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TheCountOfNowhere

How high can Carney's bubble go.

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Month on Month we all sit shaking our heads, looking at the asking prices ( that people are paying ) and we can scarcely believe it.

Post BrExit, by hook or by crook ( well dropping IRs and lending made up cash ) it seems like they've managed to get the bubble moving upwards again.  Outside london and now the north are booming ( apparently, well, except Aberdeen )  and everyone (someone) somewhere is willing to pay 2007+50% prices for houses that are still worth 2007-50% prices.

IRs can drop again of course, then they can actually start stealing your money directly.

How high can this mess ( Carney's bubble ) go before it collapses ?

I'm saying a 10% rise this year now,  based on low sales volumes and people desperate to spend their money that's earning nowt in the bank ( or up to 4% if your not thick ).

They wont stop now, I can see that, god know what the end game is now.

The budget will come and go but until the BoE toe the line, nothing is going to change.

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7 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Month on Month we all sit shaking our heads, looking at the asking prices ( that people are paying ) and we can scarcely believe it.

Post BrExit, by hook or by crook ( well dropping IRs and lending made up cash ) it seems like they've managed to get the bubble moving upwards again.  Outside london and now the north are booming ( apparently, well, except Aberdeen )  and everyone (someone) somewhere is willing to pay 2007+50% prices for houses that are still worth 2007-50% prices.

IRs can drop again of course, then they can actually start stealing your money directly.

How high can this mess ( Carney's bubble ) go before it collapses ?

I'm saying a 10% rise this year now,  based on low sales volumes and people desperate to spend their money that's earning nowt in the bank ( or up to 4% if your not thick ).

They wont stop now, I can see that, god know what the end game is now.

The budget will come and go but until the BoE toe the line, nothing is going to change.

Perhaps your made up metrics are flawed. Certainly seem to be

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I don't want to see them plateau. 

Would prefer a crash, if not, then I'm happy to go with the VI predictions and see them double over the next decade. Would be worth it to see the pain inflicted on any sitting govt. when these 3 bed semis in zone 6 are trading at 1.5m.

Edited by AvoidDebt

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It would certainly seem like there is no stopping it at the moment, but there are not enough people pressing the panic button to get out. All it would take is a small rise in interest rates to make this happen. Given the inflation occurring in food and everyday goods at the moment, the dysfunctional Bank Of England will have to act soon, probably over the next few months, probably without warning when you least expect it. Then it will be game on.

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I aggree a mid to high single figure rise maybe 6-7%. They have quite obviously indicated what the direction they want to take is. What annoys me so much is the writing has been on the wall for a while since they bailed out the banks and lowered interest rates, introduced funding for lending and created MMR with more holes than a cullander. If I had followed my gut instinct 4 years ago (buying as soon as HTB was announced) instead of waithing for this mythical crash coming i would be in a better position mentally and financially. The powers that be have made it quite clear that high house prices benefit them and enough voters don't care enough to vote/protest accordingly yet, the young are prepared to take it living a cushy life at home. I have tried retweeting @TheCountOfNowhere on twitter pestering politicians and the media speaking to friends rand strangers about the effects of high house prices but there is no one listening enough to care or protest. More young people cared about Brexit than their ability to have a home looking at twitter and recent demonstrations. I guess 8 years lodging without ones own space has taken its toll.

Over 5 years on this forum I have seen so many false dawns so may people claim we have reached a new peak only for prices to go higher presenting nice ecconomic arguments how china is pulling us down or Brexit will kill the housing market only for mark carny to be vigilent and loosen the credit taps whilst politicians and the public keep pressing the supply and demand argument. If you look at the monthy repayments on a 150k mortgage they are much lower than many peoples rent so mortgage repayments aren't going to put off new buyers.

Eventually houses will get cheaper (maybe not nomilally but in real terms) but if the question is can the bubble get bigger then you can look to australia sweden and new zealand to see possible likely scenarios. There is no sign of credit being tightened and the areas seeing falls (like kensington and Chelsea) have a very low percentage of mortgage lending. Is the government going to chuck my house deposit to keep the ponzi going. They seem to have no way out now as you cannot taper a ponzi.

