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hi5lo5

Halifax HPI up ?(0 1% vs forecast 0.4%)

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Just now, hi5lo5 said:

Thanks for pointing it out. Apologies for not checking. Forexfactory seems to have wrong info.

It's in red because it was worse than predicted. Not because it was negative.

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12 minutes ago, Oliver Sutton said:

It's in red because it was worse BETTER than predicted. Not because it was negative.

 

32 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

How much did they revise last months down ?

See the other thread on this topic, they revised last months figure by 0.2% making this one look positive.

 

If they are fiddling the figures then things must be really bad.

 

The question is...ARE they fiddling the figures.

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16 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

 

See the other thread on this topic, they revised last months figure by 0.2% making this one look positive.

 

If they are fiddling the figures then things must be really bad.

 

The question is...ARE they fiddling the figures.

The whole HPI is for conveniencing the public who have thier ?? deep in debt and encourage them to pay up the debt on their home which has a far more lesser value than thier debt.

So the vested parties have to get this party going forever by hook or crook.

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14 minutes ago, hi5lo5 said:

The whole HPI is for conveniencing the public who have thier ?? deep in debt and encourage them to pay up the debt on their home which has a far more lesser value than thier debt.

So the vested parties have to get this party going forever by hook or crook.

Nothing lasts forever.

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5 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

 

See the other thread on this topic, they revised last months figure by 0.2% making this one look positive.

 

If they are fiddling the figures then things must be really bad.

 

The question is...ARE they fiddling the figures.

They always fiddle smooth the figures, as do all companies and governments.

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Last year I questioned Nationwide's data on price earnings ratio: 

Dear Robert,

I have recently read your HPI report and was most intrigued by the last graph in the report, "UK House Price to Earning Ratio." Could you please help me to understand the calculation and particularly the reference point used for the UK average/median wage? Only, based on the assertion of the current UK average, the price earnings ratio I calculate would be closer to 7.2 times median wages and well above the 6 times quoted. 
 
I look forward to your response.
 
 
and his response...
 
 

Thank you for your enquiry.  It is the mean annual earnings that is used for the calculation rather than median.  The mean is used as it is a closer representation of typical earnings for home buyers.  The data is sourced from the ONS, using a combination of the Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings, the average weekly earnings index and Nationwide estimates.  The average earnings figure used in the calculation is currently c£34,000.

 

Kind regards,

Robert

 

Robert Gardner

Chief Economist

Nationwide Building Society

In principal I have never trusted rounded figures. So with that answer I concluded it was fudged! I am now certain they do this to the HPI figure also and I would expect Halifax do the same!

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A win win for Halifax. The headline of a whole percentage point fall (1.1% opposed to 0.9%), was avoided last month and the adjustment means that February appears to be positive.

A bunch of Pen 15s.

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2 hours ago, tep1 said:

Last year I questioned Nationwide's data on price earnings ratio: 

Dear Robert,

I have recently read your HPI report and was most intrigued by the last graph in the report, "UK House Price to Earning Ratio." Could you please help me to understand the calculation and particularly the reference point used for the UK average/median wage? Only, based on the assertion of the current UK average, the price earnings ratio I calculate would be closer to 7.2 times median wages and well above the 6 times quoted. 
 
I look forward to your response.
 
 
and his response...
 
 

Thank you for your enquiry.  It is the mean annual earnings that is used for the calculation rather than median.  The mean is used as it is a closer representation of typical earnings for home buyers.  The data is sourced from the ONS, using a combination of the Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings, the average weekly earnings index and Nationwide estimates.  The average earnings figure used in the calculation is currently c£34,000.

 

Kind regards,

Robert

 

Robert Gardner

Chief Economist

Nationwide Building Society

In principal I have never trusted rounded figures. So with that answer I concluded it was fudged! I am now certain they do this to the HPI figure also and I would expect Halifax do the same!

How is mean more representative than median in this case? Throw in a few footballers and watch the mean rocket :o

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2 hours ago, btd1981 said:

How is mean more representative than median in this case? Throw in a few footballers and watch the mean rocket :o

Agree. Plus the historical and current statistics that the pareto-style top 20% earn 80% of the income (or similar ratios AFAIK)

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2 hours ago, satch said:

It is not representative or honest but it 'proves' property prices are not in a bubble ......... and this is particularly inaccurate when dealing with wages when the mean can be totally unrepresentative when there are a few massive figures that distort the mean. I suspect that eg Wayne Rooney's class mates,say 29 of them earning 1k per week have mean and median of 1k per week add in Rooney to make the total 30 and his 300k per week their mean earnings are now 10.9k per week ..... the median would be say 1.1k.

Good example of the mean / median difference.

It's such a basic element of any calculation that it's hard to see choosing to use the mean as anything other than deception. It's not some lurking variable in a complicated ONS analysis, it's a brute-force way to jack up the average earnings. The revision of the previous month is at least a bit more subtle, though it still requires a complicit media not to point out the potential for misrepresentation.

Nevertheless, 0.1% isn't going to draw in the herds looking for capital gains.

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Of course they are cooking the books. Anyone that takes a look at the current prices and dosent shout out: obscene, is part and parcel of the scam. Martin Ellis from Halifax comes out with the same BS every month about low supply yet there are hundreds of thousands of properties floating around under his nose on rightmove that fail to sell every month, clown... Wonder how much HPI is worth to him personally.

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Median is more robust to outliers  / skewed data  (eg. Footballers wages ) and NOT an accurate representative figure

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On 07/03/2017 at 9:42 AM, Oliver Sutton said:

Thought it was up 0.1%.

http://static.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/mortgages/pdf/February-2017-House-Price_Index.pdf

Last month's revised down by 0,2%. How convenient. Or it would have been down 0.1%

Sorry, please can you point me to where it says last month's has been revised down? I can't find "revised" or "0.2" in the PDF. (Want to be able to prove that they do this)

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