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Budget 2017 - No spending sprees

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There will be no "spending sprees" in Wednesday's Budget, Chancellor Philip Hammond has warned. He said the economy had proven to be "robust" but there was still a need for fiscal discipline ahead of leaving the EU. Mr Hammond criticised those who wanted higher borrowing as "confused" and "reckless".

Mr Hammond said the country needed to "get back to living within our means" and reduce its borrowing. BBC

Everything sounds impressive, but we will see what he does on Wednesday and then we will judge .

Edited by rollover

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3 minutes ago, rollover said:

Everything sounds impressive, but we will see what he does on Wednesday and then we will judge .

No mention of the £170bn that Carney conjoured into existence last August?

'living within our means', my @rse.

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£1.69Tn (or 1.69 x 1000,000 x 1000,000 or 1.69 million millions) officially published UK national debt.

= £53,000+ per UK worker (~32 million people).

Most people still actually believe the UK debt has been paid down when it has been increasing by more than £1.3Bn/week!
Likely to be a gloriously successful figure of ~£70Bn/year (only a measly 70 thousand millions) to keep the country standing still, unless you consider the anemic fiddled GDP growth figures sub 3% as growth when your static wage has seen a purchasing power lower than +10 years ago.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4151940/The-national-debt-soared-251million-DAY-2016.html

Analogy: RMS Titanic 2 hour after the impact and you are a worker in 3rd class below decks. And the band plays "Everything is Awsome!"...

 

Expecting more builder and lender props, scrappage schemes... To help the fabled "hard working strivers" and illusory FTBs bying +400k $hit boxes in London etc.

 

Edited by DarkHorseWaits-NoMore
typo

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The issue is Carnage Carney's QE just goes into further inflating asset bubbles like property.

There is an entirely legitimate argument for rolling back austerity and investing in infrastructure, schools, as Brexit presents an opportunity to turn the country around from reliance on house bubbles and financialisation. 

Instead, we can build an economy around exports, specialised manufacturing, and tech/digital. 

Carney needs to go. Hammond needs to roll back austerity.

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40 minutes ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

£1.69Tn (or 1.69 x 1000,000 x 1000,000 or 1.69 million millions) officially published UK national debt.

= £53,000+ per UK worker (~32 million people).

Most people still actually believe the UK debt has been paid down when it has been increasing by more than £1.3Bn/week!
Likely to be a gloriously successful figure of ~£70Bn/year (only a measly 70 thousand millions) to keep the country standing still, unless you consider the anemic fiddled GDP growth figures sub 3% as growth when your static wage has seen a purchasing power lower than +10 years ago.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4151940/The-national-debt-soared-251million-DAY-2016.html

Analogy: RMS Titanic 2 hour after the impact and you are a worker in 3rd class below decks. And the band plays "Everything is Awsome!"...

 

Expecting more builder and lender props, scrappage schemes... To help the fabled "hard working strivers" and illusory FTBs bying +400k $hit boxes in London etc.

 

Mr Hammond said any surplus cash would be used to ensure the UK had enough "gas in the tank" for the coming years. BBC

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5 hours ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

£1.69Tn (or 1.69 x 1000,000 x 1000,000 or 1.69 million millions) officially published UK national debt.

= £53,000+ per UK worker (~32 million people).

 

This is the main way the UK is financing its current account deficit. Gilts owned by foreigners increases by 400 bln since 2005, the cumulative current account since then by -600 bln.  The UK is slowly defaulting on its debt by devaluing its currency.   

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6 hours ago, satch said:

My favourite was Call Me Dave ... 'we are paying down the debt' .... while running a massive deficit. You suggest that £170bn is a lot of money .... anyway it seems to have disappeared ... along with the other IIRC £375bn.

Only around £20-30bn of the TFS has been deployed to date. The bulk will be drawn down in FY2017.

Of course, Carney can always do more when the Scheme is reviewed in August.

 

 

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Final plea to soften impact of business rates rise

Retail body and small businesses champion make last-ditch demand on chancellor for short-term relief on rises and long-term reform of tax. The trade body for retailers, the British Retail Consortium, has written to the chancellor, Philip Hammond, saying the high street needs a “fundamental reform” of the tax, while a survey by the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) found that business rates are the biggest concern for one in two small firms. Britain’s live music scene could also be harmed by the changes to the business rates, according to a new report.

The change in business rates payments from April is down to the revaluation of property in Britain. Guardian

 

Someone has to pay the debt recovery costs.

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20 hours ago, rollover said:

Mr Hammond said any surplus cash would be used to ensure the UK had enough "gas in the tank" for the coming years. BBC

As others have noted, Carney has filled the tank, and the boot with jerrycans, using the credit card.

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Talk he will increase national insurance rates on the self employed.So people who work for the likes of Hermes rather than benefits will be hit while the people sat at home can keep claiming away.If true it means instead of tackling the companies abusing the rules he hits the low paid workers instead.

If my national insurance goes up £300 a year as it looks like,il stop trading December the 15th every year and claim two months dole and re-start mid Feb,no stock.That way il get back double what he takes.366 days later i will repeat (needs to be a 1 year gap so its not means tested).

Its a bit like my phone company.Every time they put my bill up i end up paying less than before because i phone up say im leaving and they end up cutting it to below what it was in the first place.

 

 

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14 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Only around £20-30bn of the TFS has been deployed to date. The bulk will be drawn down in FY2017.

Of course, Carney can always do more when the Scheme is reviewed in August.