Me personally will probably buy away from the south east soon. I can save 2k a month so soon will be able to afford for cash (or more likely small mortgage) somewhere in the sw/west midlands. I actively choose my opportunaties on where to live based upon house prices to my expected salary. So I won't be as badly burned as many who will load up on debt.

 

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17 minutes ago, simon49 said:

It would certainly seem like there is no stopping it at the moment, but there are not enough people pressing the panic button to get out. All it would take is a small rise in interest rates to make this happen. Given the inflation occurring in food and everyday goods at the moment, the dysfunctional Bank Of England will have to act soon, probably over the next few months, probably without warning when you least expect it. Then it will be game on.

You mean like they did about 6 years back, when official inflation was running at 5%+ ? Oh no, wait, they didn't do anything then as they were "looking through it". They'll do exactly the same now.

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35 minutes ago, simon49 said:

It would certainly seem like there is no stopping it at the moment, but there are not enough people pressing the panic button to get out. All it would take is a small rise in interest rates to make this happen. Given the inflation occurring in food and everyday goods at the moment, the dysfunctional Bank Of England will have to act soon, probably over the next few months, probably without warning when you least expect it. Then it will be game on.

You're dreaming.

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24 minutes ago, dpg50000 said:

You mean like they did about 6 years back, when official inflation was running at 5%+ ? Oh no, wait, they didn't do anything then as they were "looking through it". They'll do exactly the same now.

 

6 minutes ago, GreenDevil said:

You're dreaming.

I totally see where your coming from, the actions of the Bank Of England have been deplorable, but look whats happening in America, 2 rate rises, soon to be a 3rd ?  That's the difference this time. 

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1 minute ago, simon49 said:

 

I totally see where your coming from, the actions of the Bank Of England have been deplorable, but look whats happening in America, 2 rate rises, soon to be a 3rd ?  That's the difference this time. 

I hope you're right, but unfortunately I don't think you are.

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5 minutes ago, simon49 said:

 

I totally see where your coming from, the actions of the Bank Of England have been deplorable, but look whats happening in America, 2 rate rises, soon to be a 3rd ?  That's the difference this time. 

They've managed rate rises without the financial system imploding, which is another big difference to 2006

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Not as if we hadn't been warned. HPI forever from the Tory boys. The suggestion is implicit in every OBR forecast since 2012!

Same as it ever was.

First Osborne, who got taxpayers to pay his mortgage. And now millionaire property developer, Hammond.

Same as it ever was.

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Edited by zugzwang

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It's a completely dysfunctional market. Can't even recall 2007 being this insane. Welcome to the era of Fake News, Fake Prices. 

Lenders ‘wrecking one in five transactions because of down-valuations’ after deals agreed

Banks and building societies are refusing to lend on about one in five properties because of down-valuations by their surveyors.

http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/lenders-turning-away-one-in-five-transactions-because-of-down-valuations/

 

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It can and will go higher.  The base rate cannot go up because of the weight of debt that is being serviced now, and I think the BoE will reduce the base rate to 0.0% at some point this year for another "shot in the arm" for house prices and debt.  Look at NZ, Aus and Canada - there's more room for growth.

Edited by canbuywontbuy

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it's our mindset that is wrong.

We need to change from thinking they want (or care for) us to actually own our own home, and take a shift to the thought that they just want to loan large amounts of pretend digital money against houses people think they own.

Once that fact is clear, we can look for the reasons behind it.   It certainly allows them to lend people even more money in other types of repayment vehicles and call it "secured."

But as nobody actually gets hurt in the city if  a punter defaults, then who actually gives a fukk. 

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13 minutes ago, canbuywontbuy said:

It can and will go higher.  The base rate cannot go up because of the weight of debt that is being serviced now, and I think the BoE will reduce the base rate to 0.0% at some point this year for another "shot in the arm" for house prices and debt.  Look at NZ, Aus and Canada - there's more room for growth.

I agree. The brexit rate cut was a real wtf moment. Total flip flopping over modest ir rises for years and then halved then on a whim.

But the various govt committees are onto it:

 

http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKKBN16712C

 

Having been a senior employee of some big finance firms, and having heavily connected family, she claims independence. And mark Carney just appointed her as his deputy, it's his discretion, not the govt's.

