. The UK is in the midst of the worst decade for pay growth since the Napoleonic wars two centuries ago, according to the Resolution Foundation

The BoE chart only goes back to 1850 (167 years) and apparently the previous worst time on the chart was about 1860 which was about the time of the American Civil War.

The period the Resolution Foundation refers to (2 centuries ago) isn't shown on the above BoE wage growth chart.

The Resolution Foundation claim seems to suggest that from their upto date figures things are worse than forecast on the BoE wage growth chart and even worse than during the American Civil War.  Just as an aside, do they favour remain?

(The Napoleonic Wars (1803–1815)

Edited by billybong

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42 minutes ago, Wayward said:

Sadly you are wrong if you think rents are linked to wages - they are not.  Folks will have to share if supply is constrained.  The more folks share the more remote the link with average income...look around the world at other third world countries and you will see over crowding and multiple incomes supporting rents.

are you saying wages are not a factor?

I would say it is a combination of factors hence why in the third world people will crowd to rent at £100 a month and people in london will crowd to rent at £2000 a month. Wgae still have  a big impact.

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