 

 

TFS doesn't have a hard limit. Banks can borrow 5% of base loan stock (around 110bln) + plus new net lending (23bln as of Q4 16), potentially a few hundred billions if you take into account margin on the collateral, which could be the loans they make.

The only real limit is the willingness of people to borrow at base rate plus bank spread (around 1.5%).

Banks have already borrowed 40bln from TFS based data from 01/03.    

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1 hour ago, slawek said:

TFS doesn't have a hard limit. Banks can borrow 5% of base loan stock (around 110bln) + plus new net lending (23bln as of Q4 16), potentially a few hundred billions if you take into account margin on the collateral, which could be the loans they make.

The only real limit is the willingness of people to borrow at base rate plus bank spread (around 1.5%).

Banks have already borrowed 40bln from TFS based data from 01/03.    

So the headline figure of £100bn is just an estimate of the additional lending that the Scheme will generate through Feb 2018?

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29 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

So the headline figure of £100bn is just an estimate of the additional lending that the Scheme will generate through Feb 2018?

Yes, it is the lowest borrowing limit.

From http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/markets/Documents/marketnotice160804apftfs.pdf

"Borrowing Allowance

20. Participants in a TFS Group may draw in aggregate up to the “Borrowing Allowance” for the TFS Group. The Borrowing Allowance for each TFS Group will be set at 5% of its Base Stock plus an amount equal to its most recent Net Lending amount. If a TFS Group’s Net Lending amount is negative at any time, its Borrowing Allowance remains at 5% of its Base Stock." 

Total base loan stock was around 1.2 trillion.

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1 hour ago, The Knimbies who say No said:

Median self employed income is something like £10,000.

And these are the people in line for a £300 tax hike.

With friends like these in Govt....

Well they did get a 12k income tax allowance.

UKGOV needs to stop p1ssing around the edge with NI + income tax and go for tax credits.

Bump up he hours FFS! A move from 16 -> 30 would remove 14x5xNMW from the TC bill.

And stop giving them to non UK nationals.

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1 hour ago, The Knimbies who say No said:

Median self employed income is something like £10,000.

And these are the people in line for a £300 tax hike.

With friends like these in Govt....

That's not an income - it is a hobby. Be better off doing 25 hours on minimum wage.

The median is heavily skewed by dog walkers and cup cake sellers doing just enough to max out the credits.

If they really had to live on the income alone, they would work a darned sight harder.

 

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4 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Well they did get a 12k income tax allowance.

UKGOV needs to stop p1ssing around the edge with NI + income tax and go for tax credits.

Bump up he hours FFS! A move from 16 -> 30 would remove 14x5xNMW from the TC bill.

And stop giving them to non UK nationals.

I feel there has to be a straightforward acknowledgement that the UK is a low wage, high cost environment which necessitates (to a certain degree) state handouts. Hitting up a cohort with barely a five figure income stream(and one which has fallen dramatically in the last decade) is pointless as far as the overall public finances are concerned.

Tax credits throw up extremely perverse incentives for certain groups, as you have often observed.

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3 minutes ago, The Knimbies who say No said:

I feel there has to be a straightforward acknowledgement that the UK is a low wage, high cost environment which necessitates (to a certain degree) state handouts. Hitting up a cohort with barely a five figure income stream(and one which has fallen dramatically in the last decade) is pointless as far as the overall public finances are concerned.

Tax credits throw up extremely perverse incentives for certain groups, as you have often observed.

True.

Part of the UK high cost is down to TC themselves, bringing half of Europe.

If you are going to have a system of ax credits - and Im not toally anti them, just the low hours and high payout the current system generates - then make sure that people are working similar hours to a FT employee.

Its going to be a long. hard road to unwind that moron Brown's vote-for-me! lunatic, uncosted stuff. Raising TC hours would be a first step.

Im not against the 12K tax free earning limit. Its a good idea. But it needs to be balanced by restrictions on migrants - inist on a minium wage for right to remain in the UK.

 

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10 minutes ago, CunningPlan said:

That's not an income - it is a hobby. Be better off doing 25 hours on minimum wage.

The median is heavily skewed by dog walkers and cup cake sellers doing just enough to max out the credits.

If they really had to live on the income alone, they would work a darned sight harder.

 

Well, as stated above, UK is a prohibitively costly place to live. Just how are we to get out of this mess? Osborne balked at welfare reform, the past 5? Govts of all stripes have painted themselves into a corner on welfare reform by pursuing policies to stiff people on their #1 lifetime expense- housing. In my view there would be considerable scope for slashing the assortment of insane payouts if there was a bit of honesty about the damage HPI focused housing lunacy has wreaked, and an attempt to reverse it.

300 quid will make little difference to anything, without wider scale reforms. And bigger reforms won't fly until a Govt fesses up and starts to reverse the great inflation in living costs, principally housing.

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6 minutes ago, spyguy said:

True.

Part of the UK high cost is down to TC themselves, bringing half of Europe.

If you are going to have a system of ax credits - and Im not toally anti them, just the low hours and high payout the current system generates - then make sure that people are working similar hours to a FT employee.

Its going to be a long. hard road to unwind that moron Brown's vote-for-me! lunatic, uncosted stuff. Raising TC hours would be a first step.

Im not against the 12K tax free earning limit. Its a good idea. But it needs to be balanced by restrictions on migrants - inist on a minium wage for right to remain in the UK.

 

I don't think we disagree, it's just so typical that the big picture is frequently missed by politicos of all stripes, and they seem to be allowed to get away with it.

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