 

Hogg was asked how her brother's role as a strategy executive at Barclays (BARC.L) might conflict with her duties as a member of the Prudential Regulation Committee, which oversees the country's banks, if Barclays were to arise as an issue.

"I haven't sat on the PRC yet. I think it's certainly a possibility that I could recuse myself," Hogg said, adding that she had not considered removing herself from decisions on Barclays before Tuesday's hearing in parliament.

She also said she saw no potential for conflict of interest over her mother's role as a non-executive director of the Financial Conduct Authority, Britain's main regulator to combat irregularities in markets.

Edited by Si1

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It strikes me that the first 'Anglo' country to let their ponzi collapse will benefit from such a brain-influx, not to mention all the cash they bring, that it would make it almost preferable to be first in the queue.

I know this is top of my options list at present.

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1 minute ago, Maynardgravy said:

It strikes me that the first 'Anglo' country to let their ponzi collapse will benefit from such a brain-influx, not to mention all the cash they bring, that it would make it almost preferable to be first in the queue.

I know this is top of my options list at present.

You forgot all the brains and the morals are in banking here in the UK. You are just a pleb.

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52 minutes ago, Si1 said:

I agree. The brexit rate cut was a real wtf moment. Total flip flopping over modest ir rises for years and then halved then on a whim.

 

Yes, but to me this is an indication of weakness. How on earth can anyone think that a cut of 0.25% is going to keep us out of the economic abyss? It's a nonsense and IMV shows just how weak they are.

Can they go to NIRP at the retail level; I don't think so; the peasants might really revolt then. What they might do is to beef up TLS and go negative here (if they can legally) but that would be absurd and really indicate that it's game over.

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1 minute ago, crouch said:

Yes, but to me this is an indication of weakness. How on earth can anyone think that a cut of 0.25% is going to keep us out of the economic abyss? It's a nonsense and IMV shows just how weak they are.

Can they go to NIRP at the retail level; I don't think so; the peasants might really revolt then. What they might do is to beef up TLS and go negative here (if they can legally) but that would be absurd and really indicate that it's game over.

Thanks, interesting.

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15 minutes ago, crouch said:

Yes, but to me this is an indication of weakness. How on earth can anyone think that a cut of 0.25% is going to keep us out of the economic abyss? It's a nonsense and IMV shows just how weak they are.

Can they go to NIRP at the retail level; I don't think so; the peasants might really revolt then. What they might do is to beef up TLS and go negative here (if they can legally) but that would be absurd and really indicate that it's game over.

Indeed, the financial system is fundamentally flawed when combined with the financial model of productive industries.

The financial system has to lend ever increasing amounts, the productive system has to pay in real terms ever reducing amounts.

Meanwhile the tax burden steadily increases.

So houses, cars, furniture, phones what else can they get you hooked on credit for?

Borrow to rent, well they have been giving that a go for a long time (shared ownership).

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13 hours ago, simon49 said:

It would certainly seem like there is no stopping it at the moment, but there are not enough people pressing the panic button to get out. All it would take is a small rise in interest rates to make this happen. Given the inflation occurring in food and everyday goods at the moment, the dysfunctional Bank Of England will have to act soon, probably over the next few months, probably without warning when you least expect it. Then it will be game on.

Sorry but rising consumer prices has nothing to do with increasing interest rates.  Back in the day when we had pay rises and human beings had a certain amount of collective bargaining power we could push wages up and thus interest rate rises were applied against our wage rises. Globaisation has seen that one off.:(  

Look how much real inflation BOE has 'SEEN THROUGH' over the last decade. There is no concern that wages are not rising with real inflation, nor that prices are rising for the necessities of life  'THEY' balance that with cheaper TV's etc in order to bamboozle us (the daily mail reader that is)

The trigger for increasing interest rates will be something as yet undetermined, most certainly not our living costs.

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52 minutes ago, frederico said:

Indeed, the financial system is fundamentally flawed when combined with the financial model of productive industries.

The financial system has to lend ever increasing amounts, the productive system has to pay in real terms ever reducing amounts.

Meanwhile the tax burden steadily increases.

So houses, cars, furniture, phones what else can they get you hooked on credit for?

Borrow to rent, well they have been giving that a go for a long time (shared ownership).

Health insurance.. it's a biggie.